Fantasy Football 2015: RB Rankings, Sleepers and Risks to Avoid

The goal coming out of your fantasy drafts is to hit on one productive running back you can trust to be in your lineup each and every week. That might sound like a pretty weak goal, but in the current era of fantasy football, there’s a good chance you’ll be working hard on the waiver wire for the majority of the season to improve your RB corps.

Players like Justin Forsett and C.J. Anderson carried fantasy teams to championships last year and, for the most part, went undrafted. You’ll overlook some diamonds in the rough during your draft and find them playing major roles at some point down the line, leading to waiver-wire bidding wars. 

The running back position has become tougher than ever to trust, which is why I’ve advised against building your team around RBs, instead focusing on the big-name wide receivers early in your drafts. I’m well aware that players like Jamaal Charles, Marshawn Lynch and Matt Forte have had longevity at the top, but those are the exceptions to the rule.

In the latest installment of my position breakdowns, I’ll give you my philosophy on running backs, as well as some names to watch and others to avoid. When it’s all said and done, you may look at drafting running backs in a whole different way.

RB Rankings: Choose Your Own Adventure

Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images

Eddie Lacy leads the way in my running back rankings, but I’m well aware he’s not at the top of every board. In fact, it’s been hard to find a consensus No. 1 fantasy RB, which is why this position comes down to personal preference. And there’s nothing wrong with that.

In terms of full disclosure, Le’Veon Bell would have been my top-ranked RB if his suspension was knocked down to a single game or erased completed, but they stuck him with two games, so Lacy gets the nod. What I see in both players is someone who can threaten for 100 total yards each week. With so many splintered backfields, 100 total yards, not 100 rushing yards, is the benchmark for an RB1.

What that means is that you should be looking for RBs who can be trusted to contribute as a receiver. I’m not expecting all the RB1s to be as busy as Matt Forte in the passing game, but you have to be reliable enough to stay on the field on passing downs. It may not be a major part of their respective games, but I trust Lacy, Marshawn Lynch and Jeremy Hill to make some plays as a receiver. 

I gave Lacy the nod because he has the fewest warts of the candidates to take the top spot. He’s an important part of a great offense that may need to lean on him more with Jordy Nelson lost for the season. In his first two seasons, he’s bounced back from early concussions to finish as an RB1, and he’s done it differently each year.

As a rookie, Lacy was tasked with carrying the Green Bay Packers offense for a good portion of the season while Aaron Rodgers was out with a broken collarbone. That year, he had at least 20 carries in 10 games, racking up four games of 110-plus rushing yards, including six games with 100-plus total yards.

Last year, Lacy saw his carries drop from 284 in 15 games to 246 in 16 games, but the big difference was his role in the passing game. He went from 35 receptions and 257 yards without a receiving touchdown on 44 targets in 2013 to 42 receptions for 427 yards and four receiving touchdowns on 55 targets in 2014. He also had just three games with 20-plus carries.

If he can avoid getting dinged up in 2015, it’s fair to expect an improvement in his numbers, which is why he can finish the season as the league’s top fantasy back.

2015 Preseason Rankings

Matt Camp PPR RB Rankings

StandardPPR

Published on August 25th   Export

Rank	Player (team/bye)	ECR™	ADP
1	Eddie Lacy (GB/7)	4	4
2	Le'Veon Bell (PIT/11)	1	1
3	Jamaal Charles (KC/9)	3	3
4	Jeremy Hill (CIN/7)	10	9
5	C.J. Anderson (DEN/7)	6	6
6	DeMarco Murray (PHI/8)	9	8
7	Adrian Peterson (MIN/5)	2	2
8	Marshawn Lynch (SEA/9)	7	5
9	Justin Forsett (BAL/9)	8	11
10	Matt Forte (CHI/7)	5	7
11	Frank Gore (IND/10)	13	13
12	Mark Ingram (NO/11)	16	15
13	Lamar Miller (MIA/5)	12	12
14	LeSean McCoy (BUF/8)	11	10
15	Joseph Randle (DAL/6)	22	20
16	Jonathan Stewart (CAR/5)	19	23
17	Andre Ellington (ARI/9)	14	18
18	Todd Gurley (STL/6)	26	21
19	Ameer Abdullah (DET/9)	21	22
20	Giovani Bernard (CIN/7)	25	27
21	Alfred Morris (WAS/8)	18	17
22	Carlos Hyde (SF/10)	24	19
23	Melvin Gordon (SD/10)	17	14
24	T.J. Yeldon (JAC/8)	23	26
25	Shane Vereen (NYG/11)	29	33
26	Arian Foster (HOU/9)	35	25
27	Rashad Jennings (NYG/11)	31	30
28	Latavius Murray (OAK/6)	20	16
29	Ryan Mathews (PHI/8)	42	38
30	Doug Martin (TB/6)	30	28
31	C.J. Spiller (NO/11)	15	24
32	Duke Johnson (CLE/11)	39	40
33	Joique Bell (DET/9)	32	29
34	Devonta Freeman (ATL/10)	33	37
35	Christopher Ivory (NYJ/5)	28	31
36	Isaiah Crowell (CLE/11)	37	36
37	Danny Woodhead (SD/10)	36	42
38	Tre Mason (STL/6)	41	35
39	David Johnson (ARI/9)	48	47
40	Alfred Blue (HOU/9)	47	41
41	Chris Polk (HOU/9)	67	75
42	David Cobb (TEN/4)	46	44
43	LeGarrette Blount (NE/4)	27	34
44	Jonas Gray (NE/4)	59	55
45	Roy Helu (OAK/6)	45	53
46	Charles Sims (TB/6)	43	45
47	Andre Williams (NYG/11)	55	50
48	Tevin Coleman (ATL/10)	34	32
49	Darren Sproles (PHI/8)	44	48
50	Reggie Bush (SF/10)	38	46
51	Matt Jones (WAS/8)	52	57
52	DeAngelo Williams (PIT/11)	63	52
53	Knile Davis (KC/9)	51	49
54	Bishop Sankey (TEN/4)	40	39
55	Jay Ajayi (MIA/5)	62	51
56	Jerick McKinnon (MIN/5)	60	59
57	Montee Ball (DEN/7)	57	58
58	James Starks (GB/7)	79	71
59	Fred Jackson (BUF/8)	50	61
60	Darren McFadden (DAL/6)	49	43
61	Theo Riddick (DET/9)	68	62
62	Daniel Herron (IND/10)	65	65
63	Branden Oliver (SD/10)	78	69
64	James White (NE/4)	54	60
65	Travaris Cadet (NE/4)	89	92
66	Cameron Artis-Payne (CAR/5)	70	63
67	Terrance West (CLE/11)	66	74
68	Bilal Powell (NYJ/5)	74	96
69	Denard Robinson (JAC/8)	64	54
70	Robert Turbin (SEA/9)	96	80
71	Lorenzo Taliaferro (BAL/9)	75	82
72	Javorius Allen (BAL/9)	56	64
73	Matt Asiata (MIN/5)	95	81
74	Khiry Robinson (NO/11)	58	66
75	Ronnie Hillman (DEN/7)	61	56
76	Dri Archer (PIT/11)	105	95
77	Josh Robinson (IND/10)	92	85
78	Zac Stacy (NYJ/5)	93	94
79	Stevan Ridley (NYJ/5)	69	77
80	Marcel Reece (OAK/6)	81
81	Jacquizz Rodgers (CHI/7)	94	86
82	Toby Gerhart (JAC/8)	88	91
83	Christine Michael (SEA/9)	91	78
84	Antone Smith (ATL/10)	76
85	Jeremy Langford (CHI/7)	85	67
86	Donald Brown (SD/10)	114
87	Ka'Deem Carey (CHI/7)	99	99
88	Damien Williams (MIA/5)	80	97
89	Trent Richardson (OAK/6)	73	68

2015 Fantasy Football Rankings powered by FantasyPros.

Riser: Justin Forsett Is Marc Trestman's Newest Toy

Jonathan Bachman/Associated Press

I’m calling Justin Forsett a riser because his stock has shot up more than any other running back from this time last year, when he was third on the Baltimore Ravens depth chart entering the season. 

The Ravens have a new offensive coordinator in Marc Trestman, and while he didn’t fare too well as a head coach in Chicago, he was one of the most fantasy-friendly offensive minds in the league—and that meant big production for Matt Forte. He had his highest reception totals over two seasons with Trestman, posting 74 in 2013 and 102 last year. He also racked up 225 targets during that time.

If you’re pointing out Forsett’s age (he turns 30 in October) and lengthy career (entering his eighth season), you’re generalizing issues that might plague most running backs.

Forsett is not most running backs.

The Ravens are Forsett’s fifth team, and only the second he’ll spend more than a year with after stops in Indianapolis, Seattle, Houston and Jacksonville. He had just two seasons with at least 100 carries and was never the feature back for the majority of any season before last year. This makes him a very unique study, as you’ll be hard-pressed to find any RB put up career-best numbers in the seventh year of a journeyman career.

Baltimore has young, mostly unproven backs behind Forsett in Lorenzo Taliaferro and Javorius Allen, in addition to an inexperienced receiving corps outside of Steve Smith. This makes Forsett the most important asset in the offense, and one whom Trestman should feature quite often in 2015. With an ADP of 22.5 as the 11th RB off the board, Forsett is a good target if you open your draft with a wide receiver.

Faller: Curb Your Enthusiasm for Melvin Gordon

Lenny Ignelzi/Associated Press

You may be wondering how a rookie can be in the faller group without taking a snap. What I’m trying to do is kill the hype of the No. 15 overall pick in this year’s draft, especially since he has an ADP around 32 and is being taken as the 14th fantasy running back overall.

As mentioned on the previous slide, if you’re taking an RB early, they have to have some kind of role in the passing game and be a threat to rack up 100 total yards each week. My fear is that Gordon doesn’t fit either of those criteria. 

I’ve detailed Gordon’s issues in pass protection multiple times this month, and while that tends to be a problem for most rookie RBs, it’s a concern that keeps them off the field—and that can’t be if you’re considering Gordon to be a top-15 fantasy back. Add in the presence of Danny Woodhead as a strong pass-catcher and pass-protector, and you have more reasons to keep Gordon off the field on third down.

If those issues are to be corrected, Gordon needs all the practice he can get, and that hasn’t happened because of an ankle injury that kept him out of the second preseason game. Luckily, he’s supposed to get ample carries in the third game, per Michael Gehlken of the San Diego Union-Tribune.

I’m not out to bury Gordon’s rookie season before it even begins, because I do believe he’ll do a fine job this year, but the hype has pushed him too far up draft boards. I’d much rather have him as an RB2 on a team that has three strong cornerstone players around him, which is why I’m not considering him until at least the fourth round—and possibly later in PPR formats.

Riser: Don't Hold Grudges Against Ryan Mathews

Derik Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

Am I about to write positively about the fantasy value of Ryan Mathews in 2015? Yes I am. I’d say continue at your own risk, but based on Mathews’ ADP of 99.5 (40th RB), there’s not much risk involved, which is a big reason why I’m giving him serious consideration this year. 

We all know Mathews failed to live up to expectations in San Diego and the team showed no interest in bringing him back, but he was always in the plans for the Philadelphia Eagles, whether they were able to sign Frank Gore or ultimately end up with DeMarco Murray.

Injuries have plagued Mathews over his five-year career, as he’s played 16 games just one time and is coming off a season that saw him miss 10 games. In all of those years, he was expected to be the lead back, and for the most part, it didn’t work out, at least for fantasy purposes. 

That won’t be the case in Philadelphia, at least not every week. The Eagles had the seventh-most rushing plays and more total plays than any team last season, per NFL.com. Over the last two years, LeSean McCoy carried the ball 626 times because the Eagles couldn’t trust anyone to handle a significant role in their rushing attack. Between Murray and Mathews, the Eagles have two players who’ve been primary RBs for multiple seasons. 

Murray might be getting all the love as an RB1, but Mathews will be more than just a handcuff. Because head coach Chip Kelly is all about volume, don’t be surprised to see the Eagles cut down on the substitutions in favor of getting more plays in. That means if Mathews is in the game, he may not come out for an entire drive. That could lead to a busier and more productive season than many are expecting.

Considering his low ADP and little risk involved in taking him, Mathews is one of my favorite targets no matter what the format, as I’ll do anything I can to get a piece of Kelly’s fantasy-friendly offense.

Faller: Alfred Morris Deserves Better

Jeff Haynes/Associated Press

Sometimes, you have to draw the line between fantasy and reality. What I mean is that some players are better for fantasy than in reality and vice versa. In the case of Alfred Morris, the latter is unfortunately true.

Morris might be one of the best pure running backs in the league. He’s powerful and moves quite well for a bigger back, which has allowed him to rush for 1,000-plus yards in each of his first three seasons, although those numbers have dipped each year.

The two biggest factors working against Morris are an almost complete absence from the passing game (37 career receptions) and being part of a Washington Redskins offense that can’t seem to figure out what to do at quarterback. 

Part of Morris’ drop in carries has to do with the team’s struggles on defense and its inability to rely on Morris when playing from behind. However, when you run the 22nd-most plays, per NFL.com, there’s not a lot of margin for error, and without a role in the passing game, that margin shrinks even more.

I’ve already detailed my concerns with having any Redskins on fantasy rosters this year, but it got even worse for Morris with the addition of rookie RB Matt Jones, as he could easily steal touches in short-yardage and goal-line situations.

Morris hasn’t finished higher than 18th among fantasy RBs in the last two seasons, yet his ADP of 37.3 makes him the 16th running back off the board. The situation in Washington hasn’t gotten any better, so hoping for Morris to return to dominance seems pretty foolish.

Sleepers: Always Be Thinking Ahead

Norm Hall/Getty Images

You can do all the homework you want in the days leading up to your draft, but when it comes to the running back position, the waiver wire will still produce gems who went undrafted.

The key to finding those sleepers before anyone else is to think long-term and have one eye looking ahead. Fantasy production in September from one of your starting RBs may be gone by November thanks to injuries or changes in roles. Weighing both injury concerns and talent can help you nail some of those deep sleepers before they end up as hot commodities on the waiver wire:

• Ameer Abdullah (ADP 48)—The hype on Abdullah can’t be ignored, so it’s tough to call him a sleeper. However, some might be scared off by head coach Jim Caldwell saying he still expects Joique Bell to be the bell cow. The window is still open for the Detroit Lions and that means they need their best players on the field. Abdullah is the best back they have, and he's the best bet to finish as their top fantasy back.
• Shane Vereen (ADP 76)—Vereen has escaped the Belitricks of New England to join a New York Giants backfield that looks crowded. I’m fully expecting Vereen to be their primary pass-catcher, but that won’t preclude him from seeing time on more than just third down. Rashad Jennings and Andre Williams could end up splitting touches, meaning Vereen could end up with the most consistent role in the offense. He’s a great fit for their West Coast scheme and will be active in the short and intermediate areas as one of the best route-runners at the RB position.
• David Johnson (ADP 124.5)—I refuse to be fazed by the signing of Chris Johnson and would rather bet on young talent that have more of their career ahead of them then behind them. Johnson is a similar player to Andre Ellington, but he’s a bigger back and could be a better fit to lead a backfield.
• Duke Johnson (ADP 97.5)—Any investment in the Cleveland Browns will be a risky one, so this isn’t a strong endorsement for Johnson. However, we’ve seen both Isaiah Crowell and Terrance West fail to lock down the starting job, even while Johnson missed time with a hamstring injury. The door remains wide open for the third-round pick, and with the hamstring problem now behind him, he’ll have every opportunity to win the starting job for a team with a strong offensive line that needs to run the football.

Risks: Stay Away from Those Low Ceilings

Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

When determining running backs to steer clear of, I tend to look at veterans coming off bad seasons, players on teams with bad defenses and additions to the backfield that could splinter the touches. Offensive lines are also important to consider if a player has trouble creating yards on his own.

The following group includes players that are too risky. There are some talented players on this list, but high ADPs inflate the risk, and that’s not worth taking on at such a volatile position:

• LeSean McCoy (ADP 19.8)—Of the 23 RBs who saw at least 50 percent of their team's snaps last year, McCoy was ranked 22nd by Pro Football Focus. Buffalo will likely run it a lot, but McCoy won’t have nearly the same offensive line to help him out, and the extent to which he danced around last year is concerning. He's also compiled 626 carries over the last two seasons, so wear and tear is a concern.
• Carlos Hyde (ADP 41.3)—Not only do I have questions about Hyde being able to replace the great Frank Gore, but I think he’s doing so in a year with the San Francisco 49ers defense taking a step back. If the defense struggles, they could be playing from behind more often. Hyde may also lose touches to Reggie Bush in the passing game. He’s getting too much love as an RB2.
• Devonta Freeman/Tevin Coleman (ADP 93/76)—The Atlanta Falcons are another team with a lot to prove on defense, and it's debatable whether they’ll be able to run it on a consistent basis with a rebuilding offensive line. Considering that both Freeman and Coleman have been hurt this preseason and don’t have much experience between the two of them in a brand-new offense, it's difficult to have a lot of faith in either as reliable fantasy options, especially with Coleman’s ridiculously high ADP.
• LeGarrette Blount and the Patriots backfield (ADP 77)—Am I really supposed to trust Bill Belichick to stick with a lead back for the majority of the season? I’m not buying the Blount love. The team didn’t think enough of Blount to re-sign him after he carried the offense down the stretch in 2013, and he only found his way back into a prominent role in New England because he talked his way out of Pittsburgh and Jonas Gray doesn’t know how to set an alarm. Pass.

All rankings, ADP information and statistics are from FantasyPros.com unless otherwise noted.