Jacksonville Jaguars vs. New England Patriots: Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

New England is almost always favored these days, and sometimes by big numbers. However, the Patriots don't seem to care about those big numbers, going just 1-8 against the spread when favored by double-digit points over the last three seasons.

New England will go off as double-digit chalk again when it hosts Jacksonville on Sunday afternoon.

Point Spread: The Patriots opened as 14-point favorites. The total was 47.5 early in the week.

Odds Shark Computer Pick: Patriots 29.1, Jaguars 17.0

Why the Jaguars Can Cover the Spread

The 1-1 Jags are coming off one of their better performances in recent seasons, a 23-20 victory over Miami. Jacksonville scored roughly six minutes into the game and never trailed after that, later driving 66 yards in the final two minutes for the game-winning field goal, getting the outright win as six-point home dogs.

The Jaguars rushed for 123 yards to the Dolphins' 42 and committed zero turnovers.

Jacksonville opened this season with a 20-9 loss at home to Carolina, missing ATS as a three-point home dog. But the Jags gained more than yards than the Panthers that day, and the defense gave up just one offensive touchdown.

Quarterback Blake Bortles has only completed 54.8 percent of his throws so far this season, but three completions gained 46 yards during the game-winning drive on Sunday. Rookie running back TJ Yeldon came up with 70 yards on the ground, although it took him 25 carries to do it.

If young Jacksonville can avoid the letdown after last week's victory, it could keep this one close.

Why the Patriots Can Cover the Spread

The defending Super Bowl champs are off to a 2-0 start (1-0-1 ATS) after beating the Bills 40-32 in Buffalo on Sunday.

New England spotted its hosts the first touchdown of the game, then scored 37 of the next 43 points to blow things open. The Patriots let the Bills then score three times in a row to pull within five points, but they held on for the victory as one-point underdogs.

New England eschewed the running game on Sunday, letting quarterback Tom Brady throw the ball 59 times. He completed 38 passes for 466 yards and three scores without a pick.

The Patriots opened this season with that 28-21 victory over Pittsburgh and would have covered as seven-point favorites had they not allowed a meaningless Steelers score on the game's final play from scrimmage.

New England has taken care of business against two quality opponents. Jacksonville doesn't yet qualify as such.

Smart Pick

New England, of course, is very likely to win this game. The only matter to decide is the final margin. But playing at home means the spread is inflated. The smart money in this spot probably resides with the Jaguars.

Betting Trends

• The Patriots are 9-1 straight up in their last 10 games against the Jaguars.
• The Jaguars are 1-9 SU and ATS in their last 10 games as September underdogs.
• The total has gone under in the Patriots’ last five games as home favorites in September.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.