NFL Fantasy Football Week 5: Last-Minute Advice for Setting Your Roster

In my longtime fantasy football league, I took the New Orleans Saints' Deuce McAllister and the Green Bay Packers' Javon Walker as my top two picks in 2005. By Week 5, both were lost for the season with serious knee injuries. I changed my team name to "ACL" and won the league in part because I started the Saints' Zach Hilton in the finals and rode Green Bay's Samkon Gado for a good stretch.

For this week the Gado and Hilton-like assets might just be Chicago's Marquess Wilson and Baltimore's Kamar Aiken. We need such ascension to help us get past our assorted underwhelming and injured assets.

The point is, even if our fantasy fortunes are low, we still have 61.5 percent of the fantasy football regular season left to go. You've seen it happen—that fantasy team in your league that has streaked for a six-game winning streak after starting 1-3. Being proactive can sometimes prove prescient. 

With active and informed management in mind, please join us as we discuss some of the most important injury scenarios, undervalued commodities and streaming defenses with an eye on preparing for Week 5 of the fantasy football campaign.

As the weather turns across the country in the coming weeks, we'll offer information on how this might influence our fantasy football fortunes in given scenarios. For now, NFLWeather.com suggests we're looking good for the Week 5 slate.

Please feel free to share your lineup questions and recommendations in the comments section.

Waiver-Wire Wonders for Week 5: Kamar Aiken and Willie Snead Offer Value

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The fantasy market sometimes demands you take risks with your lineup. This is especially true when byes and injuries influence availability to the degree we're seeing this week. With multiple star signal-callers and stud receivers out of action, assets such as the Saints' Willie Snead or the Ravens' Kamar Aiken become viable fantasy starters.

In this section, we discuss players who are available in more than half of ESPN fantasy leagues who might be able to help those in need of some spot-start support.

The Ravens' Kamar Aiken Is Angling for Awesome Usage

Back in August when you drafted your fantasy championship-bound fantasy football team, it appeared laughable to suggest an undrafted journeyman wideout out of UCF playing for the Ravens would be starting on your roster in Week 5, but here we are. I'm there too, my friend (only in one league—let's not take this too far). 

Jokes aside, the Ravens' Steve Smith Sr. has been ruled unlikely to play Sunday, per a report from ESPN's Jamison Hensley. Even though he missed a week of action to date, Smith still accounts for 35.4 percent of the signal-caller Joe Flacco's passing yards.

With such a massive void in usage available for Aiken to consume, you can address wideout woes for this week with a few clicks. He is still available in nearly 70 percent of ESPN leagues. For a measure of his matchup, Aiken faces a Cleveland secondary that allows the eighth-most fantasy points per game to the position this year.

The Saints' Willie Snead Is a Sound Sleeper

Owned in less than 30 percent of ESPN fantasy leagues, the Saints' Willie Snead has been a steady target for New Orleans of late, with at least five receptions or six standard fantasy points each week this season. The Eagles have allowed the second-most receiving yards and touchdowns to receivers since the start of last season, which sets up Snead for a nice Sunday in a game with a rich point total, per Odds Shark.

Being Passing Pals with Aaron Rodgers Can Prove Profitable

The Packers' passing game has certainly suffered some losses this year, with superstar receiver Jordy Nelson lost for the season and Davante Adams unlikely to play this week due to a lingering ankle injury, per ESPN.com's Rob Demovsky. 

One option to consider in spot duty at wideout or flex in deeper formats is Ty Montgomery, who played all but one of the Packers' offensive snaps in Week 4. While Montgomery has only been targeted on 13 percent of his routes so far this season, according to ESPN databases, news of James Jones' sore hamstring, per Fox Sports, potentially offers a strong window for usage for the rookie receiver.

Even though the Rams defense has proved capable, cheap shares of the Packers' passing game have long proved worthy.

Seattle Suggestion

Seahawks' rookie running Thomas Rawls remains the leading candidate for feature backfield duties with Marshawn Lynch out of action. The undefeated Bengals deserve all of the positive attention their hot start has earned them, but let's not forget they rank 26th in fantasy points allowed to running backs per game since the start of last season using ESPN standard scoring. Still available in a massive majority of ESPN leagues, Rawls is a fine flex asset for Week 5, as well as stellar daily fantasy value.

Bold Predictions

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Going bold can sometimes hurt. I'm 35 and own about four gallons of Cholula hot sauce, so I do know the cost of bold living. Going bold in fantasy football offers a wide variance of risk and reward.

Play it safe with that middling veteran tailback? Or get crazy and start the emerging hand in a committee? No really, what do you guys think? 

Let's go over some bold predictions for Week 5. 

Philadelphia's DeMarco Murray Produces a Top-Five Fantasy Day Among Running Backs

About 15 percent of this projection has to do with Rob Ryan's hair. It's too glorious to capably produce a strong rush defense, or so the data say, as New Orleans has allowed the highest yards per carry (4.68) and the third-most rushing touchdowns (21) since the start of last season.

Murray has averaged the fewest yards per carry of any back with as many as 25 carries this season after having led football in rushing and yards from scrimmage last season. That changes this week. Given such lean results to date and spotty usage, it's officially bold to predict Murray enjoys a top-five fantasy outing this week that includes over 100 yards from scrimmage and a score.

The Packers' Ty Montgomery Tops 100 Total Yards

We already promoted Montgomery as a worthy waiver asset to consider in deep and desperate flex situations. For daily play, there might be even more reward, as bottom-dollar pricing and a role as an every-down fixture offer rare upside for this rookie in Aaron Rodgers' offense.

The Rams, despite a strong reputation, rank 25th in yards allowed to wideouts since the start of last season. Last we checked, Rodgers can even outproduce poor hair styling, even when missing some key receivers. With Montgomery seeing snaps in the backfield already this season and due for a snap share over 80 percent versus a beatable secondary, we're going bold with over 100 total yards.

Michael Vick Will Be Top 12 in Fantasy Points at QB

We can't lie: A good deal of this is based on the fact the Chargers just allowed the Browns' Josh McCown to post his most passing yards in a game since 2005. The Steelers' firepower is far superior to the Browns', especially as Michael Vick has now had a long week to acclimate to the scheme. Let's aim for 300 total yards and two touchdowns for Vick, as the Monday night lights have always been good to him.

Questionable Calls: Week 5's Biggest Fantasy Football Injury Scenarios

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This week doesn't present much mystery on the injury front in regard to top fantasy commodities. Oh, plenty of big names are ailing, but there are few murky scenarios that are true game-time decisions.

We've already learned that the Seahawks' Marshawn Lynch has been ruled out. The Bears' Alshon Jeffery is likely to miss yet another game with a lingering calf ailment, per Rich Campbell of the Chicago Tribune (h/t ProFootballTalk).

With several such injuries removing proven performers from action this week, let's focus on some injury-related scenarios that might offer some fantasy value in Week 5.

With the Bears' Alshon Jeffery Still Ailing, Marquess Wilson Makes Sense

The Chicago Sun-Times' Adam Jahns suggests we could see the Bears' Marquess Wilson featured in Chicago's passing game in place of Alshon Jeffery and Eddie Royal, who both appear unlikely to be active on Sunday:

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The Bears might need wide receiver Marquess Wilson more than ever Sunday against the Chiefs. He might just be the Bears’ No. 1 receiver come game time if Alshon Jeffery and Eddie Royal can’t play. As daunting as that sounds, the Bears believe Wilson’s performance in their 22-20 win against the Raiders – 80 yards receiving on six catches, including two on the game-winning drive – is a sign of what’s to come.

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The Bears play the Chiefs this week. The Chiefs have allowed 22.3 percent more fantasy points per game to receivers than any other team in football this season. Sounds pretty fun. With Wilson, the inherent risks are offset by real matchup and usage rewards.

As is par for the course, tight end Martellus Bennett is a strong chalk play in daily games, but it's Wilson who could really take off given that the Chiefs have allowed the most yards (985) and touchdowns (10) to receivers this season.

Buffalo Backfield Blues: Choosing Between Boobie and Boom

We're not being crass when we say the Buffalo backfield is a mess, with ESPN.com's Mike Rodak reporting LeSean McCoy's hamstring ailment will certainly take some time to heal.

In that same report, Rodak confirms rookie Karlos Williams will be out for at least Week 5, with Boobie Dixon and newly signed Boom Herron set to share duties. Several beat scribes have suggested Herron could consume the bulk of the work in facing the Titans, who rank 29th in rushing yards allowed since the start of last season. 

My money is on Herron, given the vibe from the beat and the fact he's the more capable change-of-pace option for a road tilt with a Titans passing offense that might just be better than it seems. Predicting game flow is a dangerous pursuit, but so is playing the waiver the wire. With shares of McCoy and even Williams now proving frustrating, I'd rather go Boom than Boobie in this situation.

Streaming of Vegas Week 5: Let the Desert Help on Defense

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How can we leverage the point projection system that Vegas and offshore sportsbooks produce each week in seeking streaming D/ST options? The foundation of the idea has us favoring favorites in games with point totals under 46.5. 

The results showed favorites in games below this threshold found themselves in the top 10 in ESPN fantasy leagues 49 percent of the time. Here is a simple breakdown of the quadrants for this concept: 

• Favorites in games with a point total under 46.5: 49 percent in the top 10 of fantasy D/ST units.
• Favorites in games with a point total over 46.5: 38 percent top-10 rate. 
• Underdogs in games with a point total under 46.5: 29 percent top-10 rate. 
• Underdogs in games over a point total over 46.5: 21 percent top-10 rate. 

We can also use these trends to help identify some potentially productive under-the-radar D/ST units for this week.

The New York Football Giants Are Poised To Pounce on the 49ers

As heavy home favorites in a game with a low point total of 43, per Odds Shark, the Giants could reap major rewards for the streaming crowd in facing a reeling San Francisco offense that allows the most fantasy points per game to opposing D/ST groups. 

Can Kansas City's D/ST Get Back on Track? 

The Bears have allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing D/ST groups this season, while the Chiefs are sixth in sacks since the start of last season. The Bears are likely to be missing several key offensive components, namely their starting wideouts. With a combined point total still in our friendly fantasy range of just 45 and as massive home favorites, per Odds Shark—putting Chicago around 19 points for a team projected total—the Chiefs are an interesting streaming asset and DFS play to consider.