Miami Dolphins vs. Washington Redskins Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Washington Redskins are 2-7 straight up and 3-6 against the spread the last nine times they've hit the gridiron at FedEx Field as home dogs. The Redskins will do so again when they open this season by hosting newcomer Ndamukong Suh and his Miami Dolphins Sunday afternoon in Landover.

Point spread: Dolphins opened as 1.5-point favorites; the total was 44.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 23.7-22.4 Dolphins

Why the Dolphins can cover the spread

Miami got to 7-5 last season, but lost three of its last four games to finish at 8-8 for the second straight time under head coach Joe Philbin. The Dolphins upset New England in the season opener, lost close games to Green Bay, at Detroit and at Denver and finished 4-4 both SU and ATS on the road and 2-1 ATS as road favorites.

The Dolphins made 52 more first downs last season than their opponents, won average time of possession, committed fewer turnovers and outscored foes by 15 points, numbers much more indicative of a team with a winning record.

And quarterback Ryan Tannehill upped his passing rating (92.8) for the third straight year. Over the offseason, Miami enhanced its 12th-ranked defense by signing a monster defensive tackle in Suh, so expectations are as high for this season as they've been in a while.

Why the Redskins can cover the spread

Washington went 4-12 last season, its first under head coach Jay Gruden, so there's nowhere to go but up. The Redskins pulled off upsets against Dallas and Philadelphia, the last two NFC East champions, and lost several tough games while playing through a mess of a quarterback situation.Washington ranked 13th in total offense and actually outgained opponents on the season, but the minus-12 turnover ratio hurt.

This year, the Redskins begin with Kirk Cousins at quarterback, and while he isn't exactly Sonny Jurgensen, he might provide a measure of stability at the position. And running back Alfred Morris has hit the 1,000-yard mark three seasons in a row.

If Washington can run the ball some, play a little defense and avoid the turnovers, it could keep this one close.

Smart pick

Miami owns the advantage in the quarterback comparison, on defense and in attitude; it's just difficult to figure how Washington is going to play itself out of the funk it's in. The smart play in this spot is the Dolphins, giving the points.

Betting trends

The Dolphins are 0-5 ATS in their last five games.

The total has gone over in the Redskins' last three games.

The Redskins are 1-6 SU in their last seven games as home underdogs.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.