Super Early Odds to Win the 2016 Masters Post-PGA Championship Edition
Jason Day closed out the 2015 PGA Championship to earn his first major title and conclude a season that otherwise belonged to the Masters and U.S. Open champion Jordan Spieth.
Some might say it’s time to look ahead to the Presidents Cup on October 8 or even the start of the next PGA Tour season—but we say those people aren’t being nearly ambitious enough.
The 2016 Masters may be eight months away, but it’s never too early to start picking favorites. With the help of consensus odds courtesy of Oddschecker, we’ve assembled a list of the early favorites for next year’s first major championship.
Do the experts believe Spieth can turn his historic year into a personal dynasty at golf’s biggest events? Will Rory McIlroy be back at his best to challenge the 22-year-old Texan? And who else is poised to spoil the party for the world’s top two players at Augusta?
Read on to get the early odds and see the favorites to win the next green jacket.
Rickie Fowler
1 of 10
Odds to Win: 33-1
2015 PGA Championship Result: T-30
Results at Last Three Masters: T-12, T-5, T-38
Rickie Fowler may remember 2015 as the year he finally got the respect he deserves as a player.
The world No. 8 is just 66 FedEx Cup points behind his all-time record (set in 2010), and he’s done it with 11 fewer events. This season, Fowler won a playoff for the Players Championship, won the Scottish Open outright and was runner-up at the Quicken Loans National.
After his 2014 flirtation with all four majors (tied for fifth at the Masters, tied for second at the U.S. Open, tied for second at the British Open, tied for third at the PGA Championship), this season’s run wasn’t as impressive as many expected.
However, instead of trying to pass off that string of top-five major finishes as a fluke, Fowler’s fans should take comfort in his five top-10 finishes in non-major events this season—because that’s exactly what the oddsmakers are doing.
If Jason Day’s shiny new Wanamaker Trophy is any indication, it should only be a matter of time before a player of Fowler’s caliber bags a major of his own.
Phil Mickelson
2 of 10
Odds to Win: 28-1
2015 PGA Championship Result: T-18
Results at Last Three Masters: T-2, Missed Cut, T-54
Lefty has had better years on tour, but this one is still far from a wash for the five-time major champion.
Mickelson only has three top-10 finishes in 2015, but among them are a tie for third at the FedEx St. Jude Classic and—most importantly—a tie for second at Augusta. Like the proverbial grape suspended in a block of jello, Lefty’s Masters experience seems to be unaffected by negative play at any other events in a given year.
Since 1995, he has had 15 top-10 finishes at the year’s first major. Add to that the fact that Mickelson only missed two cuts and landed outside the top 20 on three occasions at the Masters over that same period, and it’s easy to see why he’s one of the favorites yet again.
The 45-year-old may be edging closer to the end of his career, but his three top-three finishes in the past six seasons suggest there’s still plenty of gas left in the tank—at least at Augusta.
Adam Scott
3 of 10
Odds to Win: 28-1
2015 PGA Championship Result: Missed Cut
Results at Last Three Masters: T-38, T-14, Won
Speaking of guys with less-than-astounding seasons this year, Adam Scott has only registered three top-10 finishes since January.
Things started off well with a tie for fourth at the WGC-Cadillac Championship, but there were few highlights until June when he tied for fourth at the U.S. Open. Scott followed that up with an impressive tie for 10th at the British Open.
Unfortunately for the Australian and his fans, though, he curtailed any potential majors momentum when he missed the cut at Whistling Straits with opening rounds of 76 and 75.
So why is Scott among the favorites for the next green jacket? Well, he won the tournament in 2013 and had three top-10 finishes in his last five attempts.
Scott is still ranked No. 12 in the world—despite being No. 91 in FedEx Cup points this season—and his green jacket comes with an immeasurable psychological bonus, should he make it to championship Sunday in April.
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Justin Rose
4 of 10
Odds to Win: 28-1
2015 PGA Championship Result: Fourth
Results at Last Three Masters: T-2, T-14, T-25
How do you overlook the Englishman who is holding down both the No. 5 world ranking and the No. 5 FedEx Cup ranking? You don’t.
Justin Rose has had an exceptional year. Overall, he has seven top-10 finishes, including a win at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans, a second-place finish at the Memorial Tournament and a tie for third at the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational.
At the majors, Rose tied for second at the Masters, tied for 27th at the U.S. Open, tied for sixth at the British Open and took fourth at the PGA Championship.
Clearly, he feels just as comfortable playing for the biggest trophies as the most modest silverware, so what’s not to like about his chances at the Masters next year?
Tiger Woods
5 of 10
Odds to Win: 28-1
2015 PGA Championship Result: Missed Cut
Results at Last Three Masters: T-17, Did Not Play, T-4
Hey, don’t look at us—we’re as surprised as you are.
Either the oddsmakers spent the entire year in golf isolation, or they're basing their figures on Tiger Woods’ legacy rather than the man he is today. Since the latter is slightly more likely than the former, let’s try to make sense of their logic.
The 14-time major winner has four green jackets that are collecting dust in his wardrobe. Those fetching accoutrements came into his possession in 1997, 2001, 2002 and 2005, respectively, which means any moths that may be living in Tiger’s closet have now experienced a full decade bereft of fine dining.
We share their pain.
This season, Woods has only managed two top-25 finishes. He’s made five cuts, missed four and withdrawn once (from the Farmers Insurance Open before the Masters). True, Tiger tied for 17th at Augusta—thanks to second and third rounds of 69 and 68—but is that really enough to give the world No. 268 player 28-1 odds for 2016?
Apparently, but we’ll believe it when we see it.
Dustin Johnson
6 of 10
Odds to Win: 20-1
2015 PGA Championship Result: T-7
Results at Last Three Masters: T-6, Missed Cut, T-13
World No. 7 Dustin Johnson has had an eventful year to say the least, but he has yet to break through the majors barrier.
He began the 2015 majors season with a tie for sixth at the Masters, followed it up with a tie for sixth at the U.S. Open, struggled to a tie for 49th at St Andrews and capped off the year with a tie for seventh at Whistling Straits.
Much like Rickie Fowler’s 2014, it’s surprising Johnson wasn’t able to claim one major title after coming so close so often. However, the oddsmakers are choosing to look on those results as bank for the future rather than proof the player is incapable of overcoming the psychological hurdle.
Since 2009, Johnson has managed 10 top-10 finishes in major tournaments. Granted, only one of those came at the Masters, but the record is still proof he can routinely put himself in position to contend on Sunday.
Since he claimed victory at this year’s WGC-Cadillac Championship as one of his eight top-10 results, it’s clear Johnson can finish off tournaments. Again, like Fowler, it should only be a matter of time before he writes himself into history.
Bubba Watson
7 of 10
Odds to Win: 16-1
2015 PGA Championship Result: T-21
Results at Last Three Masters: T-38, Won, T-50
Bubba Watson’s performances at majors and at regular PGA Tour events are two very different stories.
This season, he has seven top-10 finishes on tour, including a playoff win at the Travelers Championship, back-to-back silver medals at the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational and Canadian Open, a tie for second at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and a third at the WGC-Cadillac Championship.
However, Watson has only earned four top-10 finishes at the majors in the last decade (and that’s from 31 total starts). What’s more, he missed the cut in roughly one-third of those attempts.
Clearly, the oddsmakers are focusing on a combination of his overall play on tour and his two recent green jackets (2012 and 2014) when assigning the 36-year-old 16-1 odds at next year’s Masters.
We guess if they’re going to use that same logic to give Tiger 28-1 odds, then Bubba more than deserves his 16-1 nod.
Jason Day
8 of 10
Odds to Win: 11-1
2015 PGA Championship Result: First
Results at Last Three Masters: T-28, T-20, Third
All hail the 2015 PGA champion!
Forgive the fanfare, as we’re not trying to show favoritism toward any one player, but it feels like cause for celebration when a player of Jason Day’s caliber finally breaks his majors hoodoo after grinding for so many years.
Since 2010, the Australian has registered 10 top-10 finishes at the majors (with only two missed cuts and one withdrawal). This year, his tie for 28th at the Masters, tie for ninth at the U.S. Open and tie for fourth at the British Open showed a distinct, pre-PGA Championship trajectory toward victory at Whistling Straits.
If Day can sustain that momentum—and why not?—he will undoubtedly be in contention on Sunday at Augusta the next time around.
The Australian's eight top-10 finishes and three wins on tour, spanning from February to August, prove he is sustaining his play at an elite level. When you’ve played this well and kicked some psychological demons to the curb, you deserve to be an early favorite for the 2016 Masters.
Rory McIlroy
9 of 10
Odds to Win: 7-1
2015 PGA Championship Result: 17th
Results at Last Three Masters: Fourth T-8, T-25
He may have lost his world No. 1 ranking, but we can forgive Rory McIlroy for affording the field a full month to make up ground while he was out with injury.
Despite returning to competition by jumping directly into the fires of the PGA Championship, the Northern Irishman fared well at Whistling Straits, all things considered.
Through only nine starts this season, he managed to land inside the top 20 on every occasion but once (a missed cut at the Honda Classic). He earned trophies at the WGC-Cadillac Match Play and Wells Fargo Championship and, most importantly for this discussion, took fourth at the Masters.
The fact that a green jacket is the only piece of majors memorabilia he lacks will serve as a considerable incentive to win at Augusta this coming April and complete his career Grand Slam. For some players (see Phil Mickelson) that could serve as a psychological hindrance, but the oddsmakers are more optimistic.
Rory has finished in the top 10 at the Masters twice in the last two years and improved his final position considerably in each of the last four. Would you bet against him winning in 2016?
Well, maybe if you’re a fan of Jordan Spieth…
Jordan Spieth
10 of 10
Odds to Win: 13-2
2015 PGA Championship Result: Second
Results at Last Three Masters: Won, T-2, Did Not Play
The world has a new No. 1: His name is Jordan Spieth, and exactly no one is surprised.
The 22-year-old from Texas has systematically dismantled the majors—along with many of the regular events on tour—to claim this year as his own. Spieth has 14 top-10 finishes this season, including wins at the Hero World Challenge, the John Deere Classic and the year’s first two majors.
In 2016, he will be the defending champion at the Masters…where he has never finished outside the top two. When a player tied for second in his debut and handily wins the green jacket the following year, we can’t help but imagine it as the beginning of the greatest run of Masters dominance we’ve ever seen.
Maybe we’re getting ahead of ourselves, but the oddsmakers seem to favor that possibility (at least for now).
Spieth has clearly figured out how to optimize his performance at every major, and there’s no reason to believe he’ll make any major shift away from that highly dependable formula. And we all know that old saying—if it ain’t broke, don’t bet against it.
Or something like that.
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