FedEx Cup Playoffs 2015: Analyzing Postseason Outlook for Top Stars
The 2015 FedEx Cup playoffs have barely begun, just one-sixteenth of the way in following Thursday's first round at The Barclays.
Three rounds still remain in the PGA Tour postseason opener at Plainfield Country Club in Edison, New Jersey, followed by three additional tournaments whose stakes become greater as they go.
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Jordan Spieth leads in FedEx Cup points but is in danger of missing the Barclays cut after an opening four-over 74. Spieth sits nine strokes off the lead held by four players, headlined by Bubba Watson.
Although it's still early in the playoff proceedings, let's take a look at the outlook for golf's biggest stars before the meat of the action materializes.
Jordan Spieth
For a young man who claimed the first two majors of the season, finished one stroke outside of a playoff at The Open Championship and came second only to Jason Day at the PGA Championship, Thursday was a shock.
Spieth's setback is a testament to how difficult golf is. That he had the fortitude and consistency to be in the hunt for all four major championships shows Spieth has real staying power.
The dawn of these FedEx Cup playoffs seemed to play mind games with Spieth, who spoke about his off round that included a six-over 40 on his last nine holes, per PGATour.com's Brian Wacker:
"Typically when I hit the fairways, I'm not over par. That's what was weird about the round. I find a way from the fairway to at least find the green, worst case, and I made a couple mistakes I don't make. Typically when I don't feel that I'm scoring as well as I'm playing is when mistakes come around and that's what happened today. I don't let the chances come to me sometimes. In majors I do a good job of being patient. Other tournaments, I don't. I didn't today.
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Few if any at the moment can get going with the flat iron like Spieth can. His second-round scoring average is 68.5 this season, which leads the PGA Tour. Those factors, along with the fact Spieth missed only three fairways on Thursday, suggest he can bounce back promptly.
Golf Channel's Justin Ray supplies further quantitative analysis to support that notion:
It will take a rather low round from Spieth on Friday just to avoid missing the Barclays cut. Even if he does, Spieth entered the postseason with the most FedEx Cup points in history, so he won't be in a horrendous position.
The current projections have Spieth dropping to second place if he doesn't play the weekend—and that's more because of Watson's presence at the top of the leaderboard.
Bubba Watson
Hopes were high for Watson entering the PGA Championship at Whistling Straits two weeks ago. He lost to Martin Kaymer in a playoff at the venue in 2010 and was fresh off placing second at both the RBC Canadian Open and the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational.
Watson's bid for a third major came up well shy as he wound up tied for 21st. If that fazed him, it didn't show to start The Barclays.
Because of how far Watson hits the ball, he's often left with short clubs in his hands and easier shots than many of his competitors when his drives do find spots of bother. Case in point: his approach to Plainfield's par-four 15th, courtesy of the PGA Tour's official Twitter account:
The blend of imaginative shot-making, booming distance off the tee and purely feel-based game make "Bubba Golf" quite an experience to bear witness to. It can lead to inconsistency at times, but Watson has enjoyed sustained success in his past five stateside starts.
Beginning that stretch [with] a win at the Travelers Championship, Watson has been striking the ball incredibly well, hitting well over 70 percent of greens in regulation. He missed only four greens in his opening Barclays round. That type of form from tee to green is easily enough to get Watson inside the top five ahead of the Tour Championship.
As is most often the case with Watson, his putting will determine how well he fares in the playoffs.
If the flat stick is on and Watson is keeping his drives in play, he is almost unbeatable. Ranked 52nd in total putting this season, it's hard to count on Watson on the most important strokes. At least he applied the pressure out of the gates playing alongside Spieth and Day.
Jason Day
All is well on Day's end on the surface. He posted a two-under 68 to start The Barclays when it would've been easy to have a letdown off a record-setting 20-under-par performance at the PGA.
Unfortunately, Day suffered a back injury on Tuesday, forcing him to withdraw from Wednesday's pro-am, per the Associated Press, via USA Today. The back flared up on him again Thursday:
No one can question Day's desire and toughness. Those are clear elements of his mental makeup, evident in how he battled Thursday, the way he fought through a nagging bad thumb last season and the bouts with vertigo he persevered through at the U.S. Open.
After so many close calls in majors past, Day had the ultimate test at Whistling Straits when Spieth was with him in the final pairing. To his credit, the Aussie never backed down, striping drives throughout and holing key putts to stay ahead of Spieth, denying the youngster additional major hardware.
It'd be unwise to count Day out because of his current back problem, but there's at least cause for concern there.
The emotional PGA triumph vaulted Day to third in the world rankings and second in the FedEx Cup, so he'll certainly make it to Atlanta for the Tour Championship. Whether he's able to remain in the top five and have a real shot at the $10 million bonus is another matter.
Rory McIlroy
Although he's sitting at home this week, didn't successfully defend the Wanamaker Trophy at the PGA Championship and lost his No. 1 world ranking to Spieth, McIlroy's stock is up at the moment.
Because of various factors in the way the Official World Golf Ranking works, if Spieth doesn't finish 14th or better, he'll surrender the top spot back to McIlroy, per GolfChannel.com's Rex Hoggard. Based on where Spieth stands now, there's a fair chance that will happen.
McIlroy was unable to guard the Claret Jug at St. Andrews, where he led the 2010 Open Championship with an opening round of 63 and finished tied for third. He was a bit rusty coming off the ankle injury at Whistling Straits yet managed to place a respectable 17th.
One had to admire McIlroy's class afterward under the circumstances, as he was well outside of contention:
Despite playing only nine tournaments all season long on the PGA Tour, McIlroy has picked up two victories and four other top-10 finishes in huge events, including fourth at The Masters. It's been a quieter 2014-15 campaign overshadowed by Spieth claiming the green jacket and U.S. Open trophy.
After having a realistic shot to win the FedEx Cup in both 2012 and 2014, what better way for McIlroy to steal the show than to come back strong at the Deutsche Bank Championship? He acquitted himself well in the last major and will be fresher than any of the other competitors.
While Spieth searches for his game and deals with the new pressure of rising to first in the world and Day deals with back issues, the forecast for McIlroy suddenly looks quite favorable. He's ninth in FedEx Cup points at present, won the Deutsche Bank Championship in 2012 and finished tied for fifth there last year.
For all the hype that's surrounded Spieth, the postseason could be the time where McIlroy steals the show and reclaims world No. 1 status with authority.
Note: Stats courtesy of PGATour.com unless otherwise indicated.
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