Will Novak Djokovic Recapture His Dominance at the 2015 US Open?

Novak Djokovic is a tennis paradox. To illustrate what this means, the 2015 U.S. Open will be yet another example of his thorough dominance or inescapable failure. He’s indestructible but vulnerable, which is a little bizarre considering that he is one of the top five players of the Open era at the absolute peak of his career.

There’s little to add about the way Djokovic has mostly crushed the ATP tour in the past year at majors and Masters 1000 tournaments. However, perfection is always elusive, as evidenced by the collective gasp of losing back-to-back finals at Canada and Cincinnati.

Djokovic’s the No. 1 player in the ATP rankings by nearly 6,000 points over Roger Federer, an astonishing chasm. Swiss stars Federer and No. 5 Stan Wawrinka totalled together do not have enough points to catch Djokovic.

So why do doubts simmer beneath the surface of Djokovic’s almighty empire like troublesome warning bubbles?

How likely is it that Djokovic can flip the rejuvenation switch and roll to his (long overdue?) second U.S. Open title?

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The Price for Conquests

It’s easy to point out that Djokovic played nine matches (five singles and four doubles) at the Canada Open, thereby grinding him down for five tougher matches in Cincinnati. (Sidenote: Maybe Djokovic’s 6-4, 6-1 thrashing over Stan Wawrinka was “easy,” but don’t underestimate the mental anticipation and energy to get up for this match.)

It’s a fair point that Djokovic was fatigued against Andy Murray for the Rogers Cup and dragging against Federer’s energetic display as the King of Cincinnati for a seventh time. That’s tennis, where conditions are never equal and where there are always caveats if we turn enough stones.

The bigger question is if he will be physically fit for the U.S. Open. How much energy will be in the tank when he needs to call on all of his reserve deep in the second week?

The Guardian reviewed a few of his nagging ailments in the past weeks, including concern about his elbow and poor serving against Murray in Montreal. It added that Djokovic also took painkillers to relieve a stomach strain that was believed to affect his serving in Cincinnati’s semifinal match against Alexandr Dolgopolov.

Djokovic is human after all, even if he has cyborg ruthlessness in his veins.

His greatest year of 2011 is reminder of just how fragile that separation is between total dominance and vulnerability. Then, Djokovic won three majors but fell off his torrid pace a bit in the fall before summoning up one more epic push to win his marathon match in the 2012 Australian Open final against Rafael Nadal.

For the rest of 2012, Djokovic was not quite the same, often very good but unable to win another major. How much of a physical and mental toll did he suffer?

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Peaks and Valleys

The good news for Djokovic is that he has repeatedly come back with his best form as soon as the blogs and tweets fire off their concerns or criticisms. His latest impressive example was defending his Wimbledon crown a few weeks after a disappointing defeat to Wawrinka in the French Open final. Down yes, but never out, and always ready to roll for another championship.

Maybe this pattern seems a little familiar after watching the more original and sensational model that Nadal often turned in with one major comeback after another. Djokovic has not had similar injury woes, but it’s rather a series of unstoppable brilliance followed by bursts of fatigue or tired play. Then he comes back with a sense of motivated vengeance.

Will he be ready to storm through the first week at the U.S. Open, and will he be at his best for his biggest rivals by the final weekend for New York? This major title is his most important remaining opportunity to cement one of the greatest years in tennis history.

It’s also a chance for him to atone somewhat for the French Open, which has haunted his legacy. Winning the U.S. Open would take away the late-summer pressure that has more quietly assaulted him the past few summers.

All of the recaps and analysis following Canada and Cincinnati may not be the ringing endorsement Djokovic needs to be a sure thing in New York, but maybe that’s what he needed most. There’s no chance that he underestimates his task in the next couple of weeks.

Tasting a couple of bitter defeats at Masters 1000 tournaments might have emboldened Murray and Federer, but it could also drive Djokovic to reach back for another one of his great streaks.

If Canada and Cincinnati were nothing more than an overtaxing lesson and we see the dominant version of Djokovic, then we will be writing another conquest story for him soon enough.