Fantasy Football Week 5: Advanced Stats, Trends to Maximize Your Lineup

Week 5 of the fantasy football season is here, and it’s time to once again look at some of the advanced stats, trends and metrics you can use to maximize your lineup potential.

Player projections for the week’s top five options at each position will also be provided in this article.

Tom Brady is the top fantasy option at quarterback this week, but the real story at the position is that the Arizona Cardinals' Carson Palmer steps into the top five for the first time this season. What can you expect from the signal-caller?

Baltimore Ravens running back Justin Forsett also finds himself in the top five for the first time this season thanks to his favorable matchup against the Cleveland Browns, who have given up the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs so far this season, per ESPN.com.

Buffalo Bills tight end Charles Clay checks in at No. 5 this week at his position. Inside you’ll find some stats and metrics that indicate he could be in for another big week.

Let’s get to some more of the stats and metrics that will help you dominate in Week 5.

Quarterbacks: Fire Up Carson Palmer This Week

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Carson Palmer

Palmer ranks No. 4 this week with a favorable matchup against the Detroit Lions on tap. This might seem high for Palmer at first glance, but he has the fourth-most points among quarterbacks so far this season. In other words, Palmer is right where he belongs.

The Projections

1. Tom Brady (at DAL): 30-of-43, 357 yards, 3 touchdowns, 0 interceptions—26.3 fantasy points
2. Aaron Rodgers (vs. STL): 25-of-35, 321 yards, 3 touchdowns, 0 interceptions—24.8 fantasy points
3. Matt Ryan (vs. WAS): 24-of-37, 313 yards, 3 touchdowns, 0 interceptions—24.5 fantasy points
4. Carson Palmer (at DET): 23-of-33, 274 yards, 2 touchdowns, 0 interceptions—19.0 fantasy points
5. Peyton Manning (at OAK): 25-of-39, 317 yards, 2 touchdowns, 1 interception—18.7 fantasy points

Stats to Know

Andy Dalton may have the second-most fantasy points among quarterbacks so far this season, but it’s hard to trust him against the Seattle Seahawks, who have given up the sixth-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this year, per ESPN.com. The Seahawks haven’t given up a passing touchdown since Week 2—when they faced Aaron Rodgers (in Green Bay).

Brady is ranked No. 1 heading into Week 5 despite the fact that he’s playing against the Dallas Cowboys, who have been underrated against quarterbacks so far this season. The Cowboys have given up the eighth-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, per ESPN.com. And that includes top signal-callers such as Matt Ryan and Drew Brees. Brady will have to earn that No. 1 ranking.

You can lean on Marcus Mariota as a QB1 this week. He’ll play against the Bills, who have given up a surprising number of fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks so far this season. (It’s surprising because Rex Ryan coaches them.) The Bills are currently ranked 30th in terms of fantasy points given up to quarterbacks, per ESPN.com.

Brady and Rodgers are the only two quarterbacks who have started every game without an interception.

What the Metrics Say

According to Pro Football Focus,  Palmer leads the league in "yards in air" with 694. That is the number of yards Palmer has thrown for excluding yards after the catch.

Brady is taking an average of just 2.04 seconds to attempt a pass this season—fastest in the league. This makes him extremely difficult to sack.

Derek Carr has been under pressure on just 22 percent of his dropbacks so far this season, making him the least-pressured quarterback in the league. That could change in Week 5, however, when the Oakland Raiders play host to the Denver Broncos. The Broncos currently lead the league with 18 sacks, according to NFL.com.

Running Backs: Justin Forsett a Solid RB1 in Week 5

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Justin Forsett

Le'Veon Bell is the consensus No. 1 option at the running back position for the second week in a row, but the real surprise is that Forsett finds himself among the elite this week. He has the 26th-most fantasy points among running backs so far this season, which means he hasn’t been performing at even an RB2 level.

But things are looking up for Forsett; he gained an impressive 150 yards on the ground last week and was asked to carry the ball 27 times. The real reason he ranks so low on the season as a whole is because he hasn’t scored a touchdown—but that’s a streak that’s bound to break against the Browns. As noted in the opening slide, the Browns have given up the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs so far this season, per ESPN.com.

The Projections

1. Le’Veon Bell (at SD): 21 carries, 121 yards, 2 touchdowns; 6 receptions, 57 yards, 0 touchdowns—29.8 fantasy points
2. Jamaal Charles (vs. CHI): 16 carries, 93 yards, 1 touchdown; 4 receptions, 39 yards, 1 touchdown—25.2 fantasy points
3. Eddie Lacy (vs. STL): 19 carries, 95 yards, 2 touchdowns; 3 receptions, 23 yards—21.3 fantasy points
4. Matt Forte (at KC): 21 carries, 91 yards, 1 touchdown; 6 receptions, 62 yards—21.3 fantasy points
5. Justin Forsett (vs. CLE): 18 carries, 87 yards, 1 touchdown; 3 receptions, 31 yards—17.8 fantasy points

Stats to Know

Devonta Freeman leads all running by in terms of fantasy points by a wide margin, but he gets a surprisingly tough matchup in Week 5 against the Washington Redskins. Washington has given up the fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs so far this season, according to ESPN.com. Freeman should be in starting lineups, but this is the week he comes back down to Earth a bit.

Raiders running back Latavius Murray is set to bounce back in Week 5. He plays against the Broncos, who have given up four rushing touchdowns to running backs over the past three weeks.

Week 5 could be another big one for both New England running backs—Dion Lewis and LeGarrette Blount. The Cowboys have given up the third-most fantasy points to opposing running backs so far this season, according to ESPN.com. They also gave up an 80-yard touchdown to C.J. Spiller last week on a wheel route—don’t be surprised to see the Patriots try the same play with Lewis in Week 5.

What the Metrics Say

Todd Gurley gained nearly 85 percent of his yards in Week 4 on runs that were 15-plus yards, per Pro Football Focus. He’s a true breakaway threat and can score from anywhere on the field.

Could Bishop Sankey simply need more playing time? He’s scoring 0.35 fantasy points per snap so far this season, tied for 12th among all running backs—with Jamaal Charles.

If Cardinals rookie David Johnson wants more playing time (his fantasy owners certainly do), he’ll need to catch the ball more often. He has dropped two of 11 catchable targets so far this season, giving him a drop rate of 18.18 percent—second-worst among qualifying running backs.

Wide Receivers: Antonio Brown Remains in Top 5 Despite Tough Matchup

Gene Puskar/Associated Press

Antonio Brown

DeAndre Hopkins was ranked No. 5, but he played on Thursday Night Football, so he is not included in this article. His exclusion allows Antonio Brown to remain in the top five despite paying with Michael Vick—and despite the return of Martavis Bryant, who could steal some deep targets from Brown.

But be warned: Brown plays against the San Diego Chargers this week, who have given up the fewest points to opposing wide receivers so far this season, according to ESPN.com. Brown is still a must-start, but this is the stiffest competition he’s faced yet.

The Projections

1. Julio Jones (vs. WAS): 11 receptions, 127 yards, 2 touchdowns—24.7 fantasy points
2. Odell Beckham Jr. (vs. SF): 9 receptions, 111 yards, 2 touchdowns—23.1 fantasy points
3. Demaryius Thomas (at MIN): 8 receptions, 103 yards, 1 touchdown—16.3 fantasy points
4. Randall Cobb (vs. STL): 8 receptions, 93 yards, 1 touchdown—15.3 fantasy points
5. Antonio Brown (at SD): 7 receptions, 82 yards, 1 touchdown—14.2 fantasy points

Stats to Know

If Alshon Jeffery is a go for the Chicago Bears this weekend, he’s a must-start. The Bears play against the Kansas City Chiefs, who have given up 10 touchdowns to opposing wide receivers so far this season. No other team in the league has given up more than eight.

A.J. Green should be downgraded to WR2 status in Week 5. He’ll play against the Seahawks, who have given up the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing wideouts so far this season, per ESPN.com. Wide receivers have scored a combined one touchdown against the Seahawks so far this year, and that came in Week 2 against  Rodgers and the Packers—in Green Bay.

Julio Jones had a down week in Week 4, but that was largely a game-flow issue. He’s set for another huge game in Week 5 against the Redskins, who are stingy against the run (see previous slide) but cede a lot of points through the air. The Redskins have given up the 10th-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers so far this season.

What the Metrics Say

Per Pro Football Focus, Palmer has a nearly perfect (154.9) NFL quarterback rating when throwing to Larry Fitzgerald this season. That’s the top QB-WR duo in the league right now in terms of quarterback rating. Palmer will continue to look Fitzgerald’s way with steady production like that.

Over one-third (37.8 percent) of Allen Robinson’s targets this season have come 20-plus yards down the field, tops among all wideouts with over 20 total targets. The Jacksonville Jaguars are set on establishing Robinson as a deep threat.

Sammy Watkins is being targeted, on average, 22.9 yards down the field this year. His average depth of target (a Pro Football Focus stat) was 13.6 last year. Look for him to be targeted closer to the line of scrimmage moving forward—perhaps about 15 yards down the field but not 20-plus. This will increase his catch rate.

Tight Ends: Charles Clay Is a TE1 in Week 5

Bill Wippert/Associated Press

Charles Clay

Rob Gronkowski returns from a bye week and assumes the top spot among tight ends once again. It’ll be a surprise to see him removed from that spot at any point for the remainder of the season.

A few notches below Gronkowski is another AFC East tight end in the form of Clay, who slips into the top five for the first time this season. Over the past two weeks, Clay has recorded 14 receptions for 193 yards and a touchdown. He’s a TE1 this week, especially considering his matchup against the Tennessee Titans, who have given up the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends so far this season, according to ESPN.com.

The Projections

1. Rob Gronkowski (at DAL): 6 receptions, 103 yards, 2 touchdowns—22.3 fantasy points
2. Travis Kelce (vs. CHI): 5 receptions, 94 yards, 1 touchdown—15.4 fantasy points
3. Martellus Bennett (at KC): 5 receptions, 73 yards, 1 touchdown—13.3 fantasy points
4. Jimmy Graham (at CIN): 5 receptions, 64 yards, 1 touchdown—12.4 fantasy points
5. Charles Clay (at TEN): 4 receptions, 56 yards, 1 touchdown—11.6 fantasy points

Stats to Know

Gronkowski has already had his bye week, but he has a double-digit point lead over every other tight end. With no more weeks off for the rest of the season, Gronkowski will only extend that lead.

Owen Daniels should be considered a tail-end TE1 this week. He’ll play against the Raiders, who have given up 32 receptions, 388 yards and six touchdowns to opposing tight ends so far this season—all league highs.

If Jimmy Graham scores a touchdown—as predicted—he’ll be the first tight end to score against the Cincinnati Bengals so far this season. Cincinnati has been a top-five unit against tight ends, per ESPN.com.

But tight ends have had some success against the Bengals recently. Baltimore tight ends went for over 100 yards against Cincinnati in Week 3, while Kansas City tight ends, led by Travis Kelce, caught six passes for 57 yards against the Bengals in Week 4. The yardage and receptions shouldn’t be problems for Graham; it’s just a question of whether he’ll find the end zone.

What the Metrics Say

Jason Witten has been unaffected by Tony Romo’s injury. His two games with Romo: 60 yards and 56 yards. His two games without Romo: 65 yards and 57 yards. In fact, Witten’s yards per reception have increased in the two games without Romo. Witten does, however, miss out on more touchdown opportunities without Romo under center. The Dallas offense has been on the field for about 20 fewer plays per game without Romo, per Pro Football Focus.

Clay is averaging 2.06 yards per route run this season, fourth-highest among qualifying tight ends behind only Gronkowski, Jordan Reed and Tyler Eifert—all three of whom were TE1s (until Reed’s injury).

Cleveland uses tight end Gary Barnidge like a slot receiver. Nearly two-thirds (64.8 percent) of the routes he's run so far this season came via the slot. However, neither of the two touchdowns he has scored came on routes run from the slot.

Kickers: Denver's McManus Set for a Big Week

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Brandon McManus

Kickers were a mess in Week 4, but a handful of kickers can be trusted in Week 5 (and for the rest of the season). These five kickers have missed only two field goals all season—combined.

The Projections

1. Stephen Gostkowski (at DAL): 3-3 FGs, 3-3 XPs—12 fantasy points
2. Justin Tucker (vs. CLE): 3-3 FGs, 2-2 XPs—11 fantasy points
3. Matt Bryant (vs. WAS): 2-2 FGs, 3-3 XPs—9 fantasy points
4. Mason Crosby (vs. STL): 2-2 FGs, 3-3 XPs—9 fantasy points
5. Brandon McManus (at OAK): 2-2 FGs, 3-3 XPs—9 fantasy points

Stats to Know

Kickers have yet to attempt a field goal against the Titans. This interesting (but potentially worthless) stat will be pointed out until it changes.

The Raiders have given up the most fantasy points to opposing kickers so far this season, according to ESPN.com. Brandon McManus—who plays the Raiders in Week 5—has the most fantasy points among kickers so far this season. Do the math.

The St. Louis Rams have given up the fifth-most fantasy points to kickers so far this season and have had eight field goals under 40 yards attempted against them—tied for most in the league with the Raiders. The Packers should have no problem getting within field-goal range, which means Mason Crosby is all but a lock to finish in the top five this week.

Defense and Special Teams: Denver, Arizona Remain Top D/ST Options

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The Broncos and the Cardinals—the top two D/ST units so far this season—are ranked Nos. 1 and 2 in Week 5 thanks to their favorable matchups against the Raiders and the Lions, respectively. There’s no reason to think these defenses won't distance themselves from the field even more in Week 5.

The Projections

1. Denver Broncos (at OAK): 14 points allowed, 2 interceptions, 3 sacks
2. Arizona Cardinals (at DET): 21 points allowed, 2 interceptions, 3 sacks
3. Buffalo Bills (at TEN): 24 points allowed, 1 interception, 2 fumble recoveries, 2 sacks
4. Green Bay Packers (vs. STL): 20 points allowed, 2 interceptions, 3 sacks
5. Seattle Seahawks (at CIN): 23 points allowed, 2 interception, 1 fumble recovery, 3 sacks

Stats to Know

Fire up the Jaguars as a sneaky stream option this week. D/ST units facing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have scored the fourth-most fantasy points so far this season, according to ESPN.com.

D/ST units playing against the Bears have scored double-digit points in three straight weeks. The Kansas City Chiefs, who play the Bears in Week 5, are a solid D/ST stream option.

Avoid the Rams D/ST this week. The Rams are a top-10 D/ST unit so far this year, but they travel to Green Bay in Week 5. Don’t mess with Rodgers in Green Bay.

The rankings for each position come via the expert consensus rankings compiled by FantasyPros.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats in the “Stats to Know” sections throughout the slideshow came via ESPN.com or via NFL.com.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats in the “Metrics to Know” sections throughout the slideshow came via Pro Football Focus.