8 Bold Predictions for the FedEx Cup Playoffs
As great as it was to see Tiger Woods near the top of a leader board for an entire tournament last weekend, he failed to make the FedEx Cup Playoffs. Despite his absence there is, indeed, lots worth talking about for this renewal.
And with the Barclays holding honors in this foursome of tournaments, it’s worth noting, according to John Swantek of PGATour.com, that, “For the third time in nine years, the FedExCup champ comes from out of the top 5 at East Lake.”
The Barclays is nice to win, but not entirely necessary.
Swantek likes Rory McIlroy, but will missing a significant chunk of playing time this summer with a freak ankle injury hurt his chances? Will skipping the Barclays altogether stall his game? Losing his grip of the World No. 1 ranking will make “fight” his unofficial 15th golf club.
There’s a lot to unpack, so let’s get on it. Read on for eight bold predictions heading into the ninth FedEx Cup Playoffs.
Davis Love III Will Reach the Second Round
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I originally titled this slide “Davis Love III Will Reach the Tour Championship,” but I couldn't say it with a straight face. Love reaching Atlanta is about as likely as a beach day on Mount Everest, even after winning the Wyndham Championship at age 51.
How did he contend, let alone win, the Wyndham? In 2015, DL3 has only four rounds under par on the PGA Tour and hadn’t finished better than a tie for 44th until he won a tournament.
“If you don't play enough, you’re rusty, short game shows,” Love said in Hank Gola’s New York Daily News story. “So now that I've played a nice stretch and worked on my game, the short game has come around. I just feel like I could compete out here just as well as I could out there.”
Stick this in lower lip for a second: Love’s average drives travel 294.7 yards, good for 56th on tour. His driving accuracy percentage is 64.86 (55th), and his greens in regulation percentage is 68.15 (57th)—not bad for 51.
With numbers like that, reaching the second round of the playoffs may not be as bold as it is likely.
An 'Obscure' Golfer Will Make a Run
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Define “obscure,” right?
Let’s look at 2014 for some obscure parameters. Hunter Mahan won the Barclays. He’s borderline. He’s a winner of six tournaments in his career, so he’s a fringe of obscurity.
Chris Kirk, winner of the Deutsche Bank Championship, is really obscure. Billy Horschel, winner of the BMW Championship, the Tour Championship and, subsequently the FedEx Cup Playoffs, was about as obscure as it got.
Horschel missed the cut at the Barclays, then finished in a tie for second at the Deutsche Bank, then went back-to-back to glory.
So who will this year’s obscure golfer be? Maybe it will be Kevin Kisner and his three 2015 runners-up or Charley Hoffman, a player who was in one of the final pairings at Augusta National Golf Club for the Masters, or maybe even Brooks Koepka, who, like Mahan, is on the outskirts of Obscureville.
A 2015 Major Champion Will NOT Win the FedEx Cup
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In the eight previous FedEx Cup Playoffs, won by seven different golfers1, none of them had won a major tournament in the year he won the FedEx Cup Playoffs.
Is there a reason for this? Perhaps the grind of winning majors took its toll on the major winners of those years. It's hard to say, but looking at a list of all 22 winners of the 32 tournaments in the history of the FedEx Cup Playoffs, only eight players have won majors.
A major winner has won a tournament in each renewal of the playoffs every year except 2014.
That could be any golfer except Jordan Spieth, Zach Johnson or Jason Day this year. The toll the majors took on these players—especially Spieth and Day—will make the FedEx Cup a near impossibility given the grind they went on from April to August.
1: Tigers Woods, Vijay Singh, Tiger Woods, Jim Furyk, Bill Haas, Brandt Snedeker, Henrik Stenson, Billy Horschel
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A Major Champion Won't Win the FedEx Cup at All
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So we established that the 2015 major winners—Johnson, Spieth, Day—won’t win the FedEx Cup. In the eight previous FedEx Cup Playoffs, only three major champions won the cup with Furyk being the last to do it in 2010.
This prediction eliminates some very live past major winners like Rory McIlroy, Justin Rose and Martin Kaymer, but the FedEx Cup Playoffs have rewarded, of late, the hot hand. Predicting that hot hand has grown increasingly impossible.
Last year it was Billy Horschel. In 2013, that honor went to Henrik Stenson. In 2012 it was McIlroy, but he still lost to Snedeker despite winning two of the tournaments.
So many players in the top 10 of the FedEx Cup standings have the potential to win. There’s Jimmy Walker, Patrick Reed, Danny Lee, Robert Streb and Dustin Johnson. There is not a major among them, but maybe there's a FedEx Cup.
Phil Mickelson Will Fail to Reach the Tour Championship for Second Straight Year
5 of 8When Phil Mickelson heads to the tee at 7:53 a.m. on Thursday, he will be just a few miles from Baltusrol, the site of his PGA Championship win from 10 years ago. His hope is that returning to New Jersey will inspire images of his prime.
"It's a chance to make up for the fact that I didn't win a major championship, which is really how you look at the year," he said Steve Politi’s NJ.com story. "This event, as well as the playoffs themselves, really give you a chance to make up what you might have lacked throughout the year."
Mickelson always manages to turn it up for the majors, finishing in a tie for 20th at the Open Championship and a tied-for-18th performance at the PGA.
Mickelson will have to do a whole lot to be remotely competitive. His lone runner-up performance of 2015 came at the Masters and since then he has two top 10s.
But a year ago, he finished in solo 78th at the Barclays, tied for 45th at the Deutsche Bank and withdrew from the BMW.
It’ll be a second-straight year without a trip to Atlanta for Lefty.
Bubba Watson Will Be the American to Beat
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All the money will be on Jordan Spieth to win the FedEx Cup, but the smart money should be bet on Bubba Watson’s nose. He’s third in the standings with 2,407 points and has had one of the quietly great seasons on the tour in 2015.
From 15 events, he has two wins, three seconds, one third and a total of seven top 10s. His solo seconds came in the WGC Bridgestone Invitational and the RBC Canadian Open.
What’s disconcerting for Watson is his performance in the majors. The Masters, a tournament he won twice, saw him finish in a tie for 38th. He got cut at Chambers Bay, cut at St. Andrews and a tie for 21st at Whistling Straits.
Watson made a strong run through the FedEx Cup Playoffs in 2014 with a solo second in the BMW Championship and a solo 14th at the Tour Championship.
With all of the attention on Spieth, Watson will sneak up and be the American to beat in Atlanta.
Jordan Speith Will Come Up Short in Atlanta
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If Jordan Spieth wanted, he could skip each of the first three legs of the FedEx Cup playoffs and head right to Atlanta for the Tour Championship. With a near-2,000 point lead in the FedEx Cup standings over Jason Day, there’s little reason for him to burn the midnight oil.
That lead will vanish heading into East Lake, gone, leveling the playing field for the final 30 golfers. That's no fault of his own. That's the rules, baby.
“It's a little odd that it just completely resets, because if you want it to be the true champion of the year, it wouldn't necessarily reset for the final, even if you do make it worth more points throughout the playoffs,” said Spieth in Kyle Porter’s CBSSports.com story.
As a result, McIlroy won’t head to the Barclays and neither will Sergio Garcia.
There’s the matter of playing in these events for the sponsors and the fans, but beyond that, what’s the incentive for players in the top 10 of the FedEx Cup standings? They’re assured a spot in Atlanta, so why risk the mental and physical strain after a long season fraught with majors and WGCs?
So, yes, Spieth will make it to Atlanta on cruise control, but will the year he had ascending to No. 1 in the world, winning two majors and finishing in a tie for fourth at St. Andrews and a solo second at Whistling Straits, catch up with him?
That could be far too much for even his Herculean mental fortitude to overcome.
And the Winner Is...
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It could be anyone in the top 20 in the world, maybe even lower, but we’ve already established that a non-winner of a major championship will win this year’s FedEx Cup. That man is Sergio Garcia, famous for his non-winning of majors.
While the world paid much of its attention to Spieth, McIlory, Day and even Dustin Johnson in 2015, Garcia has strung together very competitive tournaments.
He lost in a playoff at the Players, took a tie for 18th at the U.S. Open, a tie for sixth at the Open Championship and a tie for 17th at the Masters.
The FedEx Cup can be won by streaky players, and Garcia could, in theory, go on that kind of a streak. It won’t be at the Barclays, however. Along with McIlroy, Garcia won’t make the trip to New Jersey to kick-start the playoffs.
Once he gets going at the Deutsche Bank, he’ll put himself in a confident position to contend in Denver and then Atlanta.
His putting has failed him of late, but his 1.245 strokes gained tee to green and 1.177 strokes gained total put him right in the wheelhouse for tourney contenders.
He’s a long shot for sure, but who would have thought Snedeker or Haas could have won the Tour Championship when they did? Garcia took a tie for ninth in Atlanta last year. Building on that will add $10 million to his coffers.
All stats came via PGATour.com.
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