Indianapolis Colts vs. Tennessee Titans Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The bad news for the Indianapolis Colts is that they are still searching for their first win of the season as they visit the Tennessee Titans in a key AFC South matchup on Sunday. The good news is that the Colts have won the past seven meetings with the Titans, both straight up and against the spread.

Point spread: Colts opened as five-point favorites; the total was 48 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 25.2-23.5 Colts

Why the Colts can cover the spread

Indianapolis was thoroughly embarrassed in all phases of the game during its 20-7 loss to the New York Jets on Monday night. And despite playing on a short week, the Colts know their opponent as a division rival and will be ready to roll come Sunday. They have absolutely dominated AFC South opponents over the past few years, going 13-0 SU and 12-0-1 ATS in their last 13 divisional games.

Tennessee was also mistakenly made a favorite away from home last week against the Cleveland Browns and fell flat in a 28-14 loss after routing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 42-14 as a three-point underdog in the season opener. While the Titans may in fact be improved this year, they are still not nearly the same caliber of team as Indy.

Why the Titans can cover the spread

Tennessee split its first two games of the season SU and ATS on the road and will finally get to play its home opener against the best team in the division. Playing the best should bring out the best in the Titans, especially since the Colts looked less than mortal against the Jets on Monday night.

This is about as vulnerable as Indianapolis has been since the team drafted Andrew Luck, as he is facing a lot of pressure to help the Colts become the first team to start 0-2 in successive years and still make the postseason.

Meanwhile, Marcus Mariota remains the new face of the Titans franchise and hopes to bounce back from a mediocre performance versus the Browns after lighting up the Bucs. Mariota is still a wild card and will be hard to prepare for due to his inexperience and unpredictability as a rookie. That should also work in Tennessee’s favor.

Smart pick

The Colts are small road favorites here and deserve to be no matter how bad they have looked in the first two games. Since they lost their first two games last year, too, and ended up making it all the way to the AFC Championship Game, Indy head coach Chuck Pagano will remind his team of that fact and use it as motivation.

There is a reason the Titans have been dominated by the Colts over the years, and facing a fired-up bunch looking for their first victory certainly won’t help matters. Look for Indianapolis to continue its mastery of divisional foes with a win and cover at Tennessee.

Betting trends

The Colts are 7-0 SU and ATS in their last seven games against the Titans.

The total has gone under in the Colts’ last six games on the road.

The Titans are 1-4 SU and ATS in their last five games in September.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.