Patriots vs. Colts: Full New England Game Preview

No matter what the New England Patriots tell the media, it seems more probable than not that they've had the Indianapolis Colts on their minds for the better part of the past nine months. In a season where the Patriots have exhibited a relentless focus over the first four games, New England will surely bring its best effort for the team that sent its offseason spiraling into chaos.

Ever since that fateful AFC Championship Game, the Pats and Colts have continued on roughly similar trajectories. Whereas New England is 4-0 with the best point differential in the AFC, the Colts have managed to tread water at 3-2, narrowly escaping against three AFC South opponents. Indianapolis spent much of its offseason adding veterans throughout the roster, but thus far, the likes of Frank Gore, Andre Johnson and Trent Cole have largely flopped.

Granted, Andrew Luck's health has played the largest role in Indy's slow start, and with Luck using the past two weeks to recover from his shoulder woes, it's possible he could be back at full strength against the Patriots. Regardless of how the Pats have dominated the Colts in four meetings over the past three seasons, a full-strength Luck gives Indianapolis a game-changer who could threaten New England's perfect record.

The Pats and their fans should be fully pumped for Sunday night, but motivation alone only carries a team so far. Read on for full analysis on the most critical players and matchups for this AFC title-game rematch.

Week 5 Results and Recap

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The early Week 4 bye may eventually cause the Patriots to wear down near the end of the season, but New England certainly appeared fresh in its first game back. The Pats dismantled an undermanned Dallas Cowboys squad 30-6, pulling away in the second half after a rough 20 minutes to open the game.

Pass-protection woes kept Dallas in the game, as New England conceded five first-half sacks for the first time since 2001. The tackle rotation of Nate Solder, Sebastian Vollmer and Marcus Cannon was particularly ineffective against the Cowboys' edge-rushers, though Solder may have been playing through an elbow injury that knocked him out of the second half.

Regardless, Dion Lewis continued his storybook season by catalyzing the Pats' stagnant offense during the second quarter, compiling 93 yards from scrimmage and slipping his way through four defenders for a touchdown that would have made Patches O'Houlihan proud. The Pats scored on three out of four possessions spanning the end of the second quarter to the start of the third, turning a 3-3 tie into a 20-3 blowout in short order.

Of course, the offense had so much time to gear up largely due to the defense's suffocating performance. New England limited the Cowboys' running backs to 3.9 yards per carry, consistently forcing Brandon Weeden into unfavorable down-and-distance situations. The Cowboys went three-and-out on six of their first seven possessions and never really awoke from their slumber to challenge the Pats defense.

The 24-point win over a diminished Cowboys squad is not one many will remember in the story of the 2015 Patriots season. For now, though, it's hard to complain with the highly efficient and professional effort New England puts forth every week, regardless of its opposition's capabilities.

News and Notes

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Ripple Effect of Solder Injury

After escaping with strong health through the first three games, the Pats suffered their first major setback of the year when Nate Solder went on injured reserve with a torn biceps. In speculating about how the Pats might replace Solder, NESN's Doug Kyed not only mentioned Marcus Cannon but also tight end Michael Williams, who is a converted tackle:

"

The Patriots now have just two offensive tackles on their roster, so they’ll likely have to sign another player before Sunday night’s visit to the Indianapolis Colts. The Patriots have Cameron Fleming and Blaine Clausell on their practice squad, so they’re the top candidates to join the 53-man roster. Tight end Michael Williams began his career as a tackle with the Detroit Lions and presumably could move back there now that Solder is out. 

"

Pats fans have certainly had their frustrations with Solder at times, but after signing him to a two-year, $20.1 million extension in the offseason, New England has committed the next two seasons to having Solder protecting Tom Brady's blind side. If Solder had not signed the extension, his free-agency experience would have been fascinating, as the former first-round pick is a hulking (6'8", 325 lbs) specimen whose level of performance has vacillated at times, especially over the past two years.

For now, the Pats figure to slide Cannon in at left tackle, which is what they did against the Cowboys when Solder missed the second half. Williams is an intriguing idea, but it's likelier that he remains part of power personnel packages. Look for Cameron Fleming, a 2014 fourth-round pick on the practice squad, to potentially serve as the swing tackle if the Patriots don't acquire a veteran.

Colts a Referendum on Pats D

Most figured the Patriots defense would regress after the secondary's offseason decimation, but that hasn't been the case so far. New England's defense has exceeded expectations, whether you want to measure the performance by conventional statistics (19 points per game, eighth overall) or advanced ones (ninth in DVOA, per Football Outsiders).

In an insightful analysis on the Pats defense, Andy Benoit of SI.com praises the unit's strength up the middle with Devin McCourty and Jamie Collins, as well as Malcolm Butler's rapid ascension into a capable top cornerback.  However, Benoit also believes that Indianapolis' cavalcade of receivers could stretch the secondary too thin, making this contest a referendum on the long-term viability of the Pats defense:

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The more film teams see of a so-so player, the more vulnerabilities they’ll discover. Once those vulnerabilities are exploited, the whole league smells blood. If that’s going to happen to New England’s corners, it will start this Sunday night. However it shakes out, the contest against the Colts will reveal a lot about the Patriots’ defense.

"

New England has faced a slate of limited offenses thus far, with the Le'Veon Bell-less Pittsburgh Steelers representing the toughest challenge of the season. Andrew Luck may not be at full health for this game, but even a slightly diminished Luck is capable of posting huge numbers. If New England continues to hold up after a tougher test at Lucas Oil Stadium, though, then it might be time to believe in this crew.

Malcom Brown Coming On

First-round pick Malcom Brown has been relatively quiet so far, registering one sack and three tackles while playing 33.6 percent of the defensive snaps through five games, per Football Outsiders. However, Bill Belichick went out of his way to praise Brown following his Week 5 effort against Dallas, per ESPN.com's Mike Reiss:

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I thought he played probably his best game against Dallas.

Malcom works hard and he’s a smart guy. He understands what we want him to do. It’s just a big learning curve like it is for every rookie coming into the National Football League, playing against players that are more comparable athletically than what there was in college and seeing the different schemes and dealing with experienced players that when you’re an inexperienced player, that’s an adjustment.

"

The first sentence is a strong statement from a coach who is notorious for his penurious doling out of praise.  In analyzing Belichick's quotes, Reiss went on to point out three plays from the Cowboys game in which he viewed Brown as demonstrating "good pad level, balance, power and technique."

Brown is learning a new system in New England's hybrid fronts, as he was more of a one-gapper at Texas. The Pats also have the luxury of waiting on his development, given the presences of Dominique Easley, Sealver Siliga and Alan Branch as viable rotation players. However, Brown's quick development is an encouraging sign that he might be ready for a more full-time role as soon as 2016.

Latest Injury News

Tim Sharp/Associated Press

Patriots			Colts
Player	Injury	Status	Player	Injury	Status
Dont'a Hightower	Ribs	Limited	Jerrell Freeman	Groin	DNP
Trey Flowers	Knee/Shoulder	Limited	Tyler Varga	Concussion	DNP
Tarell Brown	Foot	Limited	Trent Cole	Back	Limited
			Nate Irving	Knee
			Andrew Luck	Shoulder
			Bjoern Werner	Hamstring	Full

With Solder on injured reserve, the only new injury for the Patriots this week is Hightower. The three-down linebacker injured his ribs against Dallas in the first quarter and failed to return to the game. The fact that he's participating in practice is likely a good sign for his eventual availability, but it might behoove the Pats to give him some rest. 

There's no questioning Hightower's toughness, and if he played through a labrum tear that required major offseason surgery in 2014, he'll likely find a way onto the field with this rib injury.

The obvious injury concern for the Colts surrounds Luck. According to the Indianapolis Star's Zak Keefer, Chuck Pagano suggested that Luck was "headed in the right direction. Per WTHR, the coach still labeled Luck as day to day and kept his game status in the dark. For what it's worth, at least one prominent Colts reporter doesn't see Luck as particularly limited anymore:

"

Andrew Luck seems to be throwing normally and without duress at practice today.

— Bob Kravitz (@bkravitz) October 14, 2015"

The rest of Indy's roster is relatively healthy, with the exception of starting inside linebacker Jerrell Freeman, who missed last week's game with a groin injury. If Luck is available, though, we should see these two teams at relatively full strength on Sunday night.

All injury report information via Patriots.com.

Key Matchups

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Dion Lewis and LeGarrette Blount vs. Colts Front Seven

Like a bad movie franchise, Patriots vs. Colts keeps running back the same script, with New England's ground game plowing over Indy's overmatched front seven. In the past three meetings, the Patriots have averaged 219 rushing yards per game and have scored an unfathomable 13 rushing touchdowns.

That's as blatant an illustration of dominance as one can conjure. Indianapolis has shuffled much of its front-seven personnel from last year, with three new starters along the defensive line (Henry Anderson, David Parry, Kendall Langford) and free-agent signing Trent Cole starting at outside linebacker. The early returns have been acceptable—according to Football Outsiders' opponent-adjusted DVOA metric, the Colts rank 12th in run-defense DVOA after ranking 19th in 2014.

The Pats aren't necessarily likely to follow the exact same game plan they've created the past three meetings. Unlike past seasons, there's no natural fullback on the roster, and New England hasn't used much of its "Jumbo" package with six offensive linemen, apart from at the goal line. But until the Colts actually force the Patriots to turn to the air, it would be foolish not to feed Lewis and Blount and test Indy's new-look front seven.

Logan Ryan and Tarell Brown vs. T.Y. Hilton

Indianapolis' top receiver was a non-factor in two meetings against the Patriots last season, catching just four of 13 targets for 60 yards and no touchdowns. New England was able to double-team Hilton on nearly every play, utilizing slot corner Kyle Arrington underneath with free safety Devin McCourty overlapping over the top.

The Pats could conceivably try that strategy again on Sunday, but with Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner long gone, Bill Belichick would be placing tons of faith in his perimeter corners to hold up in man coverage. What is clear is that Hilton will line up in multiple spots—according to Pro Football Focus, 21 of his 50 targets this year have come from the slot, where he's lined up on 39.2 percent of his snaps.

Thus, defending Hilton will likely be a multi-man job. Against Dallas, Ryan earned the start at right cornerback in base packages but often came off the field in nickel, with the veteran Brown playing in the slot while rookie Justin Coleman manned the right side. No matter where Hilton lines up before the snap, containing Indy's best deep threat should be New England's top defensive priority.

Julian Edelman vs. Vontae Davis

As one of the game's elite man-coverage corners, Davis offers the Colts a unique weapon capable of shadowing the opponents' top receivers. Considering Edelman has garnered 14 more targets than any other receiver on the Patriots, it's a safe bet that the Colts will try to keep Davis glued to Edelman as often as possible.

Edelman was able to wriggle loose often enough last year against the Colts, compiling 14 catches for 148 yards in two meetings. Screens and quick sweeps to Edelman are staples of the Pats playbook, so Josh McDaniels will find ways to get the ball into his hands. The real question is whether Brady can find his favorite target on the all-important third downs.

Edelman already has 19 first downs this season and would likely rank in the top five or 10 of that category if the Pats had not already had their bye week. Everyone knows the success New England has had moving the ball on the ground against Indy, and Rob Gronkowski's presence obviously looms large. Still, Edelman will be the Patriots receiver who likely faces the toughest challenge on Sunday.

Matchup X-Factors

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Patriots X-Factor of the Week: Sebastian Vollmer

The offensive line had its worst showing of the year last week against the Cowboys, and Vollmer was certainly not exempt from New England's struggles. The typically estimable right tackle had his share of issues with Jack Crawford and Demarcus Lawrence, giving up numerous pressures and losing the speed battle around the edge.

This week, Vollmer might have the toughest pass-protection challenge of any Patriots offensive lineman.  Though Robert Mathis is back at his familiar spot on the weak-side edge after missing all of the 2014 season, the 34-year-old has shown considerable rust so far. Thus far, Mathis has one sack and two tackles and has played only 24 percent of Indy's defensive snaps, per snap counts from Football Outsiders.

The bigger pass-rushing threat might be across the formation in Trent Cole. The longtime Philadelphia Eagle has thrived in his first season in Indianapolis, compiling a team-high 10 quarterback hurries, per Pro Football Focus. Along with Erik Walden, Cole has been a stalwart on the edge for the Colts so far.

The 33-year-old Cole doesn't possess the same speed that Dallas' edge-rushers did, so Vollmer should theoretically match up better in pass protection. Given that Cole has also been a strong run defender for years, this matchup should be a nice battle to watch for three downs on Sunday.

Colts X-Factor of the Week: Henry Anderson

Stopping the run isn't a one-man effort, but the third-round rookie out of Stanford represents Indianapolis' best hope to finally stymie the Patriots running game. Based on run-stop stats from PFF, Anderson has maintained elite company through the first five weeks of the season:

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Defensive stops for 3-4 DEs so far: J.J. Watt: 19 Henry Anderson: 18 Malik Jackson: 15. Pretty good company, rookie.

— Pro Football Focus (@PFF) October 12, 2015"

Anderson is already the centerpiece of the Colts' revamped defensive line, one that appears stronger than the uninspiring unit from the past two seasons. The lack of depth may catch up with Indy over the long haul, but for now, Anderson and his fellow Stanford rookie David Parry have given the Colts a sturdy interior foundation.

Anderson is a three-down player, so the Pats will also need to deal with him in pass protection. A high-motor technician who wins with effort rather than natural fluidity or quickness, Anderson doesn't figure to give the Pats nearly as many problems in the passing game given the quick, rhythmic passing game New England employs.

Prediction: Patriots 37, Colts 29

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The Patriots have beaten the Andrew Luck-era Colts by an impossible average of 29 points per game. Angry Pats fans would surely like to see a similar margin of victory on Sunday and probably wouldn't be totally satisfied to see this predicted one-possession win come true.

New England certainly seems like the better team at the moment, and so long as the Patriots offense remains humming, a blowout is always a distinct possibility. The general pattern in these games against Indianapolis has seen the New England offense race out to a quick lead, only for the lead to snowball out of control as Luck forces some questionable throws in an attempt to erase the deficit.

If that sounds familiar, it's because Luck has largely followed that script this year, with a woeful 6.0 percent interception percentage, which would have ranked dead last in 2014 by a wide margin. That figure will drop as the season progresses, but for the Colts to pull off the upset, Luck must remain under control while the defense generates a turnover or two and a couple of quick three-and-outs.

The Pats simply have a much larger margin for error at the moment, even though we won't predict a blowout here. So long as the Patriots continue to roll along with mechanical efficiency, they don't need a huge victory to make a statement.

Prediction: Patriots 37, Colts 29