US Open Tennis 2015: Predictions and Tournament Preview
The 2015 U.S. Open will be a late-summer blast of excitement as the year’s final major caps off special bids for history in both the ATP and WTA tours. Unlike last year’s more relative parity that saw four different major winners for both tours, 2015 has witnessed Novak Djokovic's near-domination and Serena Williams' total domination.
But the pressures of history could weigh down on both champions, and there are plenty of strong contenders who will look to to batter their ways to the top. Indeed stars such as Roger Federer, Andy Murray and Petra Kvitova could rise up for titles beneath the sultry dark nights and raucous New York crowds.
Adding to the intrigue are the more neutral conditions with a semi-fast but gritty-blue surface where dangerous big servers and baseliners alike can all contend. It’s the deepest and most ferocious draw to overcome as evidenced by last year’s surprise finalists Marin Cilic and Kei Nishikori.
It’s the annual opportunity for tennis immortality in New York, Jay-Z’s "concrete jungle where dreams are made of." Only one winner on each tour will get to smile and hold up a big silver trophy. Who will they be?
Balance of Power in Men’s Tennis 2015
1 of 10
Although Novak Djokovic had firmly established his place as the No. 1 player heading into 2015, he has more than lived up to his billing this year. In February, he added a fifth Australian Open title to his legacy, and in July he followed up a disappointing loss in the French Open final with a third Wimbledon title.
The tour is centered upon Djokovic. He either wins the big championships, or the others have to go through him to eke out a title. He's trying to hold three of the year's major titles, a rare feat in modern tennis that was last accomplished in 2011...by Djokovic.
But Djokovic slipped a bit in recent stops on the U.S. Open series at Montreal and Cincinnati. Rivals Andy Murray and Roger Federer toppled the Serbian in consecutive weekends to show that they mean business in going after the year’s final major. Although Djokovic has been the most dominant player of the year, by far, he’s not a lock at Flushing Meadows where it’s going on four years since he won his only title here.
This year has also validated Stan Wawrinka's late-career rise, but there has not been a lot of progress from the younger 20-somethings who have continued to be sporadic performers but rarely major threats. Could someone realistically pull a Marin Cilic miracle (or a Cilic encore) and upset the top players on the way to the U.S. Open title?
Meanwhile, superstar Rafael Nadal has fallen upon hard times and is not seriously considered a contender as he struggles against top-10 players. Will the Spaniard be more than an historical sidenote?
Balance of Power in Women’s Tennis 2015
2 of 10
The women’s tour has been ruled by Serena Williams' late-career brilliance. The powerful American has already matched her “Serena Slam” from 2002-03, and now she looks to sweep the calendar Grand Slam, last accomplished in 1988 by legendary Steffi Graf.
Williams has completely demoralized fellow veterans such as Maria Sharapova (who withdrew from the U.S. Open with a right-knee injury) and Victoria Azarenka, but she has also fended off many of the promising but inconsistent youngsters such as Simona Halep and Garbine Muguruza.
There's Serena’s power, experience and legacy, and then there is everyone else staring up at her colossal abilities. Her mental hold on the tour might even be the more impressive feature to her stranglehold. It’s clear that she intimidates the rest of the tour through her competitive fierceness.
Is there any hope for the rest of the field? Could one player for one day get hot and defeat Serena on a day she self-destructs? It’s a slim possibility, but we will examine that one as well.
Men’s Top Storylines for the U.S. Open
3 of 10
There are several possible plot twists, but the top five storylines are as follows:
- Will Novak Djokovic complete his second epic year with three major titles?
- Does Roger Federer now have the complete offensive brilliance he needs to win major No. 18 late in his career?
- Will Stan Wawrinka or Andy Murray create a more heated rivalry with Djokovic, with either player winning a third career major?
- Does Rafael Nadal have enough left to burst through with a retro performance at the U.S. Open, despite falling into his dark tennis abyss?
- Is there another dark-horse veteran or emerging youngster who can win the title?
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
Women’s Top Storylines for the U.S. Open
4 of 10
There are few top contenders who can stand up to Serena Williams, but the WTA is a deep field where second-tier veterans and youngsters are capable of riding momentum and competing for the final weekend. These are the top five storylines:
- How will Serena Williams complete her calendar Grand Slam?
- Could young Americans Sloane Stephens or Madison Keys take one set from Serena in the third or fourth round?
- Who will hold the runner-up trophy from the draw's deeper bottom half, which includes Petra Kvitova, Caroline Wozniacki, Garbine Muguruza, Lucie Safarova, Victoria Azarenka and Simona Halep?
- Maria Sharapova will not play because of her right knee, so Ana Ivanovic, the No. 7 seed is the highest-rated player to oppose Serena in the draw's top half. There are more cupcakes here than at your local bakery.
- Will Serena talk about what it means to win the Grand Slam after the trophy ceremony?
Dangerous Men’s Players to Watch
5 of 10
For now, Stan Wawrinka is the most dangerous player in tennis on a given day. His A-game is huge trouble for the likes of Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer and Andy Murray. Although the two-time major winner won his championships on slower surfaces, at Melbourne and Roland Garros, he was nearly a straight-sets winner (lost the second-set tiebreaker, fourth and fifth sets) against Djokovic in the 2013 U.S. Open semifinals.
If you are intrigued by Nick Kyrgios's volatile talent (strictly speaking tennis), tune in to his first match against Murray because that’s probably the only day he will playing tennis. Murray has impressively hammered Kyrgios in all three of their big matches (2014 Rogers Cup, 2015 Australian and French Opens).
Marin Cilic is unlikely to defend his title, but it will be interesting to see if he can come close.
Although veterans Tomas Berdych and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga are perennial power players who perpetually fall short, they can never completely be dismissed.
How about an emerging player such as Dominic Thiem or Borna Coric catching fire and altering a few projections? What if Grigor Dimitrov suddenly wakes up?
Maybe former No. 1 Rafael Nadal, who dominated the tour just two years ago, will go from dangerous to champion once again. Champions have a lot of pride, and this just might be the turnaround he needs.
Dangerous Women’s Players to Watch
6 of 10
Is Belinda Bencic a real contender at the U.S. Open? She made a statement in winning the Rogers Cup with every match against a top-20-caliber player including semifinal and final wins, respectively, over Serena Williams and Simona Halep. If she believes she is still in that zone, who knows if she can’t make things tough for Serena in the top quarter of the bracket.
Or maybe American tennis fans can resurrect more talks about how dangerous Sloane Stephens and Madison Keys are in Serena’s quarter. Really, any of Serena's opponents will be scrutinized as potentially dangerous to stopping her Grand Slam ambitions.
Garbine Muguruza developed an early reputation as a dangerous clay-court player in defeating Serena at the 2014 French Open, but she has added a fast-surface Wimbledon final two months ago, proving that her athleticism and power are world-class. Can she do it again?
Lucie Safarova and Victoria Azarenka are tough-minded competitors who have enough clout to do damage in the draw. Safarova is more adept on clay, but she continues to improve her lefty attack, and Azarenka’s conditioning and confidence could have a renaissance.
Men’s Title Contenders
7 of 10
Recently we ranked the U.S. Open's top 10 men's contenders, but there are lines of demarcation in this group:
Grade A contenders are Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer, Andy Murray and Stan Wawrinka. They are the clear favorites, and any tennis fan could see any one of them carting off the U.S. Open trophy, even if most would agree Djokovic is a much stronger possibility than Wawrinka.
Grade B contenders are Marin Cilic, Kei Nishikori, Rafael Nadal and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, all long shots, and there's maybe about a 5 percent chance that any one of them wins. There are too many inconsistencies or questions to expect them to get through seven wins in two weeks against a loaded draw. One of them could catch fire, but it's hard to bet on any of them.
Grade C contenders are Tomas Berdych, Richard Gasquet, David Ferrer, Grigor Dimitrov, Dominic Thiem and any number of top-20-caliber players who could win several matches and possibly make a semifinal, but who have not proven they can win a major.
Last year we saw a Grade B contender (Nishikori) lose in the final to a Grade C contender (Cilic was more of a Grade C contender in 2014 and gets upgraded to "B" this year simply because he won the 2014 U.S. Open. Ironically, he played much better in 2014 leading up to the U.S. Open than he has thus far in 2015.), so it's possible we could get moderate or big surprises.
Bottom line: The Group A contenders seem a lot stronger or more motivated this year, so expect them torule.
Women’s Title Contenders
8 of 10
If you knew Samantha Stosur was the last woman not named Serena Williams to win the U.S. Open, back in 2011, you understand that few women on the tour can be expected to win this year's title. With Maria Sharapova sidelined, and Belgian stars Kim Clijsters and Justine Henin long retired, nobody else in the draw can claim a U.S. Open title since 2001 (Svetlana Kuznetsova in 2004).
If we apply our contenders groups to the women’s tour, we might get the following:
Grade A-plus contender is Serena Williams. Nobody else can stand with her, and there are really only a few stars scattered throughout the draw who can claim more than a single major championship. It’s Serena and then everyone else.
Grade B-minus contenders got a bit thinner with Sharapova’s exit, but there are hopefuls such as No. 2-seeded Simona Halep who is still looking for her first major title, or big-name stars such as Caroline Wozniacki and Agnieszka Radwanska, who have also never won a major. At least Petra Kvitova has two Wimbledon titles. Lucie Safarova has played herself into this group for now. Victoria Azarenka might be the most realistic contender in this group if she is playing at her best.
Grade C is basically young talents such as Garbine Muguruza and Belinda Bencic, who have the talent but not the long-term success. Veterans such as Ana Ivanovic and Angelique Kerber could be here, because it would be shocking to see them hold the trophy, and the jury is also still out for Madison Keys and Karolina Pliskova.
Men’s Predictions
9 of 10
Looking for a bold pick? What about someone such as Grigor Dimitrov finally putting it all together and racing through a suspect portion of the draw where Kei Nishikori and Marin Cilic both go down. Did we mention David Ferrer is the other prime contender here? Either way, Dimitrov could potentially get his shot at major respect if he defeats Novak Djokovic in the semifinals. Fat chance on that last part.
Roger Federer might get the biggest assist of all in playing the winner of the Andy Murray-Stan Wawrinka quarterfinal. A physical four-set or long five-set match in which Murray defeats Wawrinka will be the ideal scenario for Federer. Of course Wawrinka could self-destruct before the quarterfinals, but Federer is certainly more comfortable playing and defeating Murray.
And the winner will be Djokovic in four electrifying sets over Federer. This is not Cincinnati, and Federer will find it more difficult to defeat Djokovic who knows that he must win three majors this year for a truly special capstone to his dominance. He has the tools and will get it done.
Women’s Predictions
10 of 10
Let’s end the suspense: Serena Williams will win the U.S. Open, and there will be more legacy articles including her equal Steffi Graf.
The next prediction is chaos. There are plenty of good contenders, but the truth is that many of them are more likely to lose to weaker players than they are to challenge for the title. With only mild confidence, I’m going with Victoria Azarenka vs. Garbine Muguruza for the rights to lose to Serena.
The top portion of the bracket will be entertaining, but go ahead and throw a dart for the semifinalist to oppose Serena. How about Carla Suarez Navarro? Sure, why not?
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
