5 Bold Predictions for Indianapolis Colts' Week 1 Matchup

The Indianapolis Colts' season is about to begin.

With a trip to Buffalo lined up, the Colts are looking forward to what the team thinks is "their year," according to Lars Anderson of Bleacher Report. That means not only returning to the AFC Championship Game, where the team lost a heartbreaking 45-7 to the New England Patriots last season, but advancing to the team's first Super Bowl appearance since 2009.

That journey starts in Buffalo on Sunday.

The Bills project as a typical Rex Ryan-coached team: a talented, aggressive defense with an offense that will likely depend on running the football. In the past, this is the kind of team that has given the Colts fits, but Indianapolis generally dominated teams with sketchy quarterback play last season.

Recently named starter Tyrod Taylor presents a different element from the Colts' 2014 opponents, however, as he's a quarterback who can run. It adds a different element to the game, one that could sway the contest in the Bills' direction if the Colts offense can't figure it out.

Is that something that's likely to happen, though? We take a look at that and more in the season's first set of bold predictions.

Andre Johnson Lights It Up

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Andre Johnson drew a lot of attention by signing with the Indianapolis Colts this offseason.

Not only is Indianapolis a division rival of Johnson's longtime team, the Houston Texans, but there was an impression that Johnson would finally get to play with a real quarterback, increasing his value exponentially.

But with all the targets on the Colts offense, Johnson wasn't a target monster in the preseason, seeing just five targets in 43 snaps, according to Pro Football Focus. Johnson wasn't Luck's No. 1 target, that honor goes to T.Y. Hilton, and it should continue that way.

All that being said, Johnson could have a huge game against the Bills on Sunday.

Yes, the defense is stingy, but the Bills were only 22nd in the league against No. 2 wide receivers last season, according to Football Outsiders' DVOA metric. According to Tyler Dunne of the Buffalo News, No. 1 cornerback Stephon Gilmore will track No. 1 receivers this season, leaving Johnson to go up against rookie Ronald Darby.

Per Dunne, Darby has struggled this preseason, and Johnson is a future Hall of Fame receiver. While he may not put up big numbers every week in a Colts offense designed to spread it out, look for Johnson to get targeted early and often by Andrew Luck as the Colts try to get the ball out of the pocket quickly.

Charles Clay Steps Up

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If the Bills are going to be competitive offensively this season, they'll need one or more of their receiving options to step up.

The roster is filled with high potential players who have yet to put it together for a full season, from Percy Harvin to Sammy Watkins. There is talent there, but not much in the way of established, dependable production.

For Sunday's game, tight end Charles Clay has a big chance to be that guy.

The Bills gave Clay a five-year, $38 million contract in the offseason, and since Clay has not made a career of being a dependable blocker, it would seem that the tight end may have an important role to play in the passing offense.

New offensive coordinator Greg Roman has directed offenses with high-volume tight end roles before, running the show in San Francisco when Vernon Davis was a breakout star, coaching at Stanford when Coby Fleener and the read-option was a big part of the offense and coaching in Baltimore when Todd Heap led the team in receiving.

Meanwhile, the Colts ranked 26th in the league against tight ends last season, per Football Outsiders' DVOA. While the team added Sio Moore to add some speed to the linebacker crew last week, and have been using rookie safety Clayton Geathers as a nickel linebacker, it's worth noting that there will be some growing pains in those transitions.

The Bills will likely try to establish a ground game with Tyrod Taylor and LeSean McCoy's big-play ability, and play action will certainly be an option from there. Clay is an explosive playmaker, and could be utilized over the top on quick read-option fakes if the Colts get sucked into the box.

Field Goals, Field Goals, Field Goals

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Because of the offensive-defensive matchups available in this game, field goals are going to play a critical role.

The Bills defense shouldn't be able to keep the Colts offense completely stymied, as there are enough holes in the secondary for Luck to exploit, even if the offensive line is having a rough day. Likewise, I don't expect the Colts defense to stifle the Bills all day either, not even if Tyrod Taylor's passing crumples under the pressure of a real defensive game plan.

The Colts had an effective offense last season, but they were just 13th in red zone DVOA, according to Football Outsiders. The Bills finished 29th in that metric.

Both offenses should thrive when the defense is stretched out in the middle of the field. When the Colts get into the red zone and have to run the ball, Buffalo's defensive front will present a large hurdle to overcome. When the Bills get into the red zone, windows will be much tighter than they were in the middle of the field, and Taylor will have to prove his passing game can hold up.

There should be plenty of work to go around between Dan Carpenter and Adam Vinatieri. In what could end up being a low-scoring affair, each kick will be critical.

Andrew Luck Doesn't Get Sacked

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This is where the boldness of our "Bold Predictions" comes in.

Let's start by getting this out of the way: The Bills are going to pressure Andrew Luck.

Buffalo was the best team in the league in Adjusted Sack Rate last season, according to Football Outsiders. It's a defensive line that has Mario Williams, Kyle Williams and Jerry Hughes rushing the passer at any given time. Even with Marcell Dareus sitting out due to a one-game suspension, the Colts will have their hands full.

The thing is, Andrew Luck is pretty good at avoiding sacks.

Luck was pressured 36.2 percent of the time last season, according to Pro Football Focus, but he was only sacked on 11 percent of those pressure plays, which was the third-lowest figure in the league. And that doesn't mean Luck excelled at leaving the pocket either, the third-year quarterback got by with exceptional pocket presence and movement, among other characteristics.

Plus, the Colts will be coming into this game with a specific game plan in mind, which will be to keep Luck out of trouble as much as possible.

The Colts have relied on deep dropbacks and long-developing passing plays as their staple, but it's not as likely we see that against a defensive front as talented as the Bills. We'll see a lot of quick passes and long, time-consuming drives as the Colts try to give the defense time to breathe after chasing Taylor and McCoy around.

The 2013 opener against the Raiders and Terrelle Pryor, where the Colts had just seven drives all game, is a good comparison.

So the bold prediction is that Luck avoids sacks for the day, although he'll certainly be pressured often and hit multiple times. The Colts offensive line has a long way to go before he can be kept completely clean.

Tyrod Taylor Can't Finish

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If the 2013 game against Oakland does end up being an apt comparison, this game will likely still be close at the end, and quarterback Tyrod Taylor will have a chance to make a couple of key plays to give Buffalo a chance to win it.

I'm not confident in that happening.

While Taylor has had some success in the preseason, going up against live defenses who have game-planned specifically for you is a much different story.

Taylor will find room to use his legs throughout the game, and the combination of that and McCoy's threat in open space will likely open up lanes in the passing game to be exploited. If he can find those lanes throughout the game, the Bills will keep the game close.

But if the game is close at the end, Taylor will, at some point, have to drop back, read the field and throw a critical pass. The Colts have thrived on taking advantage of poor-to-mediocre passers in the past, and I expect that to be the same here.

Taylor may provide some exciting plays, but when push comes to shove, the Colts trust Andrew Luck to get the job done much more than the Bills trust Taylor.

Final Score: Colts 23, Bills 17