Fantasy Football 2015: What You Need to Know Before Making Your Draft Board

Christmas in August has returned!

With fantasy football coming back in to the fold, this is the perfect time to tell your boss you can no longer work Sundays, tell your significant other to leave you alone (or join in!) on Sundays and invite your friends over for some "Sunday Funday" (jeez, I'm lame).

I'm assuming that because you're reading this, your fantasy draft is coming up. You've probably been too busy with work and other obligations to pay attention to what is going on around the league, but never fear, I am here to help.

While the offseason and preseason are great times to start preparing for your draft, there can be a lot of smokescreens. While I'm not Nostradamus (though I like to think I am sometimes), I hope I can provide some clarity as to what to expect and to keep in mind when you're sitting there contemplating which players to draft.

I have 10 tips for you.

You Need to Draft Cameron Artis-Payne

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We can all agree Jonathan Stewart isn't the healthiest.

If you're drafting Jonathan Stewart to be one of your starting running backs, you obviously want his handcuff.

However, this slide is for the people who can steal "CAP" away from "JStew" owners!

The rookie (and Auburn product) Cameron Artis-Payne has a real shot to be a productive running back this season.

Stewart has a tendency to get hurt. While I hate the axiom of "injury prone", the fact of the matter is he has been unlucky.

He missed some time last season with an MCL injury. In the offseason, DeAngelo Williams took his talents to the Steel City, which leaves Artis-Payne as the presumed backup. The other thing Artis-Payne has going for him is he's really the only running back with a pulse on the Carolina Panthers roster after Stewart.

While CAP wasn't a prominent pass-catcher at Auburn, he has little tread on his tires.

Draft the rookie no matter what. He could pay off big down the line.

Markus Wheaton Provides Cheap Upside at Wide Receiver

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Markus will be making catches like this for you this season (that is a catch, right?).

Before you already close out of this fabulous slideshow being only one slide in, hear me out.

ADP. ADP. ADP.

The Pittsburgh Steelers have a wealth of talent at the wide receiver position. Because of this, Markus Wheaton has been put on the back burner.

As of now, Martavis Bryant is going as WR25 in points-per-reception drafts, per Fantasy Pros. Markus Wheaton? WR59.

Come on, people! Wheaton isn't dead! He's going right around the Michael Crabtree area! Bryant wowed us last season with his big-play ability and also has a touchdown this preseason, but Wheaton was no slouch last season. He finished with 58 receptions for 710 yards and two touchdowns. Yeah, the touchdowns were low, but those should go up. To buy in to this, you have to be a believer in Ben Roethlisberger too (which you should be, and if not, what the heck, dude).

I'm fine with you taking Bryant. Like I said, he's going to do well this season, but don't undervalue Wheaton in the process.

For what it's worth, Big Ben did say Wheaton would be the breakout player this season on SiriusXM NFL Radio!

Slow Down the Latavius Murray Hype Train

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The new "flavor of the month," Latavius Murray is getting a lot of hype. I like his ability, but I'm not ready to call him a top-20 running back, which a lot of outlets are doing.

Let's examine Murray's 2014 campaign, courtesy of Pro Football Focus:

• Week 2: 1 carry, 6 yards
• Week 3: 3 carries, 1 yard
• Week 9: 0 carries, 0 yards; 2 receptions, 12 yards
• Week 10: 2 carries, 4 yards; 1 reception, 1 yard
• Week 11: 4 carries, 43 yards; 3 receptions, 16 yards
• Week 12 (the game that made him who he is): 4 carries, 112 yards, 2 touchdowns, 1 fumble; no receiving
• Week 14: 23 carries, 76 yards; 2 receptions, 9 yards
• Week 15: 12 carries, 59 yards; 2 receptions, 17 yards
• Week 16: 23 carries, 86 yards; 3 receptions, 22 yards
• Week 17: 10 carries, 37 yards; 4 receptions, 60 yards

That's not so great, is it?

If you look up "potential" in the dictionary, you'll see a picture of Murray, but I can't endorse him as a top-20 running back. His pass-catching was pedestrian, and if not for the big Kansas City game, he would be an afterthought. Oh, by the way, the Raiders did sign a guy named Roy Helu, who is quite the pass-catcher.

Murray is especially downgraded for me if you're in a PPR league. I'll even go as far to say that Helu will have more fantasy points than Murray in 2015.

Vincent Jackson Will Rebound

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"You know I'll be better than my current ADP, right bro?"

This makes me sad.

The lack of respect for Vincent Jackson is atrocious. WR30? Are you kidding me?

That's all right; if you haven't drafted yet, you have time to change that!

Jackson had 142 targets last year. Yeah, you read that right—142. What hurt his value last year was his catch rate, which was really low at 49 percent. However, only 77 of the balls thrown [Vincent Jackson's] way were deemed catchable. Yes, he had seven drops, but the quarterback play in Tampa Bay was atrocious, and he still went over 1,000 yards but recorded just two touchdowns.

This season, Jackson presumably has a better quarterback throwing him the ball. In addition, offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter comes over from the Atlanta Falcons, where he got used to a dynamic duo of receivers. There is absolutely no way Jackson finishes that poorly again this year.

"But Richard, Jameis Winston is a rookie."

Yeah, don't care. According to Football Outsiders, Koetter started to run a faster-paced offense with the Falcons last season (sixth in the league at 26.52 second per play), and most of his quarterbacks have been successful (minus Blaine Gabbert). I mean, come on, Quinn Gray had his moment with Koetter in Jacksonville.

According to Pro Football Focus, quarterbacks under Koetter have averaged approximately 524 attempts and a 62.5 percent completion rate per season (if you include Gabbert). Without Gabbert, they've attempted 599 passes, with an astonishing 71.4 percent completion rate per season.

I could see Jackson catching 80-plus balls this season. No, I'm not insane.

Julio Jones Is Poised for a Monster Season

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Expect to see a lot of touchdown celebrations this season from Jones.

We all knew Julio Jones was a monster, but WR1-like monster? Some people question it, but I believe it.

I can't throw out some advanced statistic as proof, but just look at the Falcons depth chart! They lost Harry Douglas in free agency but drafted Justin Hardy (who I'm a huge fan of) and Leonard Hankerson. Although Jones has an injury history, so does teammate Roddy White.

Since Tony Gonzalez, this team has lacked a tight end but this past draft, Atlanta picked up running back Tevin Coleman.

Jones had a ridiculous line last season (104 receptions, 1,593 yards, six touchdowns), and those touchdowns will go up. It's silly to predict double-digit scores because of how hard of a feat that is to accomplish, but he could easily have a dozen. Oh right, he also has a pretty good quarterback in Matt Ryan.

Think about drafting him as your WR1 or get him later and make your league-mates regret not taking this guy.

Stay Away from Rookie Tight Ends

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If you draft rookie tight ends like Maxx Williams, you will be disappointed.

Even as a Baltimore Ravens fan, I'm avoiding Maxx Williams like the plague this season.

This goes especially for the guy (yeah, you!) who drafted Eric Ebron last season.

Rookie tight ends do not produce. I'm going to throw some stats at you here, so bear with me.

1. There have only been two rookie tight ends since 2007 to have 50-plus receptions: John Carlson (2008) and Jermaine Gresham (2010).
2. In the same time span, only four rookie tight ends finished with more than five touchdowns: John Carlson (6, 2008), Rob Gronkowski (10, 2010), Aaron Hernandez (6, 2010), Joseph Fauria (7, 2013).

In general, rookie tight ends struggle when they first enter the league and need time to develop. Definitely don't draft one of these guys to be your starter, but always watch the waiver wire as injuries do happen and they could potentially be the beneficiaries (look for Williams and MyCole Pruitt in that case).

Ryan Tannehill Poised to Break out

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Top-five quarterback, maybe?

Not that this is entirely a new concept, but Ryan Tannehill should produce big numbers for your squad this season.

Last season, he had some good weapons, but one in particular didn't fit his skill set (Mike Wallace). This season, Tannehill now has Jordan Cameron, DeVante Parker, Greg Jennings, Kenny Stills and Jay Ajayi, and he keeps Jarvis Landry and Lamar Miller.

Look at his 2014 numbers: 4,059 yards, 27 touchdowns, 12 interceptions. He's ready to throw 30 touchdowns.

There is absolutely no reason for Tannehill to be going outside the top 10 at the position, and he should finish in the top seven.

Look for Landry to be a huge beneficiary of Tannehill's success and for Cameron to come back a little closer to his 2013 form.

C.J. Anderson Comes with Risk

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Anderson is a little risky for me to take as my RB1.

This is tough, because I am a huge believer in C.J. Anderson, but the Denver Broncos have an embarrassment of riches when it comes to running backs.

As a Montee Ball owner last season, I just saw how fast he went from a borderline first-round pick, to, like, I don't even know a proper term to describe his low value.

I'm afraid if Anderson was to somehow miss a few games, and Ronnie Hillman or Ball stepped in and produced, he could be benched or see a timeshare.

To be fair, head coach John Fox is no longer with the team, but there is still some worry.

Don't avoid Anderson, as he had one heck of a season last year, but just know when you draft him that he comes with an element of risk that a lot of the other top-tier backs don't have.

Eli Manning Could Be a Top-5 QB

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With all systems go, can Eli produce top-five numbers?

Eli Manning has always been kind of frustrating. However, he did have a pretty good 2014 campaign.

After almost eclipsing 4,500 yards and throwing 30 touchdowns in 2014, he will have a second year under the Ben McAdoo-led offense, and all of his weapons will be on the field at the same time.

The thought of Odell Beckham Jr., Victor Cruz, Rueben Randle and Larry Donnell on the field is scary, and the New York Giants also added former New England Patriots running back Shane Vereen.

If you want to dispute my theory at all, I'll give you this: The Giants offensive line is a bit scary (in a bad way).

Guys like Eli and Tannehill are reasons you wait on a quarterback. These two guys are going right next to each other (12th and 13th, respectively) but offer top-five upside.

Moral of the story: Wait on a passer and get a guy like Eli in the seventh round or later. It will pay off for you.

Vernon Davis Should Rebound in a Big Way

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This face pretty much sums up his 2014 season.

To be honest, I'm not sure what happened to Vernon Davis last year, but I know it cannot happen again.

To put any kind of faith in a San Francisco 49er at this point in time is scary. At this rate, Davis could retire as I type this, but I have hope for the former TE1.

Look at what's left of the 49ers: They have the former Baltimore Ravens wide receiver duo in Torrey Smith and Anquan Boldin and sophomore Carlos Hyde as the starting running back.

You have to expect the 49ers to trail quite a bit this season. After the departure of Michael Crabtree, and accounting for Colin Kaepernick's ability (which is rumored to be much improved, according to Jim Corbett of USA Today), Davis should see more action than he did last year (if not, I'm a terrible analyst).

The addition of Smith will help Davis, as it should open up the middle of the field for him to run like a gazelle.

You can get him late, and probably as your backup, but he has a chance to rebound and be a top-10 tight end this season.