Diner Morning News: Five Ways to Better NFL Picks

National Football Post

“Curiosity is one of the permanent and certain characteristics of a vigorous intellect.” — Dr. Samuel Johnson

I noticed my man Rapid Ray Gustini had a tough week picking games. Regardless, you have to cut him some slack, since the first weekend is always unpredictable, and poor Ray has obviously been following some of the wrong people on Twitter.

However, I’m confident he can turn things around and make everyone proud of his picks. To assist him, I thought I’d offer a list of five things to look for this weekend in the NFL.

Before we get to the list, no team wants to start 0-2, as the chances of reaching the playoffs are slightly less than 14 percent—clearly difficult, but not impossible.

Consider this: Last year, five of the 11 teams to start 2-0 missed the playoffs: Bills, Broncos, Cowboys, Packers, and Patriots. And three of the 11 teams to start 0-2 reached the playoffs: Chargers, Dolphins, and Vikings.

So this weekend is important for 0-1 teams, but it won’t threaten their playoff hopes if they don’t win. Applying that same logic to my man Ray, evidently he can have another bad week and still show signs of turning it around—much like his hero, Vikings coach Brad Childress, did last year.

(Many here at the Post suspect Ray’s poor showing in the first week was due, in large part, to the fact Matt “I love me some Texans” Bowen refuses to grant Ray’s request to feature the women of “Mad Men” in his Eight In the Box series.)

1. Don't fall to the temptation of the Lions playing at home.

I admit that when Brett Favre signed with the Vikings, I told NFL Network’s Rich Eisen that the Lions would upset Minnesota in Week Two for their first win since Dec. 23, 2007.

I spoke before thinking, before looking at the numbers, before knowing that Childress was 5-1 against the Lions in his career.

Minnesota has won 13 of the last 14 meetings against the Lions, including six of its past seven trips to the Motor City.

What made me blurt out my ill-advised prediction to Eisen was the fact that the Lions have played the Vikings well the last two times. In fact, in both games last season, the Lions were in position to win in the fourth quarter.

So is there no hope for the Lions?

I’m sure there’s always hope, and since they’re not facing a passer like Drew Brees of the Saints, their secondary will not be as exposed as it was last week.

But can they turn hope into a win? They can.

If they can contain Adrian Peterson, much like the Browns did in the first half last Sunday, they’ll force the ball into the hands of the Vikings new game manager, Favre. And he’ll need to prove he can make plays in the passing game.

2. The Arizona Cardinals on the East Coast is normally not good.

I know the Cards won last year in Carolina in convincing fashion, but did you know they’ve lost 11 consecutive regular season games on the East Coast and lost all five of their regular season East Coast games in 2008 by a combined score of 202-102?

The last time the Cardinals won a regular season game in the East was Nov. 7, 2004, when they won 24-23 in Miami.

I know the Cards need to win, but they don’t seem to like the Eastern time zone. With Kurt Warner looking a little rusty last week and the fact they’re playing in Jacksonville, it might spell trouble for Arizona.

3. "We'll get them next week" theory

I know it’s tempting to assume that a team that played well against a top opponent the week before and lost a close one will win the next game because they’re playing a lesser opponent.

Remind yourself that every week is a new matchup, and every new matchup might present different problems.

For example, the Raiders looked good last week against the Chargers, and the Chiefs looked bad against the Ravens. So one might assume it’s an easy win for the Raiders this weekend in K.C.

As Lee Corso might say, “not so fast, my friends.” Matchups against division rivals are always tough to predict. Leave all assumptions alone.

4. Big-time starter hurt, easy win for the opponent

This week, Donovan McNabb is iffy for the Eagles’ game against the Saints. So if he doesn’t play, it should be an easy win for the Saints, right? Not sure.

I always hated playing this kind of game, especially on the road, because I felt our team might have a letdown and might not prepare with the same attention to detail as it would have had the starter been playing.

Conversely, the emotion of not having the starter for the home team might force them to prepare with extra care and attention to detail.

These games look easy on paper if the starter doesn’t play, but they’re anything but easy on the field.

5. Division games are always close.

Seven of the 16 games in Week Two are divisional games. Since realignment to the current eight-division format in 2002, the 14 teams that have advanced to the Super Bowl have a combined 68-16 (.810) record in games within their division.

So if the 49ers win this weekend, they’ll have a 2-0 lead in the NFC West before playing the Rams. This might make them the team to beat.

Have a great weekend. Check back for Sunday at the Post, my breakdown of all the games and some notes, along with the regular Sunday column.

Follow me on Twitter: michaelombardi

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