Fantasy Football Week 2: Advanced Stats, Metrics and Player Projections

Week 2 of the fantasy football season is just a couple of days away, so it’s time to once again look at some of the advanced stats and metrics you can use to lead your fantasy team to victory.

We provide player projections for the week’s top-five options at each position in this article.

What can you expect from Andrew Luck after a down week to start the season? How will Tony Romo fare in the first game without Dez Bryant? Which Cowboys receiver is expected to pick up most of the slack?

Additionally, you’ll learn why you can trust Bishop Sankey—yes, Sankey—as a flex player for your fantasy team in Week 2.

The answer to these questions and more await inside.

Quarterbacks: Drew Brees Gets Dream Matchup vs. Buccaneers

Associated Press

Drew Brees is in line for a big day against Tampa Bay in Week 2.

Drew Brees gets a fantastic matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, a team that just gave up four touchdowns (in one half) to a rookie in his first career start. Brees is in line for a massive day. The Seattle-Green Bay, Atlanta-New York and Dallas-Philadelphia games also all feature quarterbacks with high ceilings in fantasy this week.

The Projections

There are no surprises in the top five this week. However, notably absent is Tom Brady, Week 1’s highest-scoring quarterback. He slips toward the bottom of the QB1 conversation in Week 2 because he faces a stout Buffalo defense that gave Andrew Luck fits in Week 1. Plus, Rex Ryan, who has a history of giving Brady trouble, now coaches the Bills.

1. Drew Brees (vs. TB): 25-of-33, 340 yards, 4 touchdowns, 0 interceptions—25.6 fantasy points
2. Andrew Luck (vs. NYJ): 30-of-45, 307 yards, 3 touchdowns, 1 interception—22.3 fantasy points
3. Aaron Rodgers (vs. SEA): 22-of-33, 255 yards, 3 touchdowns, 0 interceptions—22.2 fantasy points
4. Matt Ryan (at NYG): 26-of-38, 265 yards, 3 touchdowns, 1 interception—20.6 fantasy points
5. Tony Romo (at PHI): 24-of-34, 295 yards, 3 touchdowns, 2 interceptions—19.8 fantasy points

Stats to Know

• Luck attempted 49 passes in Week 1 but completed only 53.1 percent of those passes. His career completion percentage is 58.4 percent. Look for him to be a high-volume passer once again in Week 2 but with a higher completion percentage. If Johnny Manziel can connect on a deep ball against the New York Jets, so can Luck. 

• Brees only attempted 33 or fewer passes—our projected number for him this week—twice last season. But the Saints have a fresh Mark Ingram in the backfield, a player who wasn’t used much last week (only nine carries). With the Saints expected to have this game wrapped up by the fourth quarter, Brees won’t be asked to do quite as much and Ingram will be leaned on to finish the game on the ground. That doesn't hurt Brees' value so much as illustrate that he will only need three quarters to do his damage. If the Buccaneers are able to keep this game close, Brees' numbers will be even higher.

• Philip Rivers had over 400 passing yards against the Detroit Lions in Week 1. It was his first 400-plus yard game since October 2013. He’s averaged about 250 yards per game throughout his career. The veteran will come back down to earth and should be considered more of a tail-end QB1 than top-five material.

What the Metrics Say

• Rodgers didn’t even throw for 200 yards in Week 1, but he still scored 0.82 fantasy points per dropback, tied for second-most in the league in Week 1, according to Pro Football Focus.

• Eli Manning suffered six dropped passes in Week 1. That puts him on pace for 96 drops this season; he only saw 30 of his passes dropped in 2014. (Manning’s passes won’t be dropped 96 times in 2015, but that gives you an idea of how many six in one week is.)

• Cam Newton was accurate on 80 percent of his passes when under pressure last week. J.J. Watt will get his, but Newton should keep his cool.

Running Backs: Adrian Peterson to Bounce Back

Associated Press

Adrian Peterson struggled in Week 1 against the 49ers.

Adrian Peterson was a dud in Week 1, carrying the ball just 10 times for 31 yards against the San Francisco 49ers on Monday Night Football. He looked indecisive at times.

However, we still saw glimpses of the Peterson of old, such as when he took a screen pass and carried what looked like the entire 49ers defense on his back en route to a first down. Peterson still has it; let’s chalk his poor Week 1 up to rust.

The Projections

1. Marshawn Lynch (at GB): 23 carries, 105 rushing yards, 2 touchdowns; 3 receptions, 27 receiving yards—25.2 fantasy points
2. Jeremy Hill (vs. SD): 22 carries, 100 rushing yards, 2 touchdowns; 2 receptions, 20 yards—24 fantasy points
3. Adrian Peterson (vs. DET): 20 carries, 95 rushing yards, 2 touchdowns; 3 receptions, 30 yards—23.5 fantasy points
4. DeMarco Murray (vs. DAL): 16 carries, 72 rushing yards, 1 touchdown; 7 receptions, 40 receiving yards—20.6 fantasy points
5. Matt Forte (vs. ARI): 23 carries, 90 rushing yards; 5 receptions, 55 yards, 1 touchdown—20.4 fantasy points

Stats to Know

• The Detroit Lions gave up two rushing touchdowns on the ground last week (both to Danny Woodhead). That's yet another reason to look forward to a Peterson bounce back. 

• Carlos Hyde stole the show in Week 1 when he carried the ball 26 times for 168 yards and two scores against the Vikings, good for an average yards per carry (YPC) of 6.5—nearly two full yards higher than his career average of 4.6. Hyde is still safer as a high-end RB2 than as an RB1, but he’s on the cusp, and a big game against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 2 could push him into the RB1 conversation once and for all.

• Chris Ivory and the New York Jets gashed the Cleveland Browns last week to the tune of 154 rushing yards. Only three teams gave up more rushing yards than the Browns in Week 1. Up next is the much-maligned Bishop Sankey, who put together an impressive game in Week 1 with 74 rushing yards and a 6.2 YPC average. Sankey is a strong flex play in Week 2 given the matchup.

What the Metrics Say

• DeAngelo Williams forced eight missed tackles in Week 1—most among all running backs. With Le'Veon Bell still suspended, Williams is a strong RB2 play with RB1 upside.

• Per Pro Football Focus, Ivory scored nearly one fantasy point per opportunity (PPO), with an opportunity being defined as a carry or a route run. He did that damage despite being targeted just once through the air. He’s a must-start again in Week 2 against an Indianapolis Colts defense that gave up two rushing touchdowns last week.

• Giovani Bernard needs more snaps. He forced five missed tackles on just 13 touches in Week 1. The speedster is a flex play who has immense upside should the Bengals lean on him more than expected.

Wide Receivers: Don't Worry About Davante Adams

Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports

Davante Adams

Julio Jones and Antonio Brown were the only A-list wide receivers to show up in Week 1, and those two players find themselves atop the rankings again in Week 2. Odell Beckham Jr. also stays in the top three despite a subpar outing in the first week of the season. He will play against the Atlanta Falcons in Week 2, who gave up 10 catches and 100-plus yards to Jordan Matthews in the first game of the season.

The Projections

1. Antonio Brown (vs. SF): 8 receptions, 115 yards, 2 touchdowns—23.5 fantasy points
2. Julio Jones (at NYG): 7 receptions, 107 yards, 1 touchdown—16.7 fantasy points
3. Odell Beckham Jr. (vs. ATL): 8 receptions, 105 yards, 1 touchdown—16.5 fantasy points
4. Calvin Johnson (at MIN): 6 receptions, 100 yards, 1 touchdown—16.2 fantasy points
5. A.J. Green (vs. SD): 7 receptions, 95 yards, 1 touchdown—15.8 fantasy points

Stats to Know

• The Philadelphia Eagles gave up 16 receptions, 246 yards and two touchdowns to wide receivers (mostly Julio Jones) last week. If Dez Bryant were healthy, he’d likely be the No. 1 fantasy wideout this week. But while Bryant’s targets will be divvied up across a bevy of players—including Terrance Williams, Jason Witten and Cole Beasley—nobody is expected to see a higher boost in production than Williams. With the favorable matchup in Week 2, Williams has WR2 appeal.

• Davante Adams was a letdown in Week 1. He caught four passes for 59 yards and failed to score while watching James Jones and Randall Cobb combine for three scores. However, there’s no reason to fret. Adams was targeted a team-high eight times in Week 1; Cobb and Jones were targeted nine times combined.

• Brandon Coleman had nearly has many targets (seven) as Brandin Cooks (eight) in Week 1. He was also targeted in the red zone on a designed play, which resulted in a touchdown. The second-year wideout has WR3 appeal, but the impending return of pass-catching back C.J. Spiller and the involvement of Willie Snead should hold you back from going all-in on Coleman. He is still worth a flier, but let's see him do it more than once before placing a huge bet.

What the Metrics Say

• One-third of Allen Robinson’s targets were 20-plus yards down the field in Week 1, tied for ninth-most among all qualifying receivers, according to data from Pro Football Focus. Look for that number to drop, as Robinson was only targeted 20-plus yards down the field on 17.1 percent of his targets in 2014. Robinson is WR2 material as long as the Jaguars don’t misuse him. 

• Andrew Luck’s passer rating when throwing to Andre Johnson was just 8.3 in Week 1—the second-lowest between a quarterback and wide receiver in the league. (Only Steve Smith Sr.-Joe Flacco’s rating of 2.8 was worse.) Johnson still has WR2 talent and is in an offense that can tap that potential, but his connection with Luck needs to grow before that becomes a reality.

• Jacksonville’s Rashad Greene was targeted 13 times—tied for second-most in the league among all wideouts—but gained just 28 yards. This is a prime example of volume not being everything in fantasy. Volume is extremely important, but it’s just one piece of the puzzle.

Tight Ends: Greg Olsen Will Feast on the Texans

Phelan M. Ebenhack/Associated Press

Greg Olsen

Jimmy Graham secures the No. 2 spot among tight ends heading into Week 2 thanks to how the Seahawks used him in Week 1. He was targeted in the red zone (and scored), which indicates that he remains an elite TE1 option in Seattle. And while Greg Olsen disappointed in Week 1, there's reason to believe he'll bounce back in impressive fashion.

The Projections

1. Rob Gronkowski (at BUF): 6 receptions, 97 yards, 2 touchdowns—21.7 fantasy points
2. Jimmy Graham (at GB): 5 receptions, 73 yards, 1 touchdown—13.3 fantasy points
3. Greg Olsen (vs. HOU): 7 receptions, 70 yards, 1 touchdown—13 fantasy points
4. Jason Witten (at PHI): 6 receptions, 63 yards, 1 touchdown—12.3 fantasy points
5. Martellus Bennett (vs. ARI): 5 receptions, 56 yards, 1 touchdown—11.6 fantasy points

Stats to Know

• The Houston Texans were dominated by tight end Travis Kelce in Week 1, giving up two scores and 106 yards. The Texans play the Carolina Panthers in Week 2. This week has “rebound” written all over it for Greg Olsen.

• Buffalo’s Charles Clay is a sneaky sleeper pick this week. The Patriots gave up eight receptions for 84 yards to Heath Miller in Week 1. Clay was targeted four times in Week 1—tied for second-most on the team. 

• San Francisco’s Vernon Davis was targeted a team-high six times in Week 1. But he wasn’t required to do too much, as Carlos Hyde was more than enough for the 49ers to beat the Vikings. But the 49ers may look Davis’ way even more often in Week 2 when they face the Pittsburgh Steelers, a team that gave up four touchdowns to tight ends in Week 1.

What the Metrics Say

• Jordan Reed’s 11 targets led all tight ends in Week 1. However, he gained only 5.7 yards per target, ranked 30th among qualifying tight ends, according to Pro Football Focus. He is a borderline TE1 based on volume, but similar to what was pointed out in the wide receiver slide, volume is not everything. If Reed’s volume was high-quality, he’d be getting much more attention. 

• Former New Orleans tight end Jimmy Graham ran 46 pass routes in Week 1 for the Seattle Seahawks, most among all tight ends. 

• Current New Orleans tight end Ben Watson ran 45 pass routes, second-most behind Graham. He’s not going to replicate Graham’s numbers, but it appears Watson will be the main tight end threat through the air for the Saints. This makes Watson a TE2 option. With that said, he will really need to see more targets to even be considered for a starting spot in fantasy, but the opportunity is certainly there.

Kickers: Get Ready for Long-Range Attempts from Janikowski

Associated Press

Sebastian Janikowski

Dallas’ Dan Bailey easily tops the kicker rankings in Week 2, as the Cowboys face the Philadelphia Eagles, a team that surrounded 17 fantasy points to kickers in Week 1—tied for second-most in the league.

The Projections

1. Dan Bailey (at PHI): 3/3 FGs, 3/3 XPs—12 fantasy points
2. Stephen Gostkowski (at BUF): 2/2 FGs, 3/3 XPs—9 fantasy points
3. Justin Tucker (at OAK): 2/2 FGs, 3/3 XPs—9 fantasy points
4. Steven Hauschka (at GB): 2/2 FGs, 2/2 XPs—8 fantasy points
5. Matt Bryant (at NYG): 1/1 FGs, 3/3 XPs—6 fantasy points

Stats to Know

• According to NFL.com, kickers are “currently on pace to flirt with 70 missed PATs,” which would be significantly higher than the eight missed all of last season. 

• Despite the extra-point misses, kickers were still on point with their short-range field goals in Week 1. Only one kicker—San Francisco’s Phil Dawson—missed an attempt under 40 yards in Week 1, and his attempt was blocked (it wasn’t an outright miss).

• The Ravens gave up two field goals of 50-plus yards in Week 1. The rest of the NFL combined only gave up three 50-plus yarders. Sebastian Janikowski plays the Ravens next. You do the math.

Defense and Special Teams: Miami a Strong Play Again

Patrick Semansky/Associated Press

As always, look for defenses that are playing against a team that has deficiencies at quarterback. Nothing screams opportunity like a quarterback who telegraphs passes, which opens up the door for a D/ST touchdown on any given play. Jacksonville, Washington, Oakland and Houston all have serious quarterback questions, with the latter team (Houston) even switching starting quarterbacks after just one week.

The Projections

1. Miami Dolphins (at JAX): 17 points allowed, 2 interceptions, 2 fumble recoveries, 4 sacks
2. St. Louis Rams (at WAS): 17 points allowed, 3 interceptions, 4 sacks
3. Baltimore Ravens (at OAK): 20 points allowed, 2 interceptions, 1 fumble recovery, 2 sacks
4. Carolina Panthers (vs. HOU): 20 points allowed, 2 interceptions, 4 sacks
5. Houston Texans (at CAR): 24 points allowed, 1 interception, 1 fumble recovery, 4 sacks

Stats to Know

• Jacksonville gave up the most fantasy points to D/ST units in 2014. One week into the 2015 season and the Jaguars already rank at the bottom again. The Dolphins are a strong D/ST play in Week 2, just like they were last week.

• With Tampa Bay's rookie quarterback Jameis Winston telegraphing some passes, the New Orleans Saints D/ST offers high upside in Week 2 if you’re streaming defenses.

• Baltimore’s key defender Terrell Suggs is out for the season, but the Ravens are still a strong D/ST to play in Week 2. Their Week 2 opponent—the Oakland Raiders—gave up the 10-most fantasy points to D/STs in Week 1.

The rankings for each position come via the expert consensus rankings compiled by FantasyPros.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats in the “Stats to Know” sections throughout the slideshow came via ESPN.com or via NFL.com.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats in the “Metrics to Know” sections throughout the slideshow came via Pro Football Focus.