Mayweawther vs. Berto: Odds and Round-by-Round Predictions for Saturday's Fight
It feels a bit different than last time, right?
Four months ago in Las Vegas, the tension that existed six days prior to Floyd Mayweather Jr.’s fight at the MGM Grand was generational in its proportions.
He was facing a foe many believed he’d never meet. A foe many believed could be the one to end his perfect professional run. A foe with whom he went on to sell a record number of pay-per-views.
This time he’s fighting Andre Berto.
No disrespect intended to the affable Floridian with Haitian roots. After all, the guy is an ex-Olympian and did hold a share of the welterweight championship for nearly three full years from 2008 to 2011.
But he’s still Andre Berto. And there’s a reason he’s a generational underdog.
Now on the brink of age 32—his birthday is Monday—Berto hasn’t exactly been setting the world on fire since his days as the World Boxing Council belt-holder.
He lost his title to Victor Ortiz, failed a drug test that scrapped a rematch and has since managed to beat only the likes of Jan Zaveck, Steve Chambers and Josesito Lopez, while getting pummeled over 12 rounds by Robert Guerrero and stopped in the 12th round by Jesus Soto Karass.
So if you’re wondering precisely why he deserves this shot, you’re not alone.
In fact, the only real angle on which Showtime is able to market this “Money” fight—given the cadre of more palatable competitive options out there—is that it could be the last one we’ll ever see.
Both Mayweather and right-hand man Leonard Ellerbe have stuck to his “I’m retiring after this one” guns, suggesting in a conference call last week that the fighter is far more interested in maintaining his health, running his promotional company and fielding offers that might one day make him a movie star.
But, just to be clear, that doesn’t mean he’s overlooking the guy slotted 22nd among active welterweights by the Independent World Boxing Rankings—yet somehow as the No. 1 contender to Mayweather’s championship by the impossible-to-take-seriously World Boxing Association.
"The older you get, the harder you have to work," Mayweather said.
"It's like in football they say, 'On any given Sunday.' For me, it's 'On any given Saturday.' Berto is coming in with nothing to lose. That makes him dangerous. So I sparred more, and I pushed myself a lot more for Berto than I did for the Pacquiao fight. I'm not overlooking this guy. I want to win just like he does."
Date: Saturday, Sept. 12, 2015
Time: Showtime PPV starts at 8 p.m. ET; main event after 11 p.m. ET
Venue: The MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas
Odds: Mayweather (-3500), Berto (+1200)
Note: Odds provided by Odds Shark and correct as of Sept. 6, 2015 at 9 p.m. ET; subject to change
Round 1
1 of 8
It's got to be motivating when no one gives you a chance to win.
But rather than taking that pent-up ferocity and channeling it into the sort of roughshod aggressiveness that has failed each of Mayweather's recent foes—it's important that Berto take a different tack.
He needs to come out in Round 1 and be the athlete. Use his legs. Work a jab. Make Mayweather play the aggressor. It may not ultimately win the Florida-born Haitian the round on the scorecards, but it's precisely the sort of paradigm shift that could get the always-mentally-in-command champion out of sorts.
10-9 Mayweather
Round 2
2 of 8
Everybody talks about making Mayweather work three minutes of every round. Freddie Roach insisted that Manny Pacquiao would be able to do it. But no one has. And to be successful here, Berto needn't try.
Presuming he stayed upright and on task through a tactical opening round, what Berto would be best served doing for the second three minutes is staying the course. Though Marcos Maidana got some credit for what resembled a freshman-level grappling class in two go-rounds with Mayweather, the last foe to trouble the champion with something beyond roughhousing was an athlete like Zab Judah.
Berto's not left-handed like Zab, but he does have quick hands and he has—at some points in his career—shown an ability to win by means other than simply smothering a foe into oblivion. If Mayweather was expecting another bull counterpart to his matador mastery, Berto would be better served in not providing it, and instead trying to simply out-quick and out-maneuver his man.
10-9 Berto
Round 3
3 of 8
Of course, the problem with a strategy that involves a fighter trying to out-think Mayweather is that Mayweather is a pretty smart guy when it comes to 20-foot squares.
Though he's had problems with guys who approached him with athleticism (like Judah) and those who were at least initially committed to jabbing (Oscar De La Hoya), he has always managed to find a way to neutralize their strengths and begin swaying matters with strengths of his own.
Though a less ferocious Berto may confuse and surprise him early, it's not as if Mayweather can't go on offense himself. If faced with a foe whose aim is to make him force the action, he'll begin doing so rather than waiting too long and tempting the judgment of the guys with the scorecards.
10-9 Mayweather
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Round 4
4 of 8
There's a scene in Rocky II where, when Sylvester Stallone and Burgess Meredith are plotting a strategy for the second fight with Carl Weathers' Apollo Creed, they decide they're going to confuse the champion by fighting right-handed to begin the night before suddenly changing midway through.
Of course, the nuance of that approach is lost with a fighter who's far more caveman than cavalier, but with a guy like Berto—who does have some variety in his toolbox—it may work a tad better.
Though he and trainer Virgil Hunter might well have decided that a cerebral approach would be their best tactic early, there will come a time that a sudden switch to maniacal might come in handy. If Mayweather's settled into a routine where he's been the pursuer for three rounds, having Berto suddenly playing the aggressor could catch him off guard.
10-9 Berto
Round 5
5 of 8
Some people love Mayweather. Other people loathe him. But few would argue there's a reason he's reached the level he's reached. He can do a lot of things in the ring. Not the least of which is adjusting to what his opponent is bringing to him—whether it was anticipated or not—and changing the look of the fight after a few rounds have elapsed.
He did it, as mentioned earlier, against Judah and De La Hoya. He also did it against Ricky Hatton.
And though a lot of people believe he lost the first match with Jose Luis Castillo, he certainly did it when they met again. Chances are pretty good, against a foe who doesn't measure up to any of those others, he'll eventually do it against Berto, too.
If Berto fails to make big things happen with his own bursts of aggression, there will eventually come a point in the fight where Mayweather's punches will begin to have impact. He doesn't typically knock guys out with single shots—unless they're stupidly looking at referees, that is—but he does have the sort of pop that can break guys down over time.
That time, against Berto, probably begins happening around Round 5.
10-9 Mayweather
Round 6
6 of 8
One of the things that's changed about Berto over the years is the punishment he's taken.
As he climbed the welterweight ladder and ultimately held a title belt for nearly three years, he was able—both through skill, and fortuitous matchmaking—to avoid the sorts of fights where he got beaten up.
He was the guy who landed flashy combinations and the sort of slick shots that would render opponents bloody and lumpy-faced by the time their nights were through.
But over the last several years, he's become the latter guy.
Victor Ortiz decked him twice. Robert Guerrero decked him twice. Jesus Soto Karass decked him once. And even Josesito Lopez won five of five rounds on one scorecard and three of five on another, before Berto found right-hand lightning in a bottle to finish his man in the sixth.
What two things do those guys have in common? None of them are known as particularly devastating punchers. And none of them are Floyd Mayweather Jr.
When Mayweather begins landing shots, they'll have an impact. Berto's demeanor will change, his movement will ebb and his face will swell. And the more those things happen, the less time he'll have left.
10-9 Mayweather
Round 7
7 of 8
After five weeks of ho-hum promotion and six rounds of intermittent violence, the supposed career swan song billed as Mayweather-Berto will come to a sudden, though not unexpected, halt.
Having solved his man's early-round trickiness and gradually established himself as the more versatile offensive element in the middle rounds, Mayweather will hurt his man with a leaping lead left hook in the session's first minute, score a knockdown shortly thereafter and ultimately prompt a wave-off in the final 30 seconds before the bell.
Final Wrap
8 of 8
He'll say he's retiring. His minions will say he's retiring.
And in their collective heart of hearts, they may even believe it. But you shouldn't.
Because, quite frankly, there's as much chance of Floyd Mayweather Jr. defeating Manny Pacquiao and ending his career with an Andre Berto fight as there is Tom Brady winning the Super Bowl, beating the Pittsburgh Steelers in the subsequent season opener and then announcing his exit.
In other words, it won't happen. Go ahead and book your airfare. He'll fight in May.
Berto, meanwhile, can get back to the long, slow ride into relative irrelevance that began with the loss to Ortiz and has continued for the last four years. He'll soon graduate to gatekeeper status for hotshot prospects while playing out the string, but as consolation prizes go, $3 million ain't bad.
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