NFL Schedule Week 3: Full Odds and Upset Predictions for Key Matchups

One reason the NFL is so successful is the way things can turn around in a hurry. Sure, teams like the New England Patriots, Green Bay Packers and Denver Broncos being 2-0 after two weeks feels like old news, but who expected the New York Jets, Carolina Panthers and Atlanta Falcons to be undefeated heading into Week 3?

Super Bowl favorites like Indianapolis and Seattle have struggled out of the gate and are desperately seeking a win to avoid burying themselves even deeper. 

The larger point is no one has any idea what's going to happen. Preseason predictions are fun, but they're destined to look foolish because there are so many factors at play that can change things in a hurry. 

Looking ahead to the Week 3 schedule and odds, there are a few matchups that stand out as likely to produce the most surprising results.

NFL Week 3 Schedule and Odds

Date	Start Time (ET)	Matchup	Odds	Prediction
Thursday, Sept. 24	8:25 p.m.	Washington at New York Giants	NYG (-3)	Giants, 23-17
Sunday, Sept. 27	1 p.m.	Atlanta Falcons at Dallas Cowboys	Pick Em	Falcons, 27-14
Sunday, Sept. 27	1 p.m.	Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans	IND (-3)	Colts, 24-20
Sunday, Sept. 27	1 p.m.	Oakland Raiders at Cleveland Browns	CLE (-3)	Raiders, 27-23
Sunday, Sept. 27	1 p.m.	Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens	BAL (-2.5)	Bengals, 31-24
Sunday, Sept. 27	1 p.m.	Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots	NE (-14.5)	Patriots, 34-20
Sunday, Sept. 27	1 p.m.	New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers	CAR (-3)	Panthers, 27-20
Sunday, Sept. 27	1 p.m.	Philadelphia Eagles at New York Jets	NYJ (-1)	Eagles, 20-17
Sunday, Sept. 27	1 p.m.	Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Houston Texans	HOU (-7)	Buccaneers, 24-21
Sunday, Sept. 27	1 p.m.	San Diego Chargers at Minnesota Vikings	MIN (-1)	Chargers, 28-24
Sunday, Sept. 27	1 p.m.	Pittsburgh Steelers at St. Louis Rams	Pick Em	Steelers, 30-20
Sunday, Sept. 27	4:05 p.m.	San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals	AZ (-7)	Cardinals, 26-23
Sunday, Sept. 27	4:25 p.m.	Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins	MIA (-2.5)	Bills, 23-16
Sunday, Sept. 27	4:25 p.m.	Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks	SEA (-15.5)	Seahawks, 24-10
Sunday, Sept. 27	8:30 p.m.	Denver Broncos at Detroit Lions	DEN (-3)	Lions, 27-17
Monday, Sept. 28	8:30 p.m.	Kansas City Chiefs at Green Bay Packers	GB (-7.5)	Packers, 31-16

Buccaneers at Texans

Jonathan Bachman/Associated Press

In what appears to be a case of the oddsmakers trying not to overreact, the Houston Texans are listed as a touchdown favorite against Tampa Bay despite losing their first two games by a touchdown. 

Houston's losses have been very different, at least on the defensive side. Kansas City was able to break through the secondary in the first half, allowing quarterback Alex Smith to throw three touchdown passes. Carolina ran all over the defense with 172 yards on the ground, including 76 by signal-caller Cam Newton. 

Offensively, the Texans' plan to give quarterback Brian Hoyer a short leash before inserting Ryan Mallett into the starting job has worked out about as well as one could expect, with Ben Stockwell of ProFootballFocus.com illustrating why there should be panic in Houston:

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There is no more important position in football than quarterback, and the Houston Texans are continuing to learn that lesson. After benching Brian Hoyer (-0.4) after less than a game, the Texans then saw Ryan Mallett (-6.4) produce the worst quarterback performance of the week on Sunday. Mallett’s erratic accuracy stifled an offense that, after two weeks, only has four players with a positive grade, and one of those has only played eight snaps. 

"

On a positive note, Stockwell did say the Texans have "the most winnable game" of any 0-2 team this week. It's easy to understand why, as the Buccaneers were the league's worst team in 2015 and got off to a dreadful start with a 42-14 loss against Tennessee in Week 1. 

However, the Bucs showed plenty of character in 26-19 win at New Orleans last week. Jameis Winston looked a lot more comfortable, going 14-of-21 with two touchdowns (one passing, one rushing).

The rookie's touchdown throw to Vincent Jackson was a great reminder of why Tampa Bay made him the No. 1 pick, via NFL.com:

There's accuracy and touch on that pass that can't be taught. Winston is never lacking confidence, but that was a much-needed performance after what happened in Week 1.

Just as important for the Buccaneers was being able to force three turnovers on defense. Mallett's track record is not a good one, with a career completion percentage of 51.3 and 759 yards in nine games. 

J.J. Watt will be in Winston's face throughout the game, because no human is capable of shutting down Houston's star defensive end, but he needs the offense to be better than it has been to help end these early-season woes. 

Eagles at Jets

Matt Rourke/Associated Press

This one has all the makings of a trap game. The Jets are riding high thanks to a defense that looks as ferocious and opportunistic as it did in the early days of the Rex Ryan era and a strong running game that allows quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick to pick his spots to attack. 

On the other side, the Philadelphia Eagles have looked as offensively inept as any team through two weeks. DeMarco Murray has 11 more rushing yards than I do thus far and is dealing with a hamstring issue that's left his status for this game up in the air. 

Yet even with everything pointing in New York's direction, eventually Eagles head coach Chip Kelly will find something that works. Right?

Yes, though not exactly because the offense will break out against the Jets' stellar secondary. Whether Kelly wants to admit it or not, a tweet from SmartFootball.com's Chris Brown during last week's game against Dallas lends some credence to the notion opposing teams can dissect the Eagles' play-calling:

Kelly, while maybe not the innovative genius he was made out to be, is hardly stupid. He just can't be this bland with his play-calling in an effort to keep opponents on their toes. 

But more importantly, the Jets defense is being slightly overrated. Cleveland has no idea what it wants to do at quarterback, or at least that seems to be the case when trying to decide between Josh McCown and Johnny Manziel.

The win over Indianapolis is solid, though the Colts were overrated coming into the year because everyone loves Andrew Luck while continuing to overlook how much of the team's success comes against a terrible AFC South and an inept offensive line. 

Plus, the Jets still have Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback. He's only been asked to throw the ball 58 times in two games, so they have been able to hide him, but eventually there will come a time when he's asked to win a game.

There's a sense of urgency in Philadelphia, while everyone loves the Jets, so expect to see a much better version of Kelly's team this week. It would be hard to do worse.

Broncos at Lions

Even though the Broncos were mentioned earlier for their 2-0 record, they don't feel like an undefeated team through two weeks. Joe Flacco made a critical mistake in the red zone late in Week 1, while head coach Andy Reid's inability to manage the clock and Jamaal Charles' fumble gave them two gift wins. 

Peyton Manning doesn't exactly look done, especially in the second half against Kansas City with 158 of his 256 passing yards coming after the break, but he has thrown pick-sixes in each of the first two games and has been sacked seven times already after going down 17 times all last season. 

In ProFootballFocus.com's game rewind, Stockwell noted that Manning was really struggling on throws that should be rudimentary:

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Strong work on intermediate passes (7/13 passing, 124 yards, one touchdown, +2.4 PFF grade), highlighted by a pinpoint back-shoulder throw to Demaryius Thomas, was paired with misfired deep passing (0/4, -2.7 PFF grade) and some alarming passing short and to the right (3/7, 26 yards, one interception, -3.8 PFF grade) that included his pick-six.

"

Admittedly, the Lions would look like a better bet in this game if they had their 2014 defensive line with Ndamukong Suh in the middle. Ezekiel Ansah is continuing his ascent into the top-tier of pass-rushers, currently having two sacks through two games. 

Detroit also has its own quarterback questions, with Matthew Stafford remaining an enigma with four touchdowns and three interceptions in two games. He's also coming into the game banged up after taking a beating against Minnesota, though the former No. 1 overall pick sounds like he will play. 

That is a red flag going into a game against a Denver defense that has tremendous speed off the edge in Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware. 

Finding a way to get Ameer Abdullah incorporated into the game plan is Detroit's best path to offensive success. The rookie had 94 total yards and one touchdown on 11 touches in Week 1, but had 18 yards on seven touches against the Vikings. 

Using a short-to-intermediate passing game to keep Denver's pass-rushers honest, as well as open up plays down the field to Calvin Johnson in the fourth quarter, will create enough points for the Lions to get things going offensively. 

Until Manning proves he's capable of avoiding mistakes and not taking a beating behind a young offensive line, the Broncos will continue to struggle on offense. They've gotten lucky the first two weeks, but eventually those sands in the hourglass run out.