NFL Predictions Week 3: Guaranteed Picks, Top Matchups and Odds Guide

Believe it or not, we're already a week away from the first run of bye weeks. The cold reality of the NFL regular season is that it's only 17 weeks. It would have taken you longer to watch the entire run of failed ABC sitcom Cristela than it does a typical NFL season.

So, the league is already one-eighth of the way through its slate. This week we'll get one step closer to the quarter mark, at which point we can start really making bold proclamations about the state of the NFL. For now, we're left to wonder if the Eagles, Colts and Seahawks can get their acts together and if the Jets, Cardinals and Panthers are contenders despite their roster flaws.

All of that, for now, is one big shrug emoji. We're not to the point yet where our preseason assumptions can be thrown out the window, which makes the pick-making process difficult.

It's a balancing act between on-paper talent and on-field results. Sure, we're all picking Seattle to beat Chicago at home. But are we comfortable enough to take this iteration of the Seahawks laying three scores?

Those are the questions we're seeking to answer here. With that in mind, let's take a look at some of the best bets on the board for Week 3 and highlight the picks you need to know. 

Game	Line	Pick
Washington at N.Y. Giants	NYG -4	Giants
Cincinnati at Baltimore	Balt. -2.5	Ravens
New Orleans at Carolina	Car. -3	Saints
Oakland at Cleveland	Cle. -3	Browns
Atlanta at Dallas	Atl. -1	Falcons
Tampa Bay at Houston	Hou. -7	Buccaneers
San Diego at Minnesota	Minn. -1	Chargers
Jacksonville at New England	NE -14.5	Patriots
Philadelphia at N.Y. Jets	NYJ -1	Eagles
Pittsburgh at St. Louis	Even	Steelers
Indianapolis at Tennessee	Ind. -3	Colts
San Francisco at Arizona	Ariz. -7	49ers
Buffalo at Miami	Mia. -2.5	Bills
Chicago at Seattle	Sea. -16	Bears
Denver at Detroit	NL	Broncos (pick)
Kansas City at Green Bay	GB -7.5	Packers

Guaranteed Picks

Washington at New York Giants (-4)

Alex Brandon/Associated Press

Forgive me if I'm not exactly sold on Kirk Cousins' ability to get the win in New York. Cousins has been surprisingly solid through two games, completing 75.9 percent of his passes and throwing for two touchdowns against as many interceptions. 

That said, the last time Cousins went head-to-head with the Giants he threw four picks. The conservatism he's shown over the first two weeks is promising, but it's also unsustainable if Washington hopes to have an effective offensive attack. Cousins has thrown only six passes that have traveled 20 or more yards and has completed as many to the opposing team as his own (one), per Pro Football Focus.

Eventually, Cousins is going to have to air it out. Odds are things end poorly when he does. (It's also worth noting that the Giants have been stellar against the run, so Cousins' best form of protection might not be there Thursday night.)

Atlanta Falcons (-1) at Dallas Cowboys

Matt Rourke/Associated Press

On Sunday, the Cowboys will start Brandon Weeden at quarterback, Joseph Randle at running back and have Terrence Williams as their top receiver. Jason Witten is still around, sure, but he has fewer body parts that aren't hurt than ones that are. 

Let's contextualize. The Cowboys have basically subbed out Tony Romo, DeMarco Murray and Dez Bryant for Weeden, Randle and Williams. Keep in mind that Williams was the team's No. 2 last season. The trickle-down means Cole Beasley is now a No. 2 receiver in the NFL.

Right now, the Cowboys might have the league's worst offensive skill position talent. Their 2-0 record is merely a nice buffer until Romo and Bryant come back late in the season; the NFC East is so bad they might still have a chance. As for beating an Atlanta team that finally appears to have its act together on both sides of the ball? NOOOOOOOPE.

Pittsburgh Steelers (even) at St. Louis Rams

Jared Wickerham/Getty Images

The Steelers are averaging 24.5 more yards per game than any other team. Fourth-place San Francisco is closer to 11th-place Washington than it is to Pittsburgh. It's only a two-game sample, but it's remarkable the Steelers have been this efficient with Le'Veon Bell and Martavis Bryant out due to suspensions.

They get Bell, who was only the NFL's best running back last season, back this week. That should be a nightmare for St. Louis, which laid an egg against Washington after what appeared to be a momentum-building win over Seattle in Week 1.

The Rams have not been generating the same level of pass-rushing excellence as they were a year ago, and their front seven allowed Matt Jones and Alfred Morris to carve them up last week.

The Steelers' offensive line, meanwhile, has made DeAngelo Williams look like a Pro Bowler the past two weeks. Don't be surprised if Bell's return is a big one.

Games of the Week

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5)

Andy Lyons/Getty Images

The Bengals could put their division rivals away for good with a win Sunday. While dropping to 0-3 would not mathematically eliminate the Ravens from playoff contention (because duh), it would put them on life support. Only five teams in NFL history have started 0-3 and gone on to make the postseason.

Given the strength of the AFC North, the odds of the Ravens doing so would be minimal. They still have both Pittsburgh games and a trip to Cincinnati on their schedule, along with non-divisional games against Seattle, Kansas City, Arizona and Miami. That's seven games against playoff contenders; going 4-3 in those contests would put the Ravens at 4-6 if they were to drop Sunday's game.

"We've got to get better as a team—and fast," Marshal Yanda said, per David Ginsburg of the Associated Press. "That's the bottom line. There's no magical formula."

The Ravens' formula may want to include consistency in the secondary. A week after making the world at large discuss the supposed demise of Peyton Manning, Baltimore's secondary made Derek Carr look like a Greek God. Carr threw for a career-best 351 yards and three touchdowns, with Michael Crabtree (yes, that one!) and rookie Amari Cooper both going over 100 yards. 

Per Ginsburg, Ravens head coach John Harbaugh said:

"

We had missed tackles, we had missed assignments, we had breakdowns in coverage, we had missed alignments. We played about as unsound as you can play in a lot of different ways.

If we're going to have a chance to be a successful football team, our defense is going to have to step up and play the way the Ravens play.

We expect to play great defense around here, and that's just not what we did on Sunday.

"

The Bengals, meanwhile, trounced the Oakland team that defeated Baltimore a week ago and overcame their own mistakes to sneak past San Diego.

Jeremy Hill's two costly fumbles helped the Chargers keep the game close, but Andy Dalton came away with a three-touchdown game to continue his flawless start to 2015.

Dalton has, historically, been pretty dreadful against the Ravens, so we'll have to see if recent history prevails. If it does, we might be able to stick a fork into a Baltimore team some picked for the Super Bowl.

Kansas City Chiefs at Green Bay Packers (-7.5)

Scott Halleran/Getty Images

What a disaster last week was for the Chiefs, who were seconds away from defeating the Broncos or at worst going to overtime and wound up coughing the game away.

First, Manning matriculated down the field 80 yards in 10 plays, connecting with Emmanuel Sanders for a 19-yard touchdown to tie the game. Then the second of two Jamaal Charles fumbles landed in the hands of Bradley Roby, who returned the ball 21 yards for a backbreaking touchdown.

"Don't let this beat us again," Chiefs linebacker Justin Houston said Thursday night, per the Associated Press. "We beat ourselves. We had too many turnovers, we gave up too many big plays on defense, so just get in the film room and look at what we did wrong, learn from our mistakes and move forward."

The Packers are coming off a game in which they exorcised their Seahawk-shaped demons. Aaron Rodgers came through with 249 yards and a pair of touchdowns against a Seattle defense that had vexed him in past matchups, leading Green Bay to an impressive 27-17 victory.

There appears to be no stopping Rodgers or the Green Bay offense despite the loss of Jordy Nelson and the injury issues of running back Eddie Lacy.

Overall, though, this is a matchup of two of the better teams in football. Kansas City, barring injury, is still heading to the playoffs regardless of its last-minute breakdown against Denver.

Alex Smith is the king of solid-but-not-spectacular, Charles is among the three best running backs in football and Jeremy Maclin at the very least gives Kansas City an outside dynamic it could use.