2015 NASCAR Sprint Cup Stock Watch: Week 26
After 25 weeks, it all comes down to this for more than a dozen Sprint Cup drivers: one race and you’re in.
All you need to do is win.
Unfortunately, far too many drivers need a win and as of yet have not been able to do so even once in 2015.
What’s more, even with 14 drivers still able to win and make the Chase for the Sprint Cup at this Saturday night in Richmond, only one can actually do it.
That is, of course, unless a driver who already has at least one win this season—and is already locked into the Chase—reaches Victory Lane yet again.
This week’s Stock Watch is a little bit different than previous editions this season. We already know who is locked into the Chase, and for the most part, we also know where they’ll likely start the playoffs when the points are reset after Richmond.
What we’re going to do with this Stock Watch is focus solely on nine drivers who are on either side of the bubble to make the Chase.
There are those who are in the green, so to speak, heading to Richmond. And then there are those in the red, who will only make the Chase with one last Hail Mary bid for a win.
Here’s how the stock on either side of the Chase needle looks for the potential haves and have nots:
Jamie McMurray
1 of 9
With a 44-point lead over the last driver on the Chase bubble, Clint Bowyer, Jamie McMurray is about as near-certain to make the Chase as anyone.
What’s more, if McMurray leaves Richmond in the green, it will be the culmination of 14 years of struggles and hardship to get to this place.
He will have made the Chase for the first time in his Sprint Cup career.
Now, let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves and anoint Jamie Mac as a potential Chase champion. But let’s definitely tip our hat at him for making it this far.
Everything after Richmond in the Chase will be a bonus for him.
VERDICT: BUY big for him to make the Chase, but hold about his playoff chances until we see what he does in the first two Chase races.
Ryan Newman
2 of 9
If at first you succeed, try it again.
That best describes Ryan Newman, who used nothing but outstanding consistency to not only make the Chase last season, but then also ride that same pony all the way to a runner-up finish in the championship battle.
Newman is doing the E-X-A-C-T same thing this season. Consistency and points matter. Wins don’t.
And let’s not forget, Newman hasn’t won a Sprint Cup race since the 2013 Brickyard 400.
Newman is 32 points ahead of Bowyer heading into Richmond. Both like the .750-mile short track; both have had success there.
But in the battle of the Rocketman (Newman) vs. the Kansas Tornado (Bowyer), we go with Newman.
VERDICT: BUY, buy, buy—Newman will make the Chase easily. All he has to do is finish 32 spots ahead of Bowyer in Saturday’s race, which shouldn’t be all that hard (unless Bowyer or someone else wrecks Newman early in the race).
Jeff Gordon
3 of 9
I admit, I’m worried about this one. I think Jeff Gordon can make the Chase, but he has a difficult task ahead of him.
In addition, he has just a meager 18-point lead over Bowyer.
Given Gordon’s propensity to be involved in numerous wrecks this season that have not been of his fault, one has to wonder if the wreck jinx will hit him again at Richmond and he’ll be caught up once again in someone else’s mess.
End result: an exit from the race and he falls short of missing the Chase in his 23rd and final season as a Sprint Cup driver.
VERDICT: PUSH. In our last edition of Stock Watch, I recommended liquidating almost all of your Gordon stock—and maybe keep a few shares for posterity. Well, posterity is here, so what do you do?
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Paul Menard
4 of 9
Oh boy, I do not like the situation Menard is in.
He’s just 10 points ahead of Bowyer, who also happens to be his Richard Childress Racing teammate—along with Ryan Newman.
Like Jamie McMurray, Menard has never made it to the Chase. And after great anticipation over the last few weeks, now his chances of doing so are 50-50 at best.
Menard can rise to the occasion at times, much like how he won the Xfinity race two weeks ago at Road America.
But to be honest, Richmond is one of his absolute worst tracks: In 17 starts, he has just one top-five. That’s it. Not even an additional top-10.
VERDICT: SELL…at least half. This way, you don’t get totally wiped out. And if he makes the Chase, the value of your remaining shares just went up.
Clint Bowyer
5 of 9
Deja vu for Bowyer, too.
Clint is in the same place that he was last season at this time. He appeared ready to make the Chase going into Richmond, but he fell short leaving Richmond.
Could it be, as Herman’s Hermits used to sing, “Second verse, same as the first”?
Bowyer has a very good record at Richmond: In 19 starts he has two wins, four top-five and 11 top-10 finishes.
That’s the good news.
Now the bad: Bowyer has not won a Sprint Cup race since 2012 (fall race at Charlotte). If he hasn’t won up to now this season, what makes anyone think he’ll win Saturday?
VERDICT: PUSH. This one is just too close to call. For Bowyer to make the Chase, he’s going to have to drive the race of his life, nothing less. Only two drivers have the chance of overtaking him via points: Aric Almirola (29 back) and Kasey Kahne (31 back). I wouldn’t want to be in Bowyer’s shoes right now.
Aric Almirola
6 of 9
If we were Aric Almirola, we’d likely be saying right now, “Darn you, Kyle Busch.”
For if Busch hadn’t come back from his devastating crash in February, if he hadn’t won four races and, most importantly, become Chase-eligible by being in the top 30 in points, Almirola would be on the plus side of the Chase bubble right now.
Instead, though, he’s 29 points behind Clint Bowyer for the final spot on the Chase grid.
Granted, Almirola has a pair of top-10 finishes in seven starts at Richmond, but it is going to be very difficult for him to overcome Bowyer.
VERDICT: SELL. Almirola, unfortunately, will not make the Chase. We really would like to see him make it into the Chase two years in a row, but we just don’t think it is in the cards.
Kasey Kahne
7 of 9
If there’s any driver among the nine here that we have strong confidence he can race his way into the Chase, it’s Kasey Kahne.
What’s more, he’s one of only two drivers in a position to do so via either points (of course, he’ll have to pass Clint Bowyer and hold off Aric Almirola) or by a win.
Kahne has a so-so career record at Richmond. In 23 starts, he has one win, four top-five and eight top-10 finishes (plus one pole).
He finished a strong fifth there in the spring—his best finish at RIR since he was fifth in the spring 2012 race.
VERDICT: BUY. Call it a gut feeling, but I’m going out on a limb and calling a real Hail Mary longshot: Kahne makes the Chase by hook (a win) or crook (Bowyer and Aric Almirola fall short).
Kyle Larson
8 of 9
Keep your eye on Kyle Saturday night.
No, we’re not talking about Kyle Busch (although he certainly has an excellent chance to win).
And we’re not talking about Kyle Petty (although he’ll be on the NBC telecast).
No, we’re talking about the guy who has continued the NASCAR tradition of the sophomore slump, Kyle Larson.
After a great rookie season in 2014, Larson has been virtually unheard from in 2015. I wouldn’t be surprised if some fans might even wonder if he’s still racing in Sprint Cup, given he has just one top-five and seven top-10 finishes in 24 starts (he also missed one race).
That’s compared to eight top-five and 17 top-10 finishes as a rookie last season.
I’ve been saying for quite some time that Larson is a win waiting to happen. Even though his best finish in three Cup starts at Richmond to date has been 11th (in this race last year), he is a true short track demon.
And with team owner Chip Ganassi recovering after a bike accident, what better way to further ingratiate himself to the boss than to win one for the Chipster.
VERDICT: BUY. Yes, Larson is a longshot, but think of the payout if he wins: He earns his first Cup victory and, most importantly, he makes the Chase.
Tony Stewart
9 of 9
Last, but certainly not least, is three-time Sprint Cup champion Tony Stewart.
What a story Stewart has been this season. Unfortunately, it’s not the right kind of story.
He’s had, without question, the worst year of his Sprint Cup career.
But there’s one way to salvage it and make the Chase at the same time: W-I-N Saturday at Richmond.
And yet, despite his bad season, I think Stewart can still make the Chase. And if he does make it, he could potentially be a game-changer in the 10-race playoff.
First and foremost, he has a tremendous record at the ¾-mile track: 32 career starts, three wins 11 top-five and 19 top-10 finishes.
Second, even though he finished 15th at Darlington, it was so good to see Stewart lead 10 laps in the race. It was like old times, vintage Stewart—and perhaps a sign of things to come at Richmond?
VERDICT: BUY every possible share you can. If there was ever a must-win race for Stewart in his career, this one is it. And let’s not forget, he hasn’t won a race since 2013. He’s long, long, long overdue.
Follow me on Twitter @JerryBonkowski.
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