Roy Nelson vs. Josh Barnett: A Head-to-Toe Breakdown
Top 15 heavyweight action headlines this weekend's fight card in Japan. No. 8-ranked contender Josh Barnett and No. 11-ranked Roy Nelson face off in an attempt to get back into the heavyweight title picture.
Barnett hasn't been in the Octagon since December 2013 when he suffered a knockout loss to Travis Browne. Nelson has dropped his two most recent fights against Alistair Overeem and Mark Hunt.
Barnett has a storied career in Japan, most in the Pride organization but has not returned to fight in the country since 2010 at Dream 13. He has been an American staple overseas, doing both MMA and professional wrestling in Japan.
These two large men are well-matched. They both are more than capable on the feet, but their strength comes from their quality grappling.
Who holds the edge this weekend? There's no reason to waste time, let's break down the main event for UFC Fight Night 75.
Striking
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They say numbers never lie, but in this instance they are a bit misleading.
The FightMetric stats for their striking lean toward Barnett. He has a longer reach (78 inches compared to just 72 for Nelson) and is better in every single scoring category. He lands more significant strikes per minute on average, is more accurate, absorbs less punishment and has a better defensive percentage.
If you look at all that, you might be inclined to say Barnett is far and away the better striker. But that's not the case.
Barnett is solid on his feet but nothing spectacular. Nelson is a bit quicker with his hand speed, and he has more power as well. The difference between the two is that Barnett is more measured with his striking. Nelson has historically tried to trade and absorb strikes in order to try to land his KO blow.
Nelson falls in love with his right hand. Thus, he forgoes actually setting it up, which makes him predictable. This is a big cause for his low accuracy.
If Nelson stays disciplined, he's the overall better striker. That's a big if, but Big Country still has the advantage in this category.
Edge: Nelson
Grappling
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Both Barnett and Nelson are solid grapplers, but one of the biggest distinctions between them is their ability to get the fight to the mat. Barnett holds a clear edge there.
Nelson is no slouch at stopping the takedown, but that's about where the positives stop.
Barnett should be able to win the positional battles against the cage and have the better chances to put Nelson on his back. That is Barnett's best game plan in most fights, and it remains that way against Nelson. The good news for Barnett is that he should be able to accomplish doing just that.
Once on the mat, the difference in grappling narrows a bit.
Nelson has some grappling acumen once a fight is on the canvas. The issue for him in this matchup is he will most likely be defending off his back. That's not going to be good for him.
Edge: Barnett
Submissions
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Nelson's grappling has been brought up time and again, and most know that he is competent on the mat. But he certainly hasn't shown the ability to finish via submission in MMA in a long time.
When was his last submission win? Almost a decade ago in 2006. On the plus side, he has never succumbed to a submission.
Barnett is one of the best catch wrestlers to ever do it, and he continued to build his legacy in that department last year by submitting Dean Lister at Metamoris.
Nelson will be a difficult opponent to submit, but Barnett has all the tools to get it done. It is difficult seeing either man tap out the other, but with this being a five-round fight, don't put it past one of them to seize the moment against a fading foe late in the fight.
Barnett has a better track record and thus has the edge.
Edge: Barnett
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X-Factors
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Barnett's X-Factor: What's Left in the Tank?
It is just a fact that Father Time catches up to all athletes, and Barnett is 37 going on 38. His athletic prime is behind him. What does he have left?
Barnett has been in 40 professional MMA fights, a litany of grappling matches and countless brutal training sessions. Combat sports have taken a toll on him, and his last outing in the cage resulted in a brutal KO. Has the year away revamped him physically and mentally? Or will we get an emphatic negative answer to this question?
Nelson's X-Factor: Establishing Distance
Nelson cannot win this fight with his back on the cage or on the mat. As such, he needs to maintain distance.
His jab will have to be his primary weapon. He has a solid jab, and if he commits to it, he can lay the ground work for his right hand. However, if he becomes predictable on the feet, then Barnett will time his punches in order to counter or change levels for a takedown.
Prediction
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I have a difficult time seeing this matchup go to a decision, but I also can't pinpoint a win by either man by KO or submission. It is a hard fight to predict.
I don't see Nelson landing the knockout shot, and that is likely his only pathway to victory. With more outs, I have to settle on Barnett as the winner.
Heavyweights tire quickly, and this fight will support that statement. Their styles will make for an ugly fight after the first two rounds. That favors Barnett. And though Nelson could hold on to simply lose a decision, I predict Barnett will sink in a choke.
A tired Nelson will allow Barnett to cinch in the rear-naked choke in the final round. This will be a grueling fight with a lot of work against the fence. Barnett wears down his opponent and finishes.
Prediction: Barnett defeats Nelson via submission in the fifth round.
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