Minnesota Vikings vs. San Francisco 49ers Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

Public betting support for the road team has transformed the San Francisco 49ers from home favorites to underdogs against the Minnesota Vikings in the second game of the Monday doubleheader. Much of the move has to do with the perception that the Vikings are vastly improved with running back Adrian Peterson back on the field and that the 49ers are much worse without head coach Jim Harbaugh.

Point spread: The 49ers opened as 4.5-point favorites; the total was 42 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 21.5-20.3 49ers

Why the Vikings can cover the spread

Minnesota may have finished last season with a losing record, but many betting experts think this team has a bright future after going 8-2 against the spread in its final 10 games to end 2014. The Vikings lost Peterson early due to suspension and were also breaking in a new quarterback in rookie Teddy Bridgewater.

That made the season challenging for first-year head coach Mike Zimmer, who did a great job of keeping his team competitive despite winning just seven games. Zimmer has focused on defense after previously serving as the defensive coordinator for the Cincinnati Bengals, the Atlanta Falcons and the Dallas Cowboys.

But he also realizes you need a good offense to outscore opponents, and he has the talent in place to do just that.

Why the 49ers can cover the spread

San Francisco was a disaster down the stretch last season after rumors swirled that Harbaugh would be leaving the team to coach his alma mater, Michigan. The 49ers failed to cover the spread in their last five games, going 1-4 straight up, but they started last year with some promise at 4-2 before the wheels came off.

With new head coach Jim Tomsula taking over after serving as defensive line coach for eight years, there will be some familiarity but also some new enthusiasm and new success at Levi’s Stadium. San Francisco struggled immensely in the team’s first year there, going 1-7 ATS and 4-4 SU.

Tomsula can hopefully re-energize his players and make them believe in themselves again after everything they went through last season under Harbaugh.

Smart pick

Tomsula is a bit of an unknown, but he has an excellent opportunity to jump into the conversation for Coach of the Year if he can lead the 49ers to a winning record. They have talent on both sides of the ball despite losing key veterans such as running back Frank Gore (free agency) and linebacker Patrick Willis (retirement).

Too much has been made of this team’s fall from grace, and Minnesota is being overhyped as a potential playoff contender. The Vikings are 0-4 ATS in their last four games as favorites in September, and they will find it too tough to win this one on the road in Week 1.

Betting trends

• The Vikings are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games.
• The total has gone under in six of the 49ers' last seven games.
• The 49ers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games at home.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates, and get the free odds tracker app.