Daily Fantasy Football 2015: Predicting Top DraftKings RB Projections

The top tier is tightly packed, but there is clearly a hierarchy emerging while predicting the top DraftKings running back projections. Le'Veon Bell (n/a) will rebound after a two-game ban, Eddie Lacy ($7,500) will help fill Jordy Nelson's considerable void and Jamaal Charles ($7,900) will continue to shine in an otherwise forgettable offense.

Running backs don't carry as much fantasy weight at DraftKings as wide receivers, because one point is awarded per reception (PPR). Understanding this and other scoring nuances is critical to succeed at daily fantasy from week to week.

DraftKings offensive scoring outline:

• Passing TD = 4PTs
• 25 passing yards = 1PT (0.04PT per yard is awarded)
• 300-plus-yard passing game = 3PTs
• Interception = -1PT
• 10 rushing yards = 1PT (0.1PT per yard is awarded)
• Rushing TD = 6PTs
• 100-plus-yard rushing game = 3PTs
• 10 receiving yards = 1PT (0.1PT per yard is awarded)
• Reception = 1PT
• Receiving TD = 6PTs
• 100-plus-yard receiving game = 3PTs
• Punt/kickoff return for TD = 6PTs
• Fumble lost = -1PT
• Two-point conversion (pass, run or catch) = 2PTs
• Offensive fumble recovery TD = 6PTs

The following list separates the cream from the rest of the running back crop for the 2015 fantasy football season.

Honorable Mentions

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History is against Murray improving upon 2014's fantasy output this season.

Matt Forte, Chicago Bears

Trading head coach Marc Trestman for offensive coordinator Adam Gase could detract from Forte's ($7,800) valuable pass-catching production, according to Evan Silva of Rotoworld.

He's a reliable RB1 but won't threaten the top five without the elevated receiving numbers.

LeSean McCoy, Buffalo Bills

McCoy's ($7,200) prospects are the most controversial, according to the running back rankings of 2014's top 20 prognosticators on FantasyPros. His standard deviation of 4.6 is second-highest in the top 25 after Ameer Abdullah ($4,000) at 4.7.

Analysts spread his outlook from No. 1 to No. 24 in 2015, which means nobody has any idea what Shady will do with a new team, head coach and offensive coordinator all coming together for the first time (McCoy played for the Philadelphia Eagles, Rex Ryan coached the New York Jets and Greg Roman coordinated the San Francisco 49ers offense in 2014).

Low-end RB1 returns are a reasonable expectation.

DeMarco Murray, Philadelphia Eagles

Murray's ($6,700) 2015 outlook is shrouded in mystery, which is probably how head coach Chip Kelly wants it.

We do know Philadelphia paid last year's top rusher $40 million over five years to join the Eagles, compared to the three-year, $11 million deal paid to Ryan Mathews ($3,600). We also know Philadelphia faces a string of relatively soft defenses early to mid-season, based on charting by numberFire's Aaron Watson.

CBS Sports' Jamey Eisenberg showed that only five of the last 26 running backs to reach 400 or more combined touches in a season increased their fantasy performance the following year—Murray had 497 touches in 2014, including the playoffs.

If you're going to ride Murray, ride him early.

5. Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings

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Peterson returns from suspension with new, pressure-relieving weapons around him.

Adrian Peterson ($7,700) returns after missing all but one game last year due to his child-abuse scandal. His last full season (2013) was a disappointing 14-game hangover from his electric 2,079-yard rushing affair in 2012.

But All Day still managed an RB1 body of work, ranking eighth in standard fantasy scoring among running backs.

The narrative heading into 2014 was that new offensive coordinator Norv Turner would add a dimension to the All-Pro's already-freakish rushing ability by incorporating him more into the passing game. The 30-year-old told the Star Tribune he's still looking forward to the opportunity in 2015.

"With Coach Turner's offense, there's so much that he throws out there. So I'll be more involved in the pass game, being out wide and presenting myself for a check-down."

Peterson's age is a concern, since workhorse running backs tend to deteriorate swiftly after 30. Dan Hanzus of NFL.com reported Peterson felt rusty after almost a full year away from football, but daily fantasy owners shouldn't read too much into these quotes.

The eight-year veteran showed improbable physical resilience in 2012 after recovering from a torn ACL late in 2011. Peterson should be expected to be fully game-ready by Week 1.

The biggest blow to Peterson's rebound campaign so far is losing right tackle Phil Loadholt to a torn Achilles. Pro Football Focus ranked him the third-best run-blocker on the 21st-rated O-line in 2014.

The offense will have to adjust, but there are plenty of new weapons around Peterson this season who weren't there in 2013: like quarterback Teddy Bridgewater ($6,600) and wide receivers Charles Johnson ($4,900) and Mike Wallace ($6,000).

Defenses won't be able to key on Purple Jesus the way they could in seasons past.  

Fantasy Projection for 2015: 1,375 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns, plus 40 catches for 275 yards and two scores.

4. Marshawn Lynch, Seattle Seahawks

Elaine Thompson/Associated Press

Lynch's development as a receiver maximizes his fantasy relevance in 2015.

Marshawn Lynch ($7,300) reinvented himself as an increasingly effective receiver out of the backfield with Russell Wilson ($7,800) at quarterback. His 37 receptions on 48 targets for 367 yards and four touchdowns in 2014 all marked single-season highs in his four-plus years with the Seahawks.

The 29-year-old's evolution as a receiver is a positive as Seattle shifts its offensive philosophy toward a more vertical approach. The team advertised the sea change by trading its top-rated run-blocking O-lineman Max Unger—according to Pro Football Focus—to the New Orleans Saints in exchange for All-Pro tight end Jimmy Graham ($5,600) plus draft picks.

Tim Booth of AP Sports (h/t Komo News) reported Graham expects to be a blocker on the majority of plays, but it's certainly not why he was brought to Seattle despite a positive 2014 run-blocking grade from PFF.

Lynch finished 2014 tied with Denver's C.J. Anderson ($7,000) as the second-most effective rusher with a minimum of 100 carries, per numberFire. He's never dipped below 4.2 yards per carry or 78.6 yards per game in his four full seasons in Seattle.

It's difficult to recommend a more reliable back with only one missed game and three missed starts through that span.

Lynch's strength of schedule is the toughest among the top five backs on this list—opposing defenses average 17.1 points allowed to running backs per game, according to FantasyPros. Shrewd daily fantasy owners can avoid those tougher contests against the St. Louis Rams and Arizona Cardinals, saving Beast Mode for more favorable affairs on the road against the Minnesota Vikings and Cincinnati Bengals.

Celebrations will be in order, although "grabbing your ding-ding" like Lynch might be frowned upon.

Fantasy Projection for 2015: 1,300 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns, plus 40 receptions for 375 yards and four scores.

3. Le'Veon Bell, Pittsburgh Steelers

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Bell takes advantage of limited preseason reps before his two-game suspension sidelines him to start the season.

Note: Pittsburgh Steelers and New England Patriots players are not available for DraftKings' Week 1 fantasy contests.

Daily fantasy owners must be patient as Le'Veon Bell sits out the first two games of 2015, suspended for violating the league's substance-abuse policy. The third-year pro found out the hard way the "I didn't know I couldn't do that" defense only works if your name is Chip in a (NSFW) Dave Chappelle joke.

Former Carolina Panther DeAngelo Williams is expected to assume the bulk of Bell's workload during Weeks 1 and 2.

Bell faces additional adversity when he returns to regular-season action without All-Pro center Maurkice Pouncey in front of him. Dejan Kovacevic of DK Pittsburgh Sports reported Pouncey is expected to miss eight weeks and will be replaced by inexperienced O-line utility journeyman Cody Wallace.

Bell's 2014 campaign was a fantasy revelation resulting in the top grade among running backs, per Pro Football Focus. His skill as a runner, receiver and blocker kept him on the field for 943 of Pittsburgh's 1,134 offensive snaps (82.5 percent), according to PFF.

Only Matt Forte logged a higher snap count among running backs—1,006 out of 1,024 (98.2 percent).

Bell significantly outperformed the running-back field in numberFire's net expected points metric due to his proficiency as a receiver. The 23-year-old would be the favorite to dominate his contemporaries again, except for that pesky two-game ban.

Fantasy Projection for 2015: 1,075 yards rushing and seven touchdowns, plus 65 receptions for 650 yards and three scores.

2. Eddie Lacy, Green Bay Packers

Don Wright/Associated Press

Lacy will likely be expected to carry more of the offensive workload with Jordy Nelson lost for the season.

NFL Media's Ian Rapoport tweeted Monday wide receiver Jordy Nelson will miss the season with a torn ACL, leaving a 1,000-plus-yard void that Eddie Lacy ($7,500) and the rest of the Packers offense must fill.

The third-year pro is proving to be a capable weapon out of the backfield, scoring the second-highest receiving NEP among running backs with at least 30 receptions in 2014. Lacy also ranked third among running backs with at least 30 receptions in yards per catch, averaging 10.2.

Roy Helu Jr. ($3,000) ranked first with 11.4 YPC and Bell finished second at 10.3.

Lacy dropped only one of 44 catchable targets, according to Pro Football Focus.

Tom Silverstein of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reported head coach Mike McCarthy would like to get Lacy more touches but appreciates the balance between health and usage. McCarthy had this to say of Lacy:

"

I really felt that last year's conversation was more important than this year's, the ability to make a huge jump from year one to two, being a three-down player; that was something we stressed from day one, and I thought he delivered.

...

I thought we were really smart the way we used him. ... I thought his pass protection he made a huge jump, and his ability to play out of the backfield. Eddie has excellent hands, and just his understand and his feel with Aaron [Rodgers], he definitely made a step.

"

The 25-year-old increased his participation from 60.5 percent of snaps his rookie season to 65.4 percent in 2014, according to Silverstein.

Daily fantasy owners should expect a comparable increase in 2015, especially after Nelson's injury.

Fantasy Projection for 2015: 1,275 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns, plus 45 receptions for 425 yards and four scores.

1. Jamaal Charles, Kansas City Chiefs

David J. Phillip/Associated Press

Charles put together a Pro Bowl effort in 2014 despite Kansas City's limited offense. Daily fantasy owners can expect the same in 2015.

Besides an injury-shortened 2011 season, Jamaal Charles ($7,900) has not finished outside the top eight in fantasy scoring among running backs since he assumed the starting role in 2010. The seven-year veteran even managed a seventh-place result last season despite an offseason exodus by the majority of Kansas City's 2013 offensive line.

Pro Football Focus graded the Chiefs' 2014 O-line hodgepodge 27th overall, yet Charles produced the highest rushing NEP of any player on this list.

The Kansas City Star's Terez A. Paylor tweeted injured tackles Eric Fisher and Jeff Allen "would probably be a stretch" to return to preseason action this week, but there is no indication the bookends will miss time in the regular season.

The 28-year-old Charles also benefits from the most favorable strength of schedule of the top-rated backs, facing as many bottom-quarter defenses in fantasy points against (four) as top-quarter, according to FantasyPros.

The free-agent acquisition of wide receiver Jeremy Maclin ($6,900), emergence of tight end Travis Kelce ($4,800) and development of WR2 Albert Wilson ($3,000) should help the conservative pairing of quarterback Alex Smith ($6,200) and head coach Andy Reid take some defensive pressure off Charles.

Besides, Charles is capable of making his own luck, grading fourth in PFF's elusive rating in 2014.

Fantasy Projection for 2015: 1,200 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns, plus 55 receptions for 500 yards and six scores.

Standard NFL statistics courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.com, and CBS Sports provided standard fantasy stats unless otherwise noted. NEP refers to numberFire's proprietary Net Expected Points algorithm.  

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