Franklin vs. Belfort: The Phenom Returns

It was in 1998 when my interest and love for mixed martial arts started to reach fanatical levels. I was a 25-year-old arrogant young man and the intrigue, talk, hype, and build-up of fighting matchups were right in my wheelhouse of preferred entertainment.

I had already been mesmerized by the ground brilliance of Royce, the scowl and brawn of Shamrock, the smothering mauling Beast, and the brutality of Tank. I could not wait for the next big event, and the next big thing, and from what I was hearing, the next big thing was “The Phenom”, a Brazilian named Belfort.

Vitor Belfort was about to take on Wanderlei Silva, another up and coming talent from Brazil, and I could not wait to see the fight.

I’m glad I did not blink when settling in to watch that fight because The Phenom came and went in a 44-second piston blitz of straight punches right up the nostrils of Silva and the rest is MMA history. I believe the history is widely known with Belfort, that he left the UFC back in 2005 after a split decision loss to Tito Ortiz.

He has fought in top organizations all over the world in the past few years, and he returns to the UFC this Saturday night in a beautiful match up with veteran UFC star and fan favourite Rich Franklin. Here is my crystal ball of how this fight will shake down;

The Start

Obviously when the bell rings the fight starts out standing up, and the start of fights and standing up are both areas where Vitor excels. Belfort often comes out in a flurry and tries to overwhelm with blinding hand speed, that is why his record is filled with first round TKO’s. Franklin must be ready for that and not take his usual approach of warming up, finding his range and getting better as the fight goes along.

Franklin must be ready to defend or attack right off the hop or he will be in trouble and Vitor will catch him. My prediction is that Franklin will have trouble with Vitor’s hand speed, and will get hit more often early, but will not be hurt and will whether the storm.

Near the end of the first round, Franklin will start to close the distance and find range with his looping, punishing shots and Belfort will realize he is in for a long fight.

The Middle

Vitor Belfort is a tremendously skilled and dynamic fighter. He has lightning quick hands and is a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu, but there is more to being an elite fighter than simply skill set, and here is where my opinion of Vitor turns. As his fights go deeper and deeper, Belfort’s will to fight weakens.

Franklin, on the other hand, thrives. Franklin will start to impose his workman like game on Belfort, and mid to late in the round, Vitor will tire of getting hit. I believe that the fight will slowly but visibly shift in Franklin’s favour and as the final minute of round two closes, you will see Vitor look to take it to the ground.

Much like his striking, Belfort’s ground game is explosive and flashy, more so than Franklin’s, but I don’t think he will be able to submit Ace.

The End

If this fight gets to the third round, the key will be where that round is played. If it ends up on the ground in a jiu-jitsu display, Belfort has a chance because he will not be getting hit as much. Every landed blow saps him of his will, so if he can get it into a ground transition game, he may be able to dazzle enough for a decision.

The problem is, Franklin knows this and will either try to keep the fight standing, or if taken down, he will look to ground and pound to a decision.

Belfort’s game is flash and dash, and he is a fan favourite because of that. His fights are explosive, often ending quickly. In my opinion, this is his only chance to win.

Franklin’s game is blue collar, tough and workmanlike. He trains to be in it for the long haul and to break the will of the opponent, and this is his blueprint to victory.

I like Franklin’s blueprint. It is going the distance, and Ace will spoil the return of The Phenom.