Odds of Each Wild-Card Long Shot Pulling off a Shocker
The line "if the season ended today" gets thrown around a lot at this point in the MLB season, but the truth is there is still a lot of baseball to be played.
At roughly the same juncture in the season last year (115 games played), the Milwaukee Brewers still led the NL Central standings and the Toronto Blue Jays would have grabbed the No. 2 AL wild-card spot over the Kansas City Royals.
The point is a lot can change over the final month and a half of a 162-game season, so it's worth taking a look at some teams currently on the periphery of the playoff picture to see who could make a late charge.
The following highlights 10 teams currently on the outside looking in and their odds of changing that and reaching the playoffs when the 2015 regular season comes to a close.
Arizona Diamondbacks (56-58)
1 of 10
Playoff Odds: 50-1
Current Standing: 8.0 GB in NL West, 10.0 GB in NL Wild Card
Recent Performance: 6-7 in August, 14-13 in second half
Outlook
As the new front office duo of general manager Dave Stewart and team president Tony LaRussa continue to rework the roster, this was expected to be a rebuilding year for the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Granted, they are still an extreme long shot to reach the postseason, but at two games under .500, this team has played far better than most people expected it to heading into the year.
The pitching staff is still a work in progress, with plenty of help expected to come from the farm system. The offensive core of Paul Goldschmidt, A.J. Pollock, David Peralta and Yasmany Tomas gives them a good foundation to build around.
Their schedule is actually somewhat favorable the rest of the way with games against a lot of losing teams in the Colorado Rockies (seven), San Diego Padres (six), Cincinnati Reds (four), Oakland Athletics (three) and Atlanta Braves (two). A winning record would be a solid accomplishment in 2015.
Baltimore Orioles (58-56)
2 of 10
Playoff Odds: 5-1
Current Standing: 5.0 GB in AL East, 1.5 GB in AL Wild Card
Recent Performance: 6-6 in August, 14-12 in second half
Outlook
After running away with the AL East title last year by 12 games over the New York Yankees, the Baltimore Orioles have flown under the radar this season.
Yet they are just 1.5 games removed from the second American League wild-card spot, vying to reach the postseason for the third time in four years.
He was hit hard his last time out, but Chris Tillman had looked sharp prior to that with a 0.91 ERA in his previous four starts. Getting him pitching like an ace down the stretch would go a long way in solidifying what has been a shaky starting rotation.
The Orioles have two series each remaining against the New York Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays, so they'll have a chance to make up some ground head-to-head in both the AL East and wild-card races.
Cleveland Indians (54-60)
3 of 10
Playoff Odds: 20-1
Current Standing: 14.5 GB in AL Central, 5.5 GB in AL Wild Card
Recent Performance: 6-6 in August, 12-14 in second half
Outlook
The Cleveland Indians entered the All-Star break riding a solid 9-5 record in their last 14 games, and if any underperforming team looked poised for a big second-half turnaround, it was the Tribe.
Unfortunately, that hasn't been the case. As things currently stand, the team is still toiling in the AL Central cellar.
The three-headed monster of Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar is capable of shutting down the opposition when these players are on top of their games, and the offense is averaging 4.38 runs per game in the second half. At this point, though, that simply hasn't added up to the hot streak this team needs to climb back into the playoff race.
The Indians just kicked off an 11-game road trip, and 20 of their next 25 games are away from Progressive Field.
However, they've actually been significantly better on the road (30-26) than at home (24-34) this year, so maybe that will work to their advantage.
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Chicago White Sox (54-59)
4 of 10
Playoff Odds: 20-1
Current Standing: 14.0 GB in AL Central, 5.0 GB in AL Wild Card
Recent Performance: 5-7 in August, 13-14 in second half
Outlook
The Chicago White Sox looked like clear sellers leading up to the trade deadline, but a seven-game winning streak pulled them to 49-50 on July 29. That was enough for them to hold on to Jeff Samardzija and their other potential trade chips.
Unfortunately, that momentum did not continue, and they dropped three straight series before a three-game sweep of the Los Angeles Angels earlier this week.
Adam Eaton (.343 BA, 1.004 OPS) and Melky Cabrera (.339 BA, .951 OPS) have sparked the offense with strong second-half performances, and after posting a minus-73 run differential in the first half, they're at plus-nine since the All-Star break.
They're by no means dead at just five games back in the wild-card race, but in a crowded American League field, six teams are ahead of them in the running for the No. 2 spot.
Their upcoming four-game series with the Angels, who currently hold that No. 2 spot, will be a big one.
Detroit Tigers (55-60)
5 of 10
Playoff Odds: 25-1
Current Standing: 14.0 GB in AL Central, 5.0 GB in AL Wild Card
Recent Performance: 5-7 in August, 11-16 in second half
Outlook
Despite shipping out David Price, Yoenis Cespedes and Joakim Soria at the trade deadline, the Detroit Tigers are still on the periphery of the American League playoff hunt.
That being said, it's hard to see this team putting together a serious playoff push with its current pitching staff.
Since the All-Star break, the team has posted a 5.08 ERA that ranks 26th in the league, and that number includes three strong starts from Price before he was traded to Toronto.
J.D. Martinez is having a great season, and Miguel Cabrera is finally back alongside him in the middle of the lineup, but this team just doesn't look to have the arms to overtake five teams in the AL wild-card chase.
Minnesota Twins (57-58)
6 of 10
Playoff Odds: 30-1
Current Standing: 12.0 GB in AL Central, 3.0 GB in AL Wild Card
Recent Performance: 4-9 in August, 8-18 in second half
Outlook
The Minnesota Twins entered the All-Star break as one of the biggest surprises in baseball. Their 49-40 record was the second-best mark in the American League, and a vastly improved pitching staff had them looking like a legitimate contender.
However, it's been a rough month since.
Their 8-18 record in the second half is the worst in the AL. They had a minus-53 run differential during that span, and the wheels have fallen off for the pitching staff as it's posted an AL-worst 5.67 ERA.
An upcoming 10-game road trip against the New York Yankees, Baltimore Orioles and Tampa Bay Rays might be enough to officially sink what looked like the surprise team of 2015 only a short while ago.
San Francisco Giants (62-53)
7 of 10
Playoff Odds: 2-1
Current Standing: 2.5 GB in NL West, 4.5 GB in NL Wild Card
Recent Performance: 6-7 in August, 16-10 in second half
Outlook
Through their first 115 games last year, the San Francisco Giants had a nearly identical 63-52 record.
That gave them the No. 1 spot in the NL wild-card standings in 2014, but in 2015, they find themselves 4.5 games behind a Chicago Cubs team that recently swept them for the No. 2 spot.
While the team as a whole has pitched to a terrific 3.31 ERA in the second half, questions remain about the starting rotation behind the trio of Madison Bumgarner, Chris Heston and Jake Peavy.
A red-hot Buster Posey (.380/.412/.500 in the second half) has certainly helped on the offensive side of things, and in a close race, this is a core group that has plenty of big-game experience on its side.
The schedule won't be kind to the Giants, though, as they start a 16-game stretch next week against teams that are currently in the playoff picture.
Tampa Bay Rays (58-57)
8 of 10
Playoff Odds: 5-1
Current Standing: 5.5 GB in AL East, 2.0 GB in AL Wild Card
Recent Performance: 7-4 in August, 12-12 in second half
Outlook
They may not scare people on paper, but the Tampa Bay Rays continue to find ways to stay relevant despite their significant payroll restrictions.
Unheralded names like Kevin Kiermaier (4.9 WAR), Logan Forsythe (4.0 WAR) and Nate Karns (1.8 WAR) rank among the most valuable players on the team, and a pitching staff that was decimated by injury sits fourth in the American League with a 3.59 ERA.
At 7-3 in their last 10 games, the Rays climbed to within two games of a wild-card spot, and with Drew Smyly reportedly returning Sunday from a torn labrum, the rotation could be in for a shot in the arm.
The Rays have their work cut out for them if they hope to overtake the New York Yankees, Toronto Blue Jays, Houston Astros or Los Angeles Angels, but stranger things have happened.
Texas Rangers (57-57)
9 of 10
Playoff Odds: 18-1
Current Standing: 5.0 GB in AL West, 2.5 GB in AL Wild Card
Recent Performance: 7-5 in August, 15-11 in second half
Outlook
The Texas Rangers pulled off the blockbuster deal to acquire Cole Hamels with an eye on 2016 and beyond when pairing him with a healthy Yu Darvish, which should make for a formidable rotation.
However, they're by no means out of the playoff hunt in 2015.
Hamels has actually not pitched all that well since joining the team, posting a 5.93 ERA in his two starts, and the rotation as a whole has a 5.45 ERA (28th in MLB) since the All-Star break.
Yet somehow they've managed to go 15-11, as the offense is hitting an MLB-best .281 and averaging 5.27 runs per game during that span.
If they can keep hitting anywhere close to the way they have the past month and the starting rotation can pitch like it's capable of, things could get interesting for the Rangers down the stretch.
Washington Nationals (58-57)
10 of 10
Playoff Odds: 4-1
Current Standing: 4.5 GB in NL East, 8.5 GB in NL Wild Card
Recent Performance: 4-10 in August, 10-18 in second half
Outlook
Outside of the Minnesota Twins, no team on this list is trending downward more right now than the Washington Nationals.
Pegged by some as a potential juggernaut after the signing of Max Scherzer, the team has instead dealt with injuries and disappointing performances up and down the roster.
They looked like the team everyone expected them to be during a 20-5 stretch early in the season, and they carried a two-game lead over the New York Mets into the All-Star break.
However, with the Mets coming on strong, the Nationals may have to turn their attention to catching the Chicago Cubs and San Francisco Giants in the hunt for the No. 2 wild-card spot.
The Nationals do have a lot of games left against non-contenders in the Miami Marlins (10), Atlanta Braves (seven), Philadelphia Phillies (six), Colorado Rockies (three), Milwaukee Brewers (three), San Diego Padres (three) and Cincinnati Reds (one), so the schedule is certainly in their favor.
All stats and schedule information courtesy of Baseball-Reference, unless otherwise noted.
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