Daniel Cormier vs. Alexander Gustafsson: A Head-to-Toe Breakdown
UFC 192 is right around the corner, and headlining the event will be a contest for the UFC Light Heavyweight Championship.
Champion Daniel Cormier will meet No. 2-ranked contender Alexander Gustafsson in the main event. For the second straight event, a challenger to the crown will be coming off a loss, as Anthony Johnson knocked out the Swede in January.
Also in January, Cormier lost to then-champion Jon Jones, but when Jones was stripped of the title, Cormier returned at UFC 187 to defeat Johnson.
The commercials for this event have centered on the height discrepancy between the two combatants, but will that play a significant role in this fight?
That will be just one of the many things we look at in the head-to-toe breakdown for Saturday's event. Let's jump right into the analysis for this championship tilt in Houston.
Striking
1 of 5
Standing at 6'5", it is clear who has the reach advantage going into Saturday—Gustafsson. The real question is how much of an edge that will be.
Cormier has fought numerous lengthy fighters, and he has the ability to get inside. He cracked Jon Jones, the man with the longest reach in the division, and has knockouts in the heavyweight division. Part of the reason he is able to do this is because he is a technically sound boxer.
Gustafsson does get hit a good bit. In his UFC career, he has absorbed 3.38 significant strikes per minute, according to FightMetric. He does not hold an edge on the feet simply because he has more reach.
The reason Gustafsson has an advantage when standing is because he is more diverse. His kicks, knees and elbows are all better than Cormier's. However, throwing kicks against Cormier may not be in the game plan due to the champion's wrestling credentials. However, that remains to be seen.
Throw out the height and reach advantages for Gustafsson. Cormier is capable of getting inside and competing there, but the totality of Gustafsson's striking gives him a better chance to win the fight the longer it stays standing.
Edge: Gustafsson
Grappling
2 of 5
There should be no question who the better grappler is in this fight.
Cormier is a former Olympian and one of the strongest fighters on the entire roster in the clinch. That is not a position where Gustafsson will want to be come Saturday.
With that said, let's give some credit to Gustafsson. He has improved his wrestling over the years. He's worked with the likes of Phil Davis to improve his takedowns, and it showed when he challenged Jon Jones in 2013. And Cormier has been taken down before. He is not invincible.
This should be fairly clear-cut, but Gustafsson has the ability to shock some folks. It's at least worth a mention.
Edge: Cormier
Submissions
3 of 5
Neither Cormier nor Gustafsson is a jiu-jitsu superstar. Thus, you shouldn't be expecting any unorthodox submissions in this fight.
Gustafsson has three submission finishes to his credit, and Cormier has three as well. All six of those finishes have come by way of rear-naked chokes.
Cormier may be in better position to finish with a submission throughout this fight. His grappling acumen will likely have him on top position should the action hit the floor. And that can tire an opponent out over five rounds, leading to costly mental mistakes.
However, I'm going to side with the Swedish star in this category.
His long limbs open up more diverse opportunities for submissions. Neither fighter has gotten to showcase other pieces of his submission game, but Gustafsson may have that opportunity in this matchup. He can threaten with a guillotine or kimura when Cormier closes the distance or force the American to play defense with an active guard from bottom.
That's easier said than done, but he has more submission plays than Cormier does, so the Swede gets the edge.
Edge: Gustafsson
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X-Factors
4 of 5
Cormier's X-Factor: Striking at Range
Every fights starts on the feet, and Cormier cannot simply rush forward on Gustafsson. He has to fight some of this battle at a healthy striking range. How well he does will directly affect the result.
If Gustafsson easily controls the distance and scores points with his striking, it will make Cormier desperately go for takedowns from way outside. The challenger will easily defend those attempts.
Cormier needs to be good defensively and even score a bit on offense too. Doing so will allow him to close the distance effectively, which would lead to a higher percentage of successful takedowns.
Gustafsson's X-Factor: Mental State
We have not seen Gustafsson inside the cage since he was obliterated by Anthony Johnson. We do not know where he is at mentally or physically. The mental aspect is more concerning at this juncture.
Will he be hesitant to get hit? Can he handle getting tagged by Cormier, who hits very hard?
He is not entering this fight on a win streak that gives him confidence. He comes in following a devastating—and embarrassing—loss on his home soil. We do not know what kind of Gustafsson we will see Saturday. This may be too soon for him to challenge for gold.
Prediction
5 of 5
Gustafsson has a decent shot at the upset, but I am too big a believer of Cormier right now to actually pull the trigger on that pick.
Cormier is a grinder, but he also has fight-ending power. Gustafsson will likely be reduced to having to land that one perfect shot to change this fight, and even that may not be enough. Ask Anthony Johnson.
Cormier will test out his striking in the opening minute, but soon he will move Gustafsson to the fence. The takedowns won't come easy, but the grind will take its toll on Gustafsson minute by minute. Eventually, those takedowns will happen. And then the beating truly begins.
The referee will have to stop this fight in the championship rounds once Cormier establishes dominance. The only question remaining after this fight: When will Jon Jones return to challenge for a belt he never lost?
Prediction: Cormier defeats Gustafsson by TKO in the fourth round.
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