Packers vs. 49ers: What's the Game Plan for San Francisco?
How will the San Francisco 49ers hope to get back on track after suffering yet another devastating defeat at the hands of the Arizona Cardinals in Week 3?
After all, the 49ers only have to take on the undefeated Green Bay Packers this week—a team that is dismantling opposing defenses with ease.
San Francisco's defense will have its hands full during the contest with quarterback Aaron Rodgers and Co. The 49ers defense has allowed a combined 90 points over its last two efforts and is ranked 31st in the league in fewest points allowed (93).
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On the flip side, the 49ers offense has yet to jell into a cohesive unit. Quarterback Colin Kaepernick, who has enjoyed measurable success against Green Bay, endured one of the worst games of his pro career in Week 3. He finished the contest with four interceptions—two of which were returned for touchdowns—and had a passer rating of 16.7.
What advantages do the 49ers have in this seemingly "David vs. Goliath" matchup? What will the game plans be for both the offense and defense?
Let's try to answer that.
Offensive Game Plan
To put things simply, the 49ers cannot afford to play from behind against a high-powered Packers offense.
And Kaepernick cannot start off with turnovers on back-to-back opening drives.
The 49ers could elect to keep their quarterback in a more conservative mode—similar to the type of efforts he displayed in San Francisco's Week 1 victory over the Minnesota Vikings.
To do this, San Francisco may look to reestablish the running game. After a 168-yard performance in Week 1, 49ers No. 1 back Carlos Hyde only posted 43 and 51 rushing yards in Weeks 2 and 3, respectively.
Part of the problem has been the lack of push from San Francisco's offensive line.
According to Pro Football Focus, the O-line has a cumulative minus-10.4 run-blocking grade in 2015. Those aren't the type of numbers to inspire a strong run-first approach.
| LT Joe Staley | 4.2 | - 0.7 | 3.4 |
| LG Alex Boone | 1.6 | 1.6 | 3.7 |
| C Marcus Martin | - 7.0 | - 3.8 | - 11.5 |
| RG Jordan Devey | - 2.9 | - 3.4 | - 5.8 |
| RT Erik Pears | - 6.3 | - 0.7 | - 7.6 |
| Cumulative | - 10.4 | - 6.2 | N/A |
With multiple-tight-end sets featured in Week 1, and these formations yielding some success, perhaps offensive coordinator Geep Chryst elects to go back to this sort of scheme versus Green Bay.
With that said, Pro-Football-Reference.com lists tight ends Vernon Davis and Vance McDonald as questionable for Sunday's bout. Should Davis and McDonald be unable to go, that would leave fellow TEs Blake Bell and Garrett Celek as the only healthy options.
Running the ball and maintaining possession will be paramount for the 49ers' plans. And it will be the critical element in keeping Rodgers and the Packers offense off the field. Unfortunately, San Francisco's offense has struggled in this aspect in back-to-back weeks.
Not surprisingly, much of the focus will continue to fall on Kaepernick.
Kaepernick cannot make off-balance, poorly executed throws like this one in Arizona:
Green Bay's defense may not be as suffocating as that of the Cardinals. The Packers are solid enough against the pass (No. 11 in the league with 669 yards allowed), but they can be exposed with a consistent approach on the ground.
The Packers rank 27th in the league with 383 rushing yards allowed over three games.
Perhaps this will be the only weak spot for the 49ers to exploit.
Remember, Kaepernick has used his legs to embarrass Green Bay before, as seen in this video from the 2013 playoffs:
San Francisco will have to showcase its prowess on offense to stand a chance.
And that may not even be enough.
Defensive Game Plan
The 49ers defense has looked all but lost in back-to-back efforts against opposing quarterbacks Ben Roethlisberger and Carson Palmer.
Both have been able to successfully dissect San Francisco's secondary and made it look easy in the process.
Figuring out a way to prevent Rodgers from doing much of the same seems like an impossible task given some of the problems seen on defense. And a lot of it has to do with coverage schemes employed by defensive coordinator Eric Mangini.
One of the troublesome aspects was the Cardinals' use of wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald in the slot.
Here, we see Fitzgerald (red circle) lined up in this slot position. He'll move toward the center of the field with safety Eric Reid (yellow circle) in zone coverage moving up in the play. Note linebacker Ahmad Brooks (yellow arrow), as he'll initially show coverage after the snap:
Fitzgerald runs right by Brooks (also in zone) and Reid isn't in a good position to prevent the Cardinals wideout from making an easy reception in front of the remaining 49ers defensive backs:
This is scheme being exploited at a basic level, and the thought of having linebackers in coverage against wide receivers is not particularly inspiring.
Another problematic element was the general lack of effort and communication on defense.
As Eric Branch of the San Francisco Chronicle points out, linebacker NaVorro Bowman—the clear leader of this unit—threw up his hands in disgust at least four times prior to the half in Week 3.
Such an effort cannot be repeated against a Green Bay offense.
Covering Packers wideouts Randall Cobb, James Jones and Davante Adams will be at the heart of the secondary's concerns on Sunday.
| WR Randall Cobb | 20 | 245 | 4 | 12.3 |
| WR James Jones | 12 | 219 | 4 | 18.3 |
| WR Davante Adams | 9 | 92 | 0 | 10.2 |
| TE Richard Rodgers | 8 | 65 | 1 | 8.1 |
And the 49ers will have to figure out a way to generate some sort of pass rush against Rodgers, who is with little doubt playing at the highest possible level in 2015. The veteran quarterback will also look to offset this with his excellent use of hard counts, as described further by David Fucillo of Niners Nation.
Key Players and Matchups
Kaepernick versus Rodgers will be the talk of the game. Granted, neither will actually face each other on the field, but one quarterback is dominating the competition while the other remains a proverbial work in progress.
But Kaepernick does have excellent career numbers versus the Packers. He owns a regular-season 129.4 passer rating against the team for which he grew up rooting.
The only question is which Kaepernick will take the field on Sunday.
Linebacker Clay Matthews is another player worth watching in Week 4. Matthews has switched to the inside linebacker position in 2015 in order to reinforce the Packers defense up the middle. With two sacks on the young season, Matthews will look to exploit a questionable 49ers interior O-line.
Can second-year center Marcus Martin hold up against the pass-rushing prowess of Matthews? Martin's aforementioned pass-blocking grade hints at this being a potential problem.
Guarding against the run has been an area of concern for the Packers. Their defense has a minus-5.2 run defense, per PFF, so look for the 49ers to try to control the game as much as possible with Hyde being a focal point.
And can a questionable 49ers secondary contain all of Green Bay's receiving assets? This will be a tall order regardless of any change in scheme or formation.
Prediction
In all likelihood, the 49ers stand little chance of coming away from this Week 4 bout with a victory.
The Packers are one of the league's elite, while the 49ers look like a team in full rebuilding mode.
San Francisco does have some slight advantages in its favor. Playing at home at Levi's Stadium boosts the 49ers' chances, as does the fact that Green Bay is coming off a short week having played the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday Night Football in Week 3.
Still, Rodgers and Co. are playing at a level rarely seen in the NFL. Simply slowing the Packers offense down and keeping pace will likely not be enough.
Green Bay could easily put up 30 points in this contest. The team has been averaging 32 points per game on the season, and the 49ers don't seem to have what it takes to slow down exceptional quarterbacks.
On the flip side, the 49ers could merely show improvement over the last two weeks with a hard-fought, grinding effort.
A 30-17 score in favor of the Packers isn't unreasonable. As long as there are minimal ugly moments, such a loss may actually reveal positive efforts from San Francisco.
And that may be the best thing upon which to build moving forward.
All statistics, records and accolades courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.com and ESPN.com unless otherwise indicated.
Peter Panacy is a featured columnist covering the San Francisco 49ers for Bleacher Report. Follow him @PeterPanacy on Twitter.
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