Updated 2015 NASCAR Title Odds: Week 30
One down, four gone, seven to go.
That pretty much sums up where the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup playoff is at heading into Saturday night’s Bank of America 500 at Charlotte Motor Speedway.
The first of four rounds is over with, the first four drivers have been eliminated and there are seven races remaining to crown the 2015 Cup champion.
With his dominating victory this past Sunday at Dover, Kevin Harvick not only staved off potential elimination from the Chase, but he also may have just elevated himself as the driver to beat in the remainder of the Chase.
Let’s take a look at the new round of odds for the 12 remaining Chase drivers heading into Saturday night’s battle at Charlotte:
Dale Earnhardt Jr.
1 of 12
Working in his favor: Junior advanced to the second round of the Chase by the slimmest margin possible: one point. His good fortune was Jamie McMurray’s misfortune, as McMurray was eliminated from advancing in the Chase by that same one point.
With teammate Jimmie Johnson surprisingly eliminated, Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Jeff Gordon are the remaining torchbearers for Hendrick Motorsports. That may be added pressure, but it may also be added incentive.
Working against him: Earnhardt admitted after barely qualifying to advance to the second round that his team has some things to work on. Greg Ives is doing a good job as crew chief, and Junior is doing a decent job behind the wheel, but the schedule—with the exception of Talladega in three weeks—doesn’t exactly favor Earnhardt.
He’s never won at Charlotte, he has struggled at Kansas (remember last year’s flat tire) and the last thing he wants to do is face a must-win situation at Talladega if he hopes to advance to Round 3. Sure, Junior has been outstanding at plate tracks of late, but can he race himself into the next round like Harvick did at Dover? That’s a heck of a lot of pressure, indeed.
Odds: 50-1
Brad Keselowski
2 of 12
Working in his favor: Like his fellow competitors, Brad Keselowski is starting at back-to-back 1.5-mile tracks at Charlotte and Kansas, which could potentially work in his favor. But he has to make a statement in at least one of those races if he hopes to advance to Round 3. A win at Kansas appears the more likely of the two. Like Earnhardt, the last thing Keselowski wants to do is leave his fate to move to Round 3 to Talladega.
Working against him: Keselowski just hasn’t seemed to be the Brad of old (pre-2015) this season. With just one win and not being talked about as much as he has been in past years (mainly due to lack of achievement), something just seems to be wrong with the No. 2 team. I just can’t put my finger on it. But whatever it is, Team Penske better turn it around, lest one of Ford’s only two drivers in the Chase may not be around come the third round.
Odds: 50-1
Martin Truex Jr.
3 of 12
Working in his favor: Martin Truex Jr. has been a classic underdog this season. What a script he’s written up to this point, being the only driver from a single-car team to not only make the Chase, but now to also advance to the second round. Truex has the potential to make it to the third round if he can up his game a bit more. And if he makes the final round, it would be one of the most uplifting stories NASCAR has seen in a long time.
Working against him: The very same reason that is working for him could potentially also work against Truex in Round 2—namely, being part of a one-car team. He has no support, nobody to have his back and no one who can help him if he needs a teammate to come to his rescue. He’s going to need a lot of luck in this round. Who knows if that’ll be enough?
Odds: 25-1
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Kurt Busch
4 of 12
Working in his favor: Having veteran crew chief Tony Gibson atop his pit box is arguably one of Kurt Busch’s biggest strengths and advantages. But let’s not forget the guy behind the wheel. Not only is he a former champion, he is coming up to three tracks where he likes to mix it up with his counterparts. I can easily see Busch winning at either Charlotte or Kansas.
Working against him: While it’s a good thing that teammate Kevin Harvick advanced to the second round as well, Busch could be faced with a situation where all attention going forward will be on Harvick and not on him. Busch may thrive when he’s under the radar, but he can’t fly below it in Round 2. He needs to make a statement, particularly in the first two races, or his statement after Talladega may consist of one word: eliminated.
Odds: 20-1
Ryan Newman
5 of 12
Working in his favor: Ryan Newman continues to fly under the radar in a most effective and efficient manner, just like he did last season. He’s not pretentious or boisterous; he's just a working man’s kind of driver who knows what he has to do each time he climbs behind the wheel—and then he typically goes out and does just that.
Working against him: With teammate Paul Menard now eliminated from the Chase, Newman once again is the lone soldier carrying the playoff banner for Richard Childress Racing going forward. One thing I’ve noticed regularly this season is that Newman has not been getting much help or having much interaction on the track from his teammates. That every-man-for-himself attitude has to change. He needs help from both Menard and Austin Dillon if he’s going to reach the final round once again.
Odds: 15-1
Jeff Gordon
6 of 12
Working in his favor: Gordon has survived perhaps his biggest test of the season thus far, advancing to the second round of the Chase. Admittedly, it wasn’t easy. But now with teammate Jimmie Johnson eliminated, it’s up to Gordon and Dale Earnhardt Jr. to bring home the championship for Hendrick Motorsports.
Working against him: Gordon needs better calls from crew chief Alan Gustafson, a stronger performance from his pit crew and better cars, as well. While this may sound like an off-the-wall idea, what if team owner Rick Hendrick decided to switch Gordon’s crew with that of Jimmie Johnson, including crew chief Chad Knaus?
It may sound far-fetched, but it potentially could be the only thing that may get Gordon to the final round. Remember, Knaus switched crews with Gordon’s team several years ago, with two races remaining, and it helped Johnson go on to win the championship. Perhaps it’s time for Knaus to repay the favor.
Odds: 15-1
Carl Edwards
7 of 12
Working in his favor: Carl Edwards excels on 1.5-mile tracks such as Charlotte and Kansas, so that automatically enhances his chances to earn a win and advance to the third round. In a sense, Edwards has been one of the more pleasant surprises of this season, not to mention the Chase. If he keeps doing what he’s been doing, he’ll be in good shape. If he deviates from what got him to this point, he may not see Round 3.
Working against him: The second round is where the every-man-for-himself approach is likely to begin to take hold at Joe Gibbs Racing. It’s very unlikely that all four JGR drivers will make it to the championship round in an all-Gibbs final.
Being the newest kid on the JGR block, Edwards may be the guy who most has to fend for himself going forward. Plus, Edwards really hasn’t had a severe downturn in good fortune this season that he has had in other seasons. Is time and fate on his side, or against him? Ask me after Talladega and we’ll have the answer.
Odds: 12-1
Kyle Busch
8 of 12
Working in his favor: Kyle Busch did what he had to do, finishing second to Harvick this past Sunday at Dover, to advance to Round 2 of the Chase. But it was far from a walk in the park. Busch came into the race tied for 13th and was facing a realistic possibility of being eliminated. But he reached back into his bag of tricks and showed the Kyle that many love so much the guy who thrives on pressure. Now it’s the start of a new round of pressure. Will he be up to the task?
Working against him: Busch’s terrible showing at Loudon two weeks ago was a big wake-up call. That he could go from fourth to tied for 13th after just one race shows there could be further cracks in his armor at the most inopportune time in Round 2. Because all drivers come into Saturday’s race at Charlotte tied in the standings, Busch is in a very unique place where he can forget about points racing for one race and focus solely on winning. If he can do that, he gets an automatic ticket to Round 3. The question is, can he do just that?
Odds: 10-1
Joey Logano
9 of 12
Working in his favor: Joey Logano continues to do the right thing at the right time. Sure, it hasn’t translated into a Chase win thus far. But borrowing pages from both Newman’s and Matt Kenseth’s playbooks on consistency are the main reason why Logano is where he is entering Round 2. He should be considered one of the top contenders to win at either Charlotte or Kansas. And if he does that, there potentially may be no stopping him from that point.
Working against him: Other than trying to not be reminded about how he fell short in last season’s finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway, there’s very little working against Logano heading into Charlotte. That’s something few—if any—other drivers can say about their own chances.
Odds: 7-1
Denny Hamlin
10 of 12
Working in his favor: Denny Hamlin heads into Round 2 of the Chase having won the Chase opener at Chicagoland and having finished second at Loudon. He’s not letting the torn ACL in his right knee affect him, which gives Hamlin a marked psychological edge that if he can beat pain, he can beat the other 11 drivers remaining in the Chase.
Working against him: Even though it’s the Chase's hallmark, you can’t expect a driver to have a great race in every one of the 10 playoff races. Sooner or later, a mediocre or even bad finish is almost expected. Hamlin had his mulligan at Dover, finishing 18th. He can’t afford another one. He has to get back on the track he was on in the first two races of the Chase.
Odds: 5-1
Matt Kenseth
11 of 12
Working in his favor: Even with Kevin Harvick’s incredible comeback, Kenseth still has a lot going for him. And even though I moved Harvick up to the top spot in this week’s odds, that doesn’t mean I’ve lost faith in Kenseth. If anything, Harvick’s outstanding run at Dover will only cause Kenseth to reach deep down and potentially pull out a win at either Charlotte or Kansas to ensure he moves on to the third round.
Working against him: While Kenseth has to worry about his three Joe Gibbs Racing teammates, particularly now that the Chase has entered the second round, Kenseth has one person to worry about the most—namely, himself.
While Kenseth is one of the most mild-mannered and even-tempered drivers in the business, he can’t let himself get too caught up with where he’s at in the Chase—be it as a leader or lower down the ladder. He can eliminate that worry by winning at Charlotte or Kansas. And given that Kenseth is one of the top drivers on 1.5-mile tracks, like those back-to-back venues, why put off to next week what he can do this week, right?
Odds: 4-1
Kevin Harvick
12 of 12
Working in his favor: I admit it, I failed to believe in Harvick. And, boy, did he show me and others who doubted him heading into last Sunday’s race at Dover. That’s why he’s gone from a 500-1 long shot heading into Dover to being tied with Kenseth as a 4-1 favorite to win a second straight championship this season. The drivers of the No. 4 and No. 20 cars are now the two to beat from here on out.
Working against him: While Harvick is one of the best clutch drivers there is when pressure is at its highest, the law of averages can only last so long. Yes, he came back to win at Phoenix last fall, setting up his championship achievement the following week. And yes, he came back last Sunday at Dover to stave off elimination. But he has to double down on not making the same mistakes he and his team made at Chicagoland and Loudon that got him into the big mess in the first place heading into Dover. If it happens again, this time Harvick may come up short.
Odds: 4-1
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