Volatile Stocks: 2016 NBA Draft Prospects Entering Make-or-Break Seasons
For some hopeful NBA prospects, an uninspiring 2015-16 season could potentially sink their draft stock. Minimal progress in college doesn't quite suggest room for growth as a pro. Failing to show improvement over the course of three or four years will naturally turn scouts off.
The following prospects are legitimate first-round talents who've yet to put it all together. However, it doesn't mean we should write them off. A strong year could launch them straight up 2016 draft boards.
At one point in time, each of these prospects have been viewed as potential top-30 selections. Most of them have all the tools—they just need to make specific strides they've yet to make in their college careers, whether it's their shooting, conditioning, efficiency or consistency.
Tyrone Wallace, California, 6'5", PG, Senior
1 of 6
Chance of Rebound Year: 75 percent
Though undeniably talented and highly productive, Tyrone Wallace's NBA sales pitch remains incomplete.
He's yet to make any real strides as a shooter through three years at California. Wallace actually took a step backward in 2014-15, when he made just 28 threes in 1,152 minutes. His 31.8 percent three-point clip and 60.6 percent mark from the line translated to a disastrous true shooting percentage of 48.4 percent, per Sports-Reference.com.
Wallace also hasn't been overly convincing in terms of his ability to distribute. This past season, he registered a negative pure point rating (measures assists to turnovers relative to each other) of minus-0.57, per RealGM.com.
But he did average 17.1 points, 7.1 rebounds and 4.0 assists, having showcased eye-opening athleticism and playmaking skills. At 6'5" with a handle, he's a major open-floor weapon and difficult cover off the dribble.
However, you won't find many teams willing to invest a first-round pick in a ball dominator (monster 31.2 percent usage rate) who can't shoot or facilitate.
On the bright side, with a much better supporting cast in 2015-16, the table is ultimately set for Wallace to improve his efficiency and draft stock.
Wayne Selden, Kansas, 6'5", SG, Junior
2 of 6
Chance of Rebound Year: 60 percent
Wayne Selden entered his freshman year at Kansas in the lottery-to-first-round conversation, but since then, he's steadily drifted away.
Before he becomes completely irrelevant in the NBA discussion, Selden will need to quickly remind scouts what fueled all the hype out of high school.
At 6'5", 230 pounds, he's a strong 2-guard with a pro body—his offensive game just hasn't fully developed.
Selden lacks that one standout offensive strength, whether it's scoring, playmaking or shooting. He's averaged under 10 points and three assists per game in back-to-back seasons, having flashed little one-on-one ability or outside consistency.
Improving his touch and range could unsurprisingly do big things for his draft stock.
Selden hit just 31.5 percent of his two-point jumpers as a sophomore, per Hoop-Math.com. He did raise his three-ball rate to 36.5 percent (from 32.8 percent), but regressing or plateauing in 2016 could end up squashing any hope he created.
On the other hand, approaching the 38-40 percent mark from deep may help build up his image as a physical three-and-D wing.
A strong year might ultimately launch Selden right back onto the radar—but another bland one could permanently knock him off.
Amida Brimah, Connecticut, 7'0", C, Junior
3 of 6
Chance of Rebound Year: 50 percent
Amida Brimah didn't break out as a sophomore the way he looked like he would following Connecticut's 2014 national title run.
His size, athleticism and defensive potential should have bought him another year, but if he struggles to make the jump in 2015-16, it could end up losing him believers and supporters.
Brimah struggled against noteworthy big men last season, having shot 1-of-7 early against Texas' Myles Turner and Cameron Ridley before fouling out in 13 minutes against Duke's Jahlil Okafor.
And though it's his rim protection that NBA teams will covet, watching him average 4.1 points over the Huskies' final eight games was difficult to accept.
Brimah did block 5.3 shots per 40 minutes, and at 7'0" with long arms, he certainly looks the part of a pro center.
Unfortunately, he had issues adjusting to officiating and staying on the floor (fouled out five times).
Becoming comfortable with physical bigs and increasing the threat he poses in the post could ultimately propel him back into the first-round conversation. Heavy foul trouble and minimal offensive production—again—may raise questions concerning his room for growth.
Isaiah Taylor, Texas, 6'1", PG, Junior
4 of 6
Chance of Rebound Year: 50 percent
With blazing quickness and playmaking skills, there is good reason for NBA teams to continue tracking Isaiah Taylor. The appeal to Taylor ultimately stems from his ability to make things happen off the dribble.
But Taylor has hit just 16 threes in 59 career games, having failed to show much shooting improvement in 2014-15 (49.1 percent true shooting percentage, per Sports-Reference.com).
He didn't do a good enough job last year to sell his facilitating or shot selection, either. Taylor registered a 4.6-2.6 assist-to-turnover ratio and 40.1 percent field-goal clip. He ultimately relies on taking difficult floaters and runners, as opposed to more balanced stop-and-pop pull-ups off two feet—a result of poor confidence in his jumper.
But there is hope when you consider Taylor knocked down 84.2 percent of his free throws. And it's worth noting he "shot the ball surprisingly well all camp long" this summer at the LeBron James Nike Skills Academy, according to DraftExpress' Mike Schmitz.
A more efficient year as a decision-maker and shooter could potentially propel Taylor into the first-round conversation. Little to no progress might knock him out of it for good.
A.J. Hammons, Purdue, 7'0", C, Senior
5 of 6
Chance of Rebound Year: 40 percent
A 7-foot rim protector who can score in the post, A.J. Hammons has NBA potential—he just hasn't sold it particularly well.
His energy level has been questioned for years. ESPN.com's Myron Medcalf recently referred to him as "the big man with big dreams and a motor that's too often near empty."
Consistency just hasn't been easy for Hammons to achieve through three seasons at Purdue. This upcoming year will ultimately be his last chance to pitch NBA scouts.
Hammons spent time earlier in the summer working with John Lucas down in Houston, according to the Lafayette Journal & Courier's Nathan Baird.
"I didn't learn that much about college basketball," Hammons told Baird. "It was more like NBA ball—working on spacing and everything you've got to get done at the next level. Getting your shot off quicker, things like that."
Hammons has flashed encouraging back-to-the-basket moves and even some touch in the mid-range. Having blocked 4.6 shots per 40 minutes after swatting five the year before, NBA teams will certainly value his defensive presence as well.
Proving to be an every-game impact player should help reignite the draft buzz. But as a 23-year-old senior (birthday is August 27), failing to take the next step would suggest he's already peaked. A down year would likely destroy his stock.
Marcus Paige, North Carolina, 6'1", PG, Senior
6 of 6
Chance of Rebound Year: 30 percent
Marcus Paige will be fighting for a future NBA life in his final year at North Carolina.
Without great burst or athleticism, his ball skills and scoring ability have always kept him afloat in the draft conversation.
Unfortunately, he took a small step backward in 2014-15, with his scoring average (17.5 to 14.1) and field-goal percentage (44.0 percent to 41.3 percent) both falling.
He struggled badly inside the arc, where he shot an ugly 43.8 percent. Paige has trouble with length and rarely gets to the line (2.9 attempts, 33.2 minutes per game).
However, he continues to shoot extremely well from outside (2.5 threes per game, 39.5 percent). Paige has terrific shot-making touch around the perimeter, which may hold value off an NBA bench, but he'll have to offer more to realistically stick around the league.
Considering he was never known for his distributing, another inefficient year as a scorer could eliminate Paige from the draft discussion entirely. On the flip side, raising his two-point percentage may help take some attention off his flaws and in turn allow his strengths as a shot-maker to shine.
.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
