Mayweather vs. Berto Fight Odds, TV Coverage, Prize Money and Prediction
Upsets are what keep sports fans coming back.
After all, if the favorite won every single time, there would be no drama, and the thrill of victory would be gone. Floyd "Money" Mayweather Jr. (48-0, 26 KO) may be an overwhelming favorite on paper against Andre Berto (30-3, 23 KO) when they both take the ring Saturday night at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas, but the fight won’t be held on paper.
Perhaps Berto will be the first one to hand Mayweather a loss since Manny Pacquiao failed to do so when finally given the chance. An upset probably won’t happen, but even the slight chance of the unthinkable will have boxing fans tuning in from the opening bell.
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Here is a look at the essential information for the bout:
Odds (via Odds Shark)
Mayweather is listed as a -3000 favorite, while Berto is +1100. To put those numbers in a different context, you would have to wager $3,000 on Mayweather just to get $100 back.
There is some good news for Berto in his quest to pull off the upset. Roberta Vinci was getting 12-1 odds against Serena Williams in the U.S. Open women's semifinal Friday, per Greg Garber of ESPN.com, but wound up shocking the world.
Sometimes, there are moments in sports that don't follow the script. Berto ending Mayweather's perfect record would certainly not fit the ending that 99.9 percent of the world is expecting.
TV Coverage and Prize Money
The fight takes place Saturday, Sept. 12 and will air on Showtime pay-per-view. Coverage begins at 8 p.m. ET and 5 p.m. PT, per Showtime’s official website.
This is actually the final fight in a six-bout deal that Mayweather signed with Showtime/CBS, which has fueled discussion about the possibility that Money will retire after what figures to be his 49th victory. Mayweather even said himself in the aftermath of his victory over Pacquiao that he would fight just one more time in September and then retire.
As is the case in all fights involving Mayweather, he's going to come out far ahead of his opponent in terms of paycheck. According to ESPN.com's Darren Rovell, Mayweather has a guaranteed $32 million purse and Berto will collect a career-best guarantee of $4 million.
One important note to remember about those figures is that they are almost certain to change because additional revenue through sponsors, ticket sales and PPV revenue have to be counted after the fact.
Prediction
It is easy to look at these two fighters, their overall strengths and their resumes and say Mayweather is going to easily win this fight. However, he will not do so in knockout fashion.
Money may be undefeated, but he only has one knockout in his last eight years of fighting, and that came in 2011 against Victor Ortiz. Most of those 26 career stoppages came in the early stages of his career, and he has developed into more of a technical fighter who relies on defense and adjustments in recent bouts.
Berto does have 23 knockouts in 30 career wins, but he is not going to knock out Mayweather. For one, Berto is only 3-3 in his last six fights and watched injuries derail what was once a promising career. He simply doesn’t have the overwhelming power he once did and won’t be able to connect on a strong enough punch against the deft Mayweather.
Anthony Riccobono of the International Business Times noted that even that Berto won his past two fights doesn’t inspire much hope for an upset, knockout or otherwise:
"Berto is coming off two straight wins, and he hasn’t lost in two years. But his victories over Josesito Lopez and the unknown Steve Upsher Chambers don’t inspire much confidence that he can give Mayweather much of a challenge. Berto’s last loss came at the hands of Jesus Soto Karass, who has 10 losses in his career.
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Another reason Mayweather will avoid any damaging knockout blows is his reach advantage.
According to BoxRec, Mayweather boasts a 72” reach compared to Berto’s 68.5”, which will make life even more difficult for the challenger. Money’s defense is already unparalleled as it is, and he will be able to keep Berto at bay with this advantage and avoid any significant uppercuts or knockout blows.
That is not to suggest Mayweather won’t do any damage with his offense. After all, he consistently throws perfectly placed punches throughout his fights from a number of angles, and the timing of his jabs is difficult to counter for even the best boxers in the world.
Mayweather hinted he will not shy away from contact, per Steve Carp of the Las Vegas Review-Journal: “I can guarantee you this fight's not going to be boring. If there's not a knockout, there's going to be a lot of knockdowns and there's going to be a lot of blood."
Mayweather may not shy away from contact when he is on the offensive, but his defense and ability to make mid-fight adjustments will also mean Berto will not connect on any significant blows.
Nobody avoids getting hit like Mayweather does, and he has built an entire second act to his legendary career by outlasting fighters with that defense and the ability to make adjustments. Combine that with his blinding speed and the deadly accuracy in which he throws his punches, and Berto doesn’t have much of a chance.
The technical precision, the foot speed, the consistent jabs that come when opponents least expect them and even the better reach numbers from Mayweather mean that these fighters are simply not in the same league.
That will show Saturday in Las Vegas.
Prediction: Mayweather by unanimous decision
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