College Football Week 3 Guaranteed Locks

Major ClausenContributor ISeptember 19, 2009

WACO, TX - OCTOBER 04:  Quarterback Robert Griffin #10 of the Baylor Bears drops back to pass against the Oklahoma Sooners at Floyd Casey Stadium on October 4, 2008 in Waco, Texas.  (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)

I had a big day yesterday as I hit with my Miami pick, which I was confident in all along although many people expected it to be a close game, and I got 12 picks for today's games which I am sold on.

Lets get off the ball like Jeff Saturday and hit these picks, which are in bold and based on the Bodog spread. Log onto VincentManning.com tomorrow for my week 3 NFL locks, which will be posted sometime between midnight and 10 am pacific time.  

Record as of 9/18/09: 19-11

Locks

Temple at Penn State (-30.5)
East Carolina at North Carolina (-8)
Duke at Kansas (-24)
North Texas (+39.5) at Alabama
Arizona (+4) at Iowa
Michigan State at Notre Dame (-10)
Louisiana-Lafayette (+27) at LSU
Connecticut at Baylor (-10.5)
Miami (OH) at Western Michigan (-16)
Utah State at Texas A&M (-19.5)
Wyoming at Colorado (-7)
Kansas State at UCLA (-13)

Analysis

1) Temple at Penn State (-30.5): I like Penn State to cover in this game because of their running game with Evan Royster and the fact that they'll probably use this contest to try to ramp up their passing game, as this is their last non-conference game before nine-straight Big Ten matchups. Temple 0-Penn State 55

2) East Carolina at North Carolina (-8): ECU certainly isn't as good as they were last year, while on the other hand North Carolina had a big win last week at Connecticut. ECU 16-NC 31

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3) Duke at Kansas (-24): The Blue Devils have no chance at stopping Jayhawks quarterback Todd Reesing and his solid receiving core. Duke 7-KU 40

4) North Texas (+39.5) at Alabama: I think the Mean Green have the all-around talent to cover, plus Alabama wide receiver Julio Jones and running back Roy Upchurch have been listed as questionable for the game, and even if they do play Nick Saban probably won't keep them in for too long, which bodes well for North Texas even though they'll be lining up with backup quarterback Nathan Tune. I really like Mean Green coach Todd Dodge. North Texas 10-Alabama 44

5) Arizona (+4) at Iowa: While Iowa has a strong defense, I like Wildcats OC Sunny Dykes to keep them guessing with a good mix-and-match of running and passing plays, and on defense the Wildcats can play with anybody thanks to cornerback Devin Ross. Arizona 20-Iowa 13

6) Michigan State at Notre Dame (-10): Jimmy Clausen and co. will let out their anger over last week's loss to Michigan (they should have been able to run another play from about midfield with one second left, but weren't given that opportunity thanks to the all-too-common bad clock managers in college football) on the Wolverines' neighbors in East Lansing. I expect them to put up a lot of points and don't think the Spartans will be able to do too much against a good Notre Dame defense who underperformed last week. Plus the game is in South Bend. MSU 9-Notre Dame 31

7) Louisiana-Lafayette (+27) at LSU: The Ragin' Cajuns are riding high thanks to a 2-0 start, and LSU hasn't been that impressive so far this year, though they will definitely win this game. Louisiana-Lafayette 17-LSU 38

8) Connecticut at Baylor (-10.5): Connecticut has to recover from a tough loss to North Carolina last Saturday, while Baylor had 14 days to get better after beating a decent Wake Forest team two weeks ago in Winston-Salem. I expect Robert Griffin III to have a big game. UConn 13-Baylor 34

9) Miami (OH) at Western Michigan (-16): I have a lot of respect for RedHawks head coach and former Illinois OC Mike Haywood, but his team hasn't scored a single point so far this season, while Western Michigan has stuck around with two BCS teams in Michigan (relatively) and Indiana in their first two games. Miami (OH) 10-Western Michigan 38

10) Utah State at Texas A&M (-19.5): Utah State's defense is not very good, while on the other side the Aggies arguably feature the best two players in the country that nobody knows about in quarterback Jerrod Johnson and wide receiver Jeff Fuller. Plus they've had two weeks to prepare for this game. Utah State 13-Texas A&M 44

11) Wyoming at Colorado (-7): I was originally going to use this slot to pick Georgia over Arkansas, but got cold feet after thinking about the fact that Arkansas looked decent against I-AA Missouri State two weeks ago and has had that span of time to focus on Mark Richt's team, who I was not too impressed with when I watched them play Oklahoma State.

I think Colorado over Wyoming by more than a touchdown is a much safer pick here, as Wyoming used up a lot of energy against Texas last Saturday and Colorado is desperate for a win and features an offense with talented skill players that at times looks very promising. Wyoming 17-Colorado 27

12) Kansas State at UCLA (-13): I was initially concerned about this game because UCLA coach Rick Neuheisel hasn't publicly named his replacement for injured quarterback Kevin Prince yet, but then I realized that their defense is arguably the best in the Pac-10 and that they have talented playmakers at receiver in Terrence Austin and Tyler Embree. I don't think the Wildcats will be able to stay in this game. KSU 6-UCLA 31

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