Mayweather vs. Berto: Expert Picks for the Main Event
Floyd Mayweather, undefeated in 48 professional prize fights, will step into the ring Saturday against Andre Berto, ostensibly for the last time. Though the bout has inspired much criticism in the boxing world, a lot is on the line, much more than Mayweather's WBC and WBA welterweight world championships.
For Mayweather, who has made an undefeated record the focal point of his Hall of Fame career, the absence of defeat defines him. At this point a loss, any loss, would be devastating. It's that zero-sum mentality, perhaps, that prompted Mayweather to choose Berto as his final foe.
A failed prospect, Berto has never lived up to his potential. Yet he's found his way to the top, despite his failings, suddenly one improbable victory away from rewriting his own history.
"He feels like he has nothing to lose," Mayweather told the press during a conference call. "And I think that when you got a guy that's put in that situation, it makes him work that much harder because he got a chance to be one of the top guys in the sport when I'm through.
"It's like they say in football, any given Sunday. I say, 'Any given Saturday, anything can happen.' So I'm prepared. I'm prepared mentally and physically. I'm in top shape. I'm ready. I'm pretty sure he's in top shape, and he's ready. But I'm not going to overlook him."
Can Berto pull off an upset for the ages? Or will Mayweather ride off into the sunset as his generation's most legendary boxer? Our crack boxing team has a few thoughts on the topic.
Have some of your own? Drop us a line in the comments.
Who Wins the Fight? When and How?
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Lyle Fitzsimmons: Andre Berto has had a better professional career than 99 percent of the guys who ever try to make boxing their living. But that doesn’t mean he’s capable of beating a Floyd Mayweather Jr.
He may confuse the 38-year-old with a tactical approach, and he may be athletic enough to have a moment here or there, but Mayweather will eventually do what Mayweather does. He’ll figure his man out. He’ll make adjustments on the fly. And faced with an inferior opponent, he’ll break with recent character and finish the job in the middle rounds.
Kelsey McCarson: Mayweather wins by unanimous decision. It won’t be very competitive. Even if Berto hits Mayweather, it won’t do much good unless he knocks him out cold, and there is nothing to suggest in either man’s history that something like that will happen.
My hope is that Berto goes out there and just leaves everything in the ring. He should attack Mayweather relentlessly and try to out-throw him every second of every round. But I suspect once Berto starts eating Mayweather right hands, he’ll hold back a bit like most everyone else seems to do versus Mayweather and lose a wide decision.
Kevin McRae: Berto’s win came with the exposure and paycheck he’ll receive from this fight. He has no shot in the ring, short of a miracle.
Mayweather is still a master technician who knows better than anyone in the game how to find and exploit subtle holes in his opponent’s guard. Berto has plenty of holes, so it should be like shooting fish in a barrel for Floyd. If he’s aggressive, a stoppage on cuts/swelling is possible, but it’s more likely he coasts to an easy unanimous decision.
Briggs Seekins: I expect this fight to look very familiar. Floyd Mayweather will win by unanimous decision and may not lose a round. Berto simply lacks the skill and athleticism to contend in this fight.
At the end of the night, Mayweather will have landed over 50 percent of his punches. Berto will have trouble connecting for much above 20 percent. I like Berto as a warrior and would love to see him manage to do something shocking and thrilling. But there's no way I believe a guy who was knocked out by Jesus Soto Karass two years ago and lost the first five rounds of a fight with Josesito Lopez earlier this year is going to take even a round against Mayweather.
Jonathan Snowden: Short of the most mind-numbing meltdown in sports history, Mayweather's final fight should be his easiest in years. Andre Berto, a fighter who's failed every time the going has gotten remotely tough, doesn't belong in the same ring with Floyd Mayweather.
For some fighters that would be an excuse for a letdown. But Mayweather doesn't have letdowns. His success, as you may have heard, is predicated on hard work and dedication. He'll be ready. Mayweather wins by unanimous decision.
Tom Weir: If Floyd Mayweather doesn't win this orchestrated career finale it will be the biggest upset since Buster Douglas flattened Mike Tyson. Money wants to end with a KO, which likely played into who he selected as an opponent. Look for the end to come sometime after the seventh round. Floyd will go out deceivingly looking like a slugger.
But I expect him to be cautious early while looking to wear down Berto.
The Moment We’ll Remember Most Is…
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Fitzsimmons: When a victorious Mayweather has his swan-song celebration interrupted by a loudmouth interloper—UFC phenomenon Ronda Rousey—who insists on calling his name every time she’s got a fight to promote. She’ll land a verbal jab or two and get herself headlines, if not respect, come Sunday morning.
McCarson: That we didn’t buy the fight? I don’t know. Are that many people really going to buy this thing on pay-per-view? It’s a bunk fight. The tickets don’t seem to be moving very well, and I can’t imagine anyone but the most ardent group of Mayweather fans wanting to spend their hard-earned money on something like that. I know I won’t be watching.
McRae: Is none an acceptable answer? This fight appears to be so stock, so pro forma that nothing really stands out about it. Maybe if Berto rushes right out and tries to maul Mayweather like Marcos Maidana did, that might give us a few isolated moments of excitement in this sea of bleh.
Seekins: To be honest, I'm not sure what, if anything, is going to be particularly memorable about this fight. In hindsight, it's going to blend into most of the rest of Mayweather's late fights. It will be a one-sided decision and a clinic on how to hit while avoiding getting hit. I wouldn't be surprised if Mayweather opts to go toe-to-toe for a couple of quick flurries late in the fight, once the victory is guaranteed.
Snowden: When we think of Floyd Mayweather, we'll remember the cars, the women and the ever-changing collection of bling. Boxing, despite his clear excellence, will be secondary. Mayweather's gift is negating action, not creating it. There will be few memories we'll carry with us from his 49 pro fights when he's gone—and none from Saturday night.
Weir: I'm guessing Mayweather will seize the post-fight interview in the ring to proclaim himself the greatest of all time. We will hear his mouth run faster and longer than ever. And he will have parting words that will be meant to sting his doubters forever.
Will Floyd Have Anything Special Planned for His Entrance?
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Fitzsimmons: The Bieber and Lil Wayne thing feels played out, but they’ll probably be around for one last stroll in the spotlight. Former Arizona Cardinals coaching intern Jen Welter has already said she’ll be there, but there’s got to be something else, too, right? Maybe Rousey leaps out of the crowd to apply a pre-fight armbar. Or maybe they make nice and walk together, which would probably cause Twitter to burst at its digital seams.
McCarson: He’s been pretty laid-back the last couple of fights with his entrances, so I kind of expect him to do the same for Berto. However, my secret hope is that he, Manny and Jinkee Pacquiao, Justin Bieber, Donald Trump and Barack Obama ride in together on a herd of those miniature goats who faint when they get spooked by things.
McRae: Mayweather hasn’t done anything really different since he was walked to the ring by basically the entire cast of one of Las Vegas’ many Cirque du Soleils. He’ll be simple here and get rapped out by Lil Wayne and have his favorite prop (the Biebs) in tow, hopefully with a shirt on.
Seekins: I have to assume Mayweather is going to have some very big things planned for the entrance here. It's being presented as his last go-round, and for a showman like Mayweather, that's going to mean a lot of hoopla. Expect Lil Wayne and the Biebs to be present.
Another circus troupe is a good bet. Maybe Miley Cyrus will join him for the ring walk, wearing some strategically placed balloons. How about Siegfried and Roy and some lions? Nothing would surprise me for this one. I'm not even ruling out that Mayweather finally makes good on his boast that he could get President Obama to join him.
Snowden: After Manny Pacquiao upstaged him by adding late-night host Jimmy Kimmel to his entourage, the pressure is on Mayweather to do something truly memorable.
The problem?
Mayweather's domestic-violence issues have made him damaged goods. Who in their right mind wants to be attached to Mayweather post-Pacquiao? Instead of a circus, I suspect we see a family circus, with Floyd sticking to relatives and friends when he walks that aisle.
Weir: How can Floyd raise the bar on his ring walk as he enters the arena for the final time? How about adding a Rocky Marciano lookalike to his entourage? It would be a fitting nod to the heavyweight champ whose 49-0 career mark Mayweather is about to match.
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Who Will Take the Pound-for-Pound Crown After Floyd Retires?
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Fitzsimmons: It would seem the stage is ultimately set for a middleweight showdown between Gennady Golovkin and (probably) Canelo Alvarez, so the guess here is that one of those two is the next to claim the throne. Long term, it probably gets to Terence Crawford at some point, as well as Vasyl Lomachenko.
McCarson: Roman Gonzalez is the lineal flyweight champion of the world, and he’s the best fighter in the world right now not named Floyd Mayweather. Gonzalez is poised to take over the mantle of top fighter pound-for-pound should Mayweather indeed retire.
McRae: Gennady Golovkin. The Kazakh is a wrecking ball who will be able to stake a pretty persuasive claim to middleweight dominance by the end of the year. David Lemieux will acquit himself well in October but lose, and then hopefully it’s on to Canelo Alvarez or Andre Ward in the new year.
Seekins: There will be no clear-cut consensus for the next pound-for-pound king following Floyd Mayweather's retirement, and it might take a year or more following Mayweather's retirement before everybody agrees on the true pound-for-pound king again. My own choice for the immediate heir will be Roman Gonzalez, a three-division world champion who is 43-0 with 37 KOs.
Snowden: Mayweather has been the best fighter in boxing for so long, it's hard to even think of an appropriate heir. It's never even seemed like a realistic proposition. One thing is for certain—the next pound-for-pound king won't be a major box-office star. Gennady Golovkin hasn't shown he belongs, and Saul Alvarez has proven he doesn't.
The boxing cognoscenti will settle on Guillermo Rigondeaux—and everyone outside the niche will shrug their shoulders and wonder "who"?
Weir: Gennady Golovkin. After Mayweather's era of winning with defense, fans are hungry for a middleweight who wins with violent knockouts. Golovkin, with 30 KOs in 33 fights, is the perfect successor to Mayweather. He also might have the sport's best chin.
Will Floyd Stay Retired After This Fight?
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Fitzsimmons: That depends on your definition of retired. If it means he’ll never fight again: No, he won’t stay retired. If it means he won’t fight again until next spring: Yes, he’ll be retired until a rematch with Pacquiao, [Miguel] Cotto or Canelo on May 7 in Las Vegas.
McCarson: History says he won't, but I kind of hope he does. There are no more interesting fights left out there for him (that he would take anyway). He’s had a tremendous career, made a ridiculous amount of money and can retire undefeated and on top of the sport. He should just do that.
McRae: That’s the question. It would be such a Mayweather thing to do. He fights Berto, claims it’s his last fight and flips the proverbial bird to all his critics by actually meaning it. But the MGM Grand is opening a new 20,000-seat arena early next year, so the allure of that, plus win No. 50 and boatloads of cash, will bring him back one more time.
Seekins: Retirements rarely last forever in the sport of boxing. Considering the type of money Mayweather could make if he came back in a year, I am very skeptical that this will truly be his last fight.
If he does come back, I hope it's to fight an emerging star who has made a strong claim to the welterweight division—a last man standing among guys such as Keith Thurman, Danny Garcia, Kell Brook and Terence Crawford. I hope it's not just for a money grab in a return bout with Manny Pacquiao.
Snowden: While Mayweather's convictions seem strong at this point, there's no way he stays retired. The siren call of 50 wins will be too powerful. This is more like a long vacation than a retirement—both for Mayweather and for fans who are tired of his act. In a year Mayweather can come back for another "final" fight. Maybe then he'll give us a sendoff to remember.
Weir: I think Mayweather stays retired. It will make him one of the very few who leaves the ring true to his word and with his legacy totally intact. Being undefeated is the cornerstone of his legacy, and he will want to protect it.
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