Believability Meter on the Week's Biggest Rumours: Stones, Valdes, Gaya
John Stones to Real Madrid in place of Raphael Varane, Youri Tielemans on Arsenal's wishlist and Valencia's Jose Gaya and FC Porto's Ruben Neves both attracting interest from afar.
Transfer gossip really is refusing to slow down this September.
Over the following pages, we take a look at those rumoured moves and, with the aid of our trusty (and somewhat cynical) believability meter, assess the likelihood of any of them happening.
Keep reading and you'll also find the latest on Charlie Austin's situation at Queens Park Rangers, plus our thoughts on Chelsea's apparent interest in Victor Valdes and a number of potential new midfielders.
Charlie Austin: A January Move to Newcastle United
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In January, Newcastle United will attempt to sign Charlie Austin from Queens Park Rangers, according to Luke Edwards in the Telegraph.
The 26-year-old was rumored to be on his way out of Loftus Road over the summer, but QPR held firm with their £15 million valuation of the striker, as seen on BBC Sport.
With Austin already into the final 12 months of his contract, the January window could see him made available for a cut-price fee, as Edwards reported:
"Newcastle United will test Queens Park Rangers’ resolve to retain Charlie Austin in January after they refused to meet the £15 million asking price this summer.
Austin had interested Newcastle for months and that intensified when Steve McClaren became head coach as he had worked with the striker during his time as first team coach at Loftus Road.
However, the Magpies were unwilling to pay the fee for Austin, 26, particularly as they are wary of potential problems with his knee.
Austin has since vigorously denied suggestions that he would fail a medical, but the striker is expected to see out the remaining year of his contract and leave for a Bosman-style free transfer in June.
However, Newcastle are expected to offer around £6 million in the January transfer window.
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Austin has notched 44 goals in 80 games for the Hoops since signing from Burnley in 2013. Six of those strikes have come in his first seven games of the 2015/16 season.
Believability Meter: Medium to High
Meek performances from Newcastle have seen them score just three goals so far this term, and in the lower reaches of the Premier League table after six games, it's clear that they are lacking up front.
They spent £13 million on Aleksandar Mitrovic over the summer, but the Serbian has been too busy collecting bookings—two yellows and one straight red—to weigh in with goals for the Magpies.
Austin looks like he would be a perfect fit at St. James' Park, and Newcastle really should have thought about spending £15 million on him over the summer.
Could it happen in January? Well, it's a move that would certainly make sense for McClaren's side, and there's a high chance it could go through.
However, don't be too surprised if Austin stays at QPR, ends the season as Championship top scorer and moves on a Bosman in summer 2016.
Arsenal Lining Up January Bid for Youri Tielemans
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Arsenal have been linked with a January move for Anderlecht youngster Youri Tielemans.
Speculation suggests the Gunners could make a £14 million offer for the midfielder's services, as seen on CalcioMercato (h/t Liam Corless in the Mirror).
The 18-year-old has come up through the youth system with Besnik Hasi's side, with whom he has won the Belgian Pro League and two Belgian Super Cups, not to mention been named Young Footballer of the Year for the last two seasons.
In 93 games for Anderlecht, Tielemans has bagged 13 goals and 13 assists to date.
His contract—which was extended over the summer—is designed to run until 2020.
Believability Meter: Low
Arsenal were linked with a host of transfer targets over the summer, a trend that won't slow down between now and January.
The rumoured interest in Tielemans is likely to stem from last season, when the then-17-year-old Belgian had two 90-minute outings against the Gunners in Group D of the Champions League.
Of course, plenty of attention has been coming his way since 2013, when he became the youngest Belgian player to play in the Champions League at the age of 16 years, four months and 25 days.
Despite the rumours, we can't see Tielemans going anywhere in January. He is far too integral at his boyhood club to leave midway through the campaign and, although he has been impressing, still has plenty to learn.
Tielemans' contract extension was probably engineered to ensure Anderlecht can command a bigger fee when he does eventually move. Regardless, we think he'll continue his development at Constant Vanden Stock Stadium for a few years yet.
Stamford Bridge Beckons for Victor Valdes?
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Chelsea could offer Victor Valdes an escape route from Manchester United if reports are to be believed.
It is unlikely that the former Barcelona goalkeeper will play for Manchester United again, having fallen out of favour with Louis van Gaal, as seen on ESPN FC.
With just two Premier League games under his belt for United last term and having not even made the bench in 2015/16, he has been tipped to join Jose Mourinho's side as backup for No. 1 Thibaut Courtois, who has been ruled out for a number of months with a knee injury.
As reported by CalcioMercato (h/t James Cambridge in the Express):
"The former Barcelona star has spent all of this season watching from the stands with youngster Sam Johnstone preferred on the United bench.
However, Chelsea could offer the 33-year-old a route out of Manchester as they desperately seek back-up for Thibaut Courtois. ...
And with only 21-year-old Jamal Blackman in reserve, the Blues are expected to bring in Valdes.
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Valdes came to Old Trafford on an 18-month contract in January 2015 after his Barcelona deal ran out the previous summer. The 33-year-old had previously been training with United as he recovered from a serious knee injury.
Believability Meter: Low to Medium
Set to join Besiktas over the summer until a proposed move fell through, as seen on BBC Sport, Valdes is very likely to leave Manchester United in January.
However, we don't think that his next home will be Chelsea. The Blues already have an excellent No. 2 in the shape of Asmir Begovic, and 21-year-old Jamal Blackman will get his chance should they need to use a third-choice 'keeper.
We also don't think United would sanction a move to their top-flight rivals, no matter how keen they are to offload the Spaniard.
Valdes to leave? Yes. Valdes to Chelsea? No.
Real Madrid: Raphael Varane Out; John Stones in
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John Stones could be on his way to Real Madrid next summer as a replacement for Raphael Varane, who has been linked with Manchester United, according to Spanish newspaper AS (h/t Adam Skinner in the Express).
The 21-year-old defender was chased by Chelsea for much of the summer, with Everton reportedly turning down four bids from the London club.
With talk of a contract extension at Goodison Park in the offing, it has been reported Stones would like a £38 million release clause in any new deal, as reported by Sami Mokbel in the Daily Mail.
Now it seems Madrid could come calling if his French counterpart goes to Old Trafford in 2016.
Stones is under contract with Everton until 2019, and Varane's current deal at the Bernabeu is set to expire in 2020.
Believability Meter: Low
In times gone by, strikers were the ones who grabbed all the headlines when it came to transfer talk, but these days, centre-backs are just as likely to dominate chatter on the back pages.
It takes a real stretch of the imagination to see any of this happening. For a start—as we discussed last week—we struggle to believe Madrid would consider letting Varane go.
We are now led to believe Madrid have earmarked Stones as the France international's replacement, with absolutely no evidence to back that up—the Everton man just happens to hold the position as the defender du jour in the rumour mill.
Of course, talk of a release clause will always heighten speculation, as it gives a sense that a player is somewhat available. Of the teams that could afford that release clause, Madrid are right up there.
Does this mean that we will see Stones pitching up at the Bernabeu? Absolutely not.
Elite Clubs Chasing Valencia's Jose Gaya
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Reports coming out of Spain suggest Real Madrid, Manchester City and Chelsea will soon be locking horns in an attempt to sign Jose Gaya from Valencia.
According to Fichajes (h/t Louis Sealey in Metro), Chelsea and City are both weighing up January transfer window moves for the full-back, and as Sealey reported, "Gaya, who has played 36 games for Valencia’s first team, is also the subject of interest from Real Madrid, meaning an intense transfer battle between some of Europe's elite clubs could be set to unfold."
The 20-year-old left-back, who came through the youth system at Valencia, has a contract that is designed to keep him at Mestalla until 2020.
This deal was extended on May 8, 2015, as seen on the club's official website. At the time of signing the extension, Gaya said he was, "Very happy and proud to extend my deal with Valencia. It's what I wanted from the beginning and in the end things have turned out as both parties wanted. We've both emerged as winners from this and it is another dream come true."
In April, the Spain under-21 international was said to be on Arsenal's radar, as Spanish reports (h/t Will Giles in Metro) indicated.
Gaya has made 47 appearances for Los Che in all competitions since making his first-team debut in the Copa del Rey in 2012/13.
Believability Meter: Low to Medium
It is only natural Gaya's impressive outings for Valencia seem to have been exciting a number of top clubs, and rumours linking him with an exit from the Liga side are nothing new.
Since Juan Bernat departed for Bayern Munich in summer 2014, Gaya has been first-choice left-back at Valencia, where he is a key player for Nuno Espirito Santo. With the side back in the Champions League this season, he will likely continue in that first XI role.
We've grown accustomed to seeing this club selling top talent in recent years, but now, under the stewardship of Peter Lim, the pressure to move on talent for big money has been reduced, even with financial fair play regulations in mind.
Of course, we would not completely rule out a move for Gaya if Madrid arrived at the Mestalla with chequebook in hand and eager to meet his £36 million buyout clause.
However, that switch would be very unlikely to happen in January.
If at all, our money would be on next summer. This story goes on ice until then.
Chelsea, Barcelona and Real Madrid Watching Ruben Neves
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Chelsea would like to sign FC Porto's Ruben Neves in January but may face competition from Barcelona and Real Madrid, according to reports.
As seen on HITC Sport (h/t Adam Skinner in the Express), the Premier League side are interested in the 18-year-old, who has come up through the youth system at Estadio do Dragao, with Madrid and Barca also said to be keen.
In January, while being compared to Barcelona midfielder and Spain international Sergio Busquets, Neves was being linked with Liverpool, Real Madrid, Juventus and Paris Saint-Germain, as reported by Ben Jefferson in the Express.
The defensive midfielder is under contract with Julen Lopetegui's side until 2017.
Believability Meter: Low
There is little meat on the bones of this story, which appears to be based on "sources close to a potential deal," and our believability meter always reverts to cynical mode when a piece of gossip starts off like this.
It's easy to see why Chelsea's name is in the frame. By their standards, they've had a bad start to the Premier League season, their midfielders have been a shadow of their 2014/15 selves and Jose Mourinho used to manage Porto—so naturally, he wants to "raid" his old club.
Neves has all the makings of a future star, and Porto do not shy away from selling on names at impressively inflated prices. But although Neves is already a regular in the Dragoes midfield and already played for the Portugal under-21s, his time to move has not yet arrived.
We reckon Neves will continue to grow in Liga NOS and sold on for a hefty fee in the coming years.
However, this is not a transfer that will happen in January, when Porto rarely conduct any of their big business.
Chelsea Preparing to Swoop for Marko Grujic
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Chelsea have sent scouts to watch Red Star Belgrade midfielder Marko Grujic, as claimed on Transfer Market Web (h/t James Cambridge in the Express).
This is ahead of a proposed January move to Stamford Bridge. As Cambridge reported, "Grujic has already had interest from Bundesliga side Hamburg, who have already had an offer rejected by the player over the summer. The midfielder instead elected to sign a new contract with Red Star, keeping him at the Serbian club until 2018."
Grujic has been a regular performer for Crveno-beli this term and looks set to enjoy a breakout season, appearing in nine out of a possible 10 SuperLiga games so far.
He won the Under-20 World Cup in New Zealand with Serbia in the summer.
Believability Meter: Low
Chelsea are linked with a relatively inexperienced teenage midfielder ahead of the January transfer window in the Express. This all sounds a bit familiar.
As with the rumours linking Jose Mourinho's outfit to Ruben Neves, the Blues' relatively poor results in the Premier League this season have acted as a catalyst for a number of spurious rumors linking them with new midfield recruits.
Is a 19-year-old from Red Star Belgrade—with only 20 first-team performances under his belt—the answer?
OK, so we haven't even seen Grujic play, and maybe he is the next *insert star midfielder's name here*. But we are very dubious he will end up at Stamford Bridge in January, if at all.
All player and contract information comes from Transfermarkt.com unless indicated otherwise.
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