Max Holloway vs. Charles Oliveira: A Head-to-Toe Breakdown
UFC Fight Night 74 is headlined by a stellar featherweight contest that is flying under the radar.
No. 5-ranked contender Max Holloway squares off against No. 7-ranked Charles Oliveira. The two 145-pound fighters have contrasting styles that should make for an intriguing battle. The two fighters have looked spectacular recently.
Oliveira is on a four-fight winning streak, defeating Andy Ogle, Hatsu Hioki, Jeremy Stephens and Nik Lentz. It's an impressive run for the former lightweight prospect.
Holloway has an even better streak going. Since losing to Conor McGregor by decision in 2013, he has reeled off six consecutive victories to move himself into the division's Top Five.
This is a quality Fight Night main event.
How will it shake out? That is why we are here. Let's take a look at the head-to-toe breakdown of the featherweight contest coming your way on August 23.
Striking
1 of 5
This is a classic striker vs. grappler fight. Thus, it should come as no surprise that Holloway has the edge on the feet.
He has always had solid hands, but he has improved a lot on his feet throughout his UFC career. The Hawaiian still invites scraps, but he is better at fighting smart as opposed to having wild brawls that would shorten his career.
Holloway is a volume striker. He also mixes in kicks, knees and elbows nicely with his punches. If Oliveira stays on his feet the entire fight, he will have difficulty finding success against Holloway. However, don't count Oliveira out completely. His stand-up has improved tremendously.
Ultimately, Holloway is better technically and has the defensive skills to make it a rough night at the office for Oliveira, should the fight stay upright.
Edge: Holloway
Grappling
2 of 5
Oliveira is certainly the better grappler, but he isn't necessarily the better wrestler.
Oliveira finds different ways to get the fight to the mat. If he has to pull guard, he will and won't hesitate. He knows how good his ground work is, and once on the turf, he is a constant threat to finish.
Holloway closes the gap in this category with his clinch work.
In the clinch, it may be Holloway who gets the better of the exchanges. He can keep Oliveira pinned against the cage and start working in some short strikes. These will be key battles within the fight to see who can establish dominance.
All around, I favor Oliveira's skills. His different techniques to get the fight to the ground, and his control once there, tip the balance in his favor.
Edge: Oliveira
Submissions
3 of 5
The overall grappling is more even than most would like to admit, but the submission ability is clearly in favor of Oliveira.
This is his strong suit. Ask submission ace Hatsu Hioki.
Twelve of Oliveira's 20 wins have come by way of submission. That is a fairly remarkable stat. He is a finisher on the floor, and he has a variety of weapons once the fight hits the canvas. He doesn't just look for a guillotine or rear-naked choke. He mixes it up and isn't afraid to lose position by taking chances.
Holloway's submission defense is above-average. That won't be enough for prolonged stretches on the mat against Oliveira, but it should be enough to allow him to survive while working back up to his feet.
This area is clearly in Oliveira's favor. Even from top position, Holloway needs to be concerned. Oliveira can snatch a limb at any given point and end the fight.
Edge: Oliveira
X-Factor: Matching the Opponent's Strength
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Typically, I would give an X-factor for both participants, but in this case it is the same thing. Holloway and Oliveira must be competitive where they are weaker to their opponent.
For Holloway, that means avoiding the ground game as much as possible. He has good takedown defense, but should he hit the mat, he needs to defend intelligently. Oliveira is fast and slick on the mat. Holloway cannot give the Brazilian an opening to end the fight.
For Oliveira, he must be cautious on the feet. He will have a reach advantage and should look to use that to keep Holloway from finding continued success. Holloway has good length as well, so Oliveira won't be able to completely stifle the American.
If each fighter is competitive where he is weaker in this matchup, it could be a very close bout that goes the distance.
This is not so much a do-or-die case of Holloway having to keep the fight standing or Oliveira having to get this fight down on the mat. However, this is a case where they need to be competitive where they are weaker so they are not outclassed.
Prediction
5 of 5
This is an exciting matchup. If you travel back to 2013, Holloway may not be the name you picked to be in the Top Five at 145 pounds in two years.
His winning streak continues against Oliveira.
Oliveira has all the skills to get the win, but this being a five-round fight plays into Holloway's hands.
He can be patient in the early going, and that will allow him to better defend takedown attempts. Also, Holloway is one of the best in MMA at attacking the body with strikes. That will be the difference in this fight.
Oliveira will begin to slow and tire as Holloway digs to the body. That will catch up to the Brazilian in the fourth round. Holloway will sense that his opponent is breaking, go in for the finish and have to be pulled off a battered Oliveira for a TKO victory.
Winning seven straight in this division is a remarkable accomplishment. It's doubtful a win puts him in the title picture with Frankie Edgar waiting in the wings, but Holloway will at least demand attention.
Prediction: Holloway defeats Oliveira by TKO in the fourth round.
