Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Baltimore Ravens are favored to get their first win of the season and put an end to their worst start ever when they visit the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 4 on Thursday night. The Ravens had never lost their first three games before and hope to break a four-game skid overall dating back to last year against the Steelers, who will be without quarterback Ben Roethlisberger due to a knee injury.

Point spread: Ravens opened as two-point favorites; the total was 45.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 22.8-20.6 Ravens

Why the Ravens can cover the spread

In last year’s Wild Card round of the AFC playoffs, Baltimore went into Pittsburgh and left with a 30-17 victory while covering the spread easily as a three-point road underdog. The Ravens were able to take advantage of Steelers running back Le’Veon Bell not playing in that game due to a knee injury, and they will get to do the same this time around with Roethlisberger out.

Baltimore is also in desperation mode and should be ready to break out in prime time following a disappointing home loss to the Cincinnati Bengals last week. The Ravens were two-point favorites in that game but saw Cincinnati wide receiver A.J. Green burn them for the game-winning touchdown with just over two minutes remaining. While Pittsburgh has Antonio Brown, the downgrade to Michael Vick at quarterback is huge.

Why the Steelers can cover the spread

The Steelers are 3-0 straight-up and against the spread in their past three games as home underdogs and will be playing with revenge following that playoff loss at Heinz Field back in January. Bell especially should be very motivated to play an even bigger role in Pittsburgh’s offense now that Roethlisberger will not be on the field.

In addition, this is an important rivalry game within the AFC North, where the Steelers have an excellent opportunity to put Baltimore in a massive hole at 0-4. Pittsburgh is expected to be without Roethlisberger for four to six weeks, so every win the team can earn without him will be a confidence boost that could keep its postseason hopes alive.

Smart pick

The Steelers are in the thick of the divisional race for first place despite a perfect 3-0 start for the Bengals, and they know how crucial this game is, especially because another loss by the Ravens puts them in a difficult spot. Bell will be the difference-maker here, as Pittsburgh offensive coordinator Todd Haley will make sure Vick does not mess things up. Look for the Steelers to win their fourth straight as home dogs.

Betting trends

The Ravens are 2-6 SU and ATS in their last eight divisional games on the road.

The Ravens are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games on the road in October.

The Steelers are 3-0 SU and ATS in their last three games as home underdogs.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.