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Predicting Every NFL Team's Biggest Bust of the 2026 NFL Season
NFL training camps will open in a couple of weeks. Before teams get back on the field, we should remember that some offseason acquisitions may not work out and highly drafted rookies could fall short of expectations.
Every year, first-round picks underperform in the pros. Big-ticket free agents struggle with new teams. Young veterans aren't able to find a breakthrough in a critical season.
Here are projections of which players will fit into all of the above situations, with the biggest bust for every team.
Although the "bust" label is usually reserved for draft picks, it also applies to veterans under the most pressure. The list below includes players who have signed new deals, are in battles for roster spots or face competition for snaps at their respective positions.
Arizona Cardinals: RB Tyler Allgeier
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The Arizona Cardinals buried Tyler Allgeier on their depth chart just a month after they signed him to a two-year, $12.25 million deal. With the No. 3 overall pick in the draft, Arizona selected Jeremiyah Love, who's set to make the most cash among running backs this year, per Spotrac.
Even if Love doesn't see the lion's share of touches out of the backfield, Arizona will likely be in catch-up mode for most of the campaign. If the Cardinals chase leads in most of their games, they'll have to rely on the passing game to keep pace with opponents, which would limit the ground attack.
Allgeier hasn't caught more than 18 passes in any of his four seasons. So, unless Arizona has leads to protect, he'll be an afterthought in the run game.
Atlanta Falcons: QB Michael Penix Jr.
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Michael Penix Jr. will compete with Tua Tagovailoa for the starting job in a crucial offseason that could change his career trajectory, but he's off to a slow start. The third-year signal-caller is still recovering from a partially torn ACL. The team didn't clear him for 11-on-11 drills during the spring.
By default, Tagovailoa has the upper hand in this battle heading into training camp. As the Falcons' starter from the previous two seasons, Penix doesn't have the advantage of being the incumbent under a new coaching staff.
By the start of the preseason, Tagovailoa may be in pole position for the lead role. Even if Penix wins the competition, his spotty 59.6 percent completion rate could eventually cost him the job. Tagovailoa has a career 68 percent completion rate.
Baltimore Ravens: S Jaylinn Hawkins
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Jaylinn Hawkins cashed in on his most productive season. Last year, with the New England Patriots, he logged 71 tackles (three for loss), six pass breakups and four interceptions. The Baltimore Ravens signed him to a two-year, $10 million deal.
Unlike the previous year with the Patriots, Hawkins won't be a full-time starter. He's behind two-time All-Pro Kyle Hamilton and 2025 first-rounder Malaki Starks on the depth chart.
All three safeties can line up in different spots in the secondary, but Hawkins will likely see a notable drop-off in his playing time from a 92 percent snap count in the previous campaign. He won't match his numbers from the 2025 term.
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Buffalo Bills: WR Keon Coleman
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Keon Coleman faces palpable pressure entering his third season. Head coach Joe Brady said he turned down trade offers for the wideout despite his recent struggles.
In 2025, the Bills benched Coleman and listed him as a healthy inactive for multiple games. Clearly, they expect more from the 2024 second-rounder and still believe he can make a significant developmental leap, but it's unlikely to happen this year.
The Bills traded a second-round pick to the Chicago Bears for wideout DJ Moore and a 2026 fifth-round pick. With that new addition, Coleman doesn't have a clear pathway to a big role in the passing attack.
Moore, slot wideout Khalil Shakir and tight end Dalton Kincaid will probably see most of the targets, which leaves few opportunities for any other pass-catcher to make a significant impact.
Carolina Panthers: QB Bryce Young
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According to The Athletic's Joseph Person, the Carolina Panthers aren't expected to sign Bryce Young to a multiyear extension.
The 24-year-old signal-caller made strides in the previous season, but the Panthers still finished 26th in total passing yards for the term.
Young will likely need to show that he can be a productive, high-volume passer when necessary this year, and that seems unlikely because of a tough schedule.
The Panthers won the NFC South with a sub-.500 record on a third-place schedule last year. In 2026, they will play on a first-place schedule that includes games against the Chicago Bears, Philadelphia Eagles, Denver Broncos and the Seattle Seahawks.
Young could regress as he faces more division leaders this year than last season.
Chicago Bears: C Garrett Bradbury
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A week after center Drew Dalman retired, the Chicago Bears traded a 2027 fifth-round pick to the New England Patriots for Garrett Bradbury. Then, Chicago selected center Logan Jones in the second round of the draft.
Don't be surprised if the Bears bench Bradbury for Jones at some point in the upcoming campaign because of the veteran's pass-protection issues. According to Pro Football Focus, Bradbury didn't surrender a sack but allowed 20 pressures over 642 pass-blocking snaps last season.
The Chicago Tribune's Sean Hammond believes Jones is the Bears' future at center. Well, the future at the position may play earlier than expected if Bradbury struggles to protect franchise quarterback Caleb Williams.
Cincinnati Bengals: S Bryan Cook
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Bryan Cook made our list of most overpaid players at each position because his new deal doesn't match his recent production. The fourth-year veteran's contract ranks fifth among safeties in cash this year.
In terms of cash, Cook will bank more money than some of the league's top or ascending ball-hawking safeties such as Jessie Bates III, Xavier McKinney and Coby Bryant. Kudos to his agent for closing the deal, but the Cincinnati Bengals overpaid for him.
In four seasons, Cook has recorded three interceptions and 15 pass breakups, and he's allowed passer ratings above 128 in coverage in three campaigns. The 26-year-old isn't going to move the needle on pass defense, which is what teams typically want out of high-paid safeties.
Cleveland Browns: OG Zion Johnson
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In four years with the Los Angeles Chargers, Zion Johnson struggled at both guard spots. He started his pro career at right guard and shifted to left guard for the following three terms. Last offseason, the Chargers experimented with him at center, but he didn't fare well there either.
The Cleveland Browns signed Johnson to a three-year, $49.5 million contract, and he's expected to start at guard. Clearly, the Browns believe they can put the former first-rounder in a better position to succeed, but that seems like a tough task based on the interior offensive lineman's subpar track record.
Dallas Cowboys: S Jalen Thompson
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The Dallas Cowboys revamped their secondary with several additions. They signed Jalen Thompson to a three-year, $33 million contract, which is a bit rich for a safety with minimal ball production and subpar coverage metrics over the last two seasons.
Thompson hasn't recorded an interception since the 2023 campaign. Though he's registered nine pass breakups in that time frame, the seven-year veteran also allowed passer ratings above 102.
Thompson logged seven of his nine career interceptions in two seasons (2021 and 2023). He lacks playmaking consistency and could be a free-agent disappointment.
Denver Broncos: RB RJ Harvey
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As a rookie, RJ Harvey racked up 896 scrimmage yards and totaled 12 touchdowns. The Denver Broncos don't seem eager to feature him in an expanded role, though. They re-signed J.K. Dobbins and selected Jonah Coleman in the fourth round of this year's draft.
Expect Dobbins to maintain an early-down role. Harvey may share pass-catching opportunities with Coleman.
According to The Denver Post's Luca Evans, Coleman was heavily involved in the passing game during the spring. The Broncos beat reporter believes the rookie will "probably" see the field right away, which doesn't bode well for Harvey's second-year outlook.
As a collegian, Coleman caught 87 passes for 838 yards and three touchdowns. He's equipped to eat into Harvey's role on obvious passing downs.
Detroit Lions: G Christian Mahogany
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In two seasons, Christian Mahogany has started in 12 out of 18 games. He appeared in a lead role at left guard for 11 contests last year, but the third-year pro didn't do enough to guarantee his spot for the upcoming campaign.
Head coach Dan Campbell told reporters (h/t Pride of Detroit's Jeremy Reisman) that the left guard spot is open for competition, which is why the team signed Ben Bartch.
According to Pro Football Focus, Mahogany allowed six sacks over 407 pass-blocking snaps. Because of his subpar pass protection, the Lions could make a change at left guard.
Green Bay Packers: DT Javon Hargrave
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The Green Bay Packers signed Javon Hargrave to a two-year, $23 million deal, which would've been a solid signing three years ago. Over the last two seasons, the 33-year-old defensive tackle has missed 15 games and played only 53 percent of the Minnesota Vikings' defensive snaps last season.
The Packers grossly overpaid for a player they had seen twice the previous season. Green Bay filled a need by signing Hargrave, but he's well past his prime and has had minimal impact on the pass rush since his 2023 Pro Bowl campaign.
Over the last two terms, Hargrave has registered just 4.5 sacks and 13 pressures.
Houston Texans: DL Logan Hall
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The Houston Texans have a loaded defensive unit on all three levels. So, newcomers without a strong resume could struggle to earn playing time. Logan Hall falls into that category.
After logging 28 tackles (six for loss), 10 pressures and 5.5 sacks in 2024, Hall followed up with 39 tackles (two for loss), 10 pressures and 1.5 sacks last season. The Texans signed him to a two-year, $13.8 million deal.
Houston selected defensive tackle Kayden McDonald in the second round of this year's draft. Behind Sheldon Rankins and Tommy Togiai, and with a high-upside rookie in the second unit, Hall could play fewer than 51 percent of the defensive snaps in a season for the first time since his 2022 rookie campaign.
Indianapolis Colts: QB Daniel Jones
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One can make the case that quarterback Daniel Jones played at his best with the Indianapolis Colts last season before he tore his Achilles in December. The 29-year-old signal-caller threw for 3,101 yards, 19 touchdowns and eight interceptions with a career-high 68 percent completion rate.
However, Jones has yet to play at a high level in consecutive seasons because of injuries or poor performance. After he led the New York Giants to the playoffs in 2022, he threw for just 909 yards, two touchdowns and six interceptions in six outings in the following term. Then, Big Blue benched him in 2024.
The Colts will be disappointed with what they get from Jones coming off an injury. Indianapolis signed him to a two-year, $88 million extension in March.
Jacksonville Jaguars: TE Nate Boerkircher
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At 6'5", 245 pounds, Nate Boerkircher is primarily a blocking tight end who only caught 38 passes for 417 yards and four touchdowns in five collegiate terms. The Jacksonville Jaguars selected him as their first draft pick, in the second round.
Perhaps the Jaguars plan to employ a run-heavy game plan in 2026 and cut down on pass-catching tight end Brenton Strange's 75 percent snap count from the previous season.
Still, under head coach Liam Coen, the Jaguars tied for 25th across the league in fielding multiple tight-end sets last season, per Sharp Football Stats.
After losing running back Travis Etienne Jr. in free agency, it would be a surprise if Boerkircher is featured in a ground attack led by Bhayshul Tuten, Chris Rodriguez Jr. and LeQuint Allen Jr.
Kansas City Chiefs: S Alohi Gilman
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As one of their key free-agent signings, the Kansas City Chiefs inked Alohi Gilman to a three-year, $24 million deal. The Chiefs may quickly regret this move as they look for a midseason replacement at safety.
In four out of six seasons, Gilman has allowed a passer rating of 104 or higher. In all but one campaign, he's missed 11 percent of his tackle attempts. If the coaching staff can't rely on him in coverage or run support, expect a quick hook for a backup.
Gilman will receive $7.5 million of his $14.5 million in guaranteed money next year. So, Kansas City may carry him on the roster for at least two years regardless of his performance in 2026.
Las Vegas Raiders: WR Jack Bech
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Don't get your hopes up for a Jack Bech breakout year. According to Locked On Raiders podcast host Q Myers, the second-year wideout "really has not popped yet."
Bech's quiet offseason isn't the only concern regarding his development. Even within a Raiders' wide receiver unit that lacks star power, he may be third on the depth chart.
According to ESPN's Ryan McFadden, new Raiders head coach Klint Kubiak called fourth-year pro Tre Tucker a "quiet leader" in the receiver room. Las Vegas signed Jalen Nailor to a three-year, $35 million deal.
If Nailor and Tucker take on big roles in the passing game, Bech may see limited playing time, especially if the team fields a high rate of two-tight-end sets with All-Pro Brock Bowers and Michael Mayer.
Los Angeles Chargers: G Cole Strange
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During free agency, the Los Angeles Chargers lost a below-average guard, Zion Johnson, and signed another subpar guard, Cole Strange. The latter's shaky pass protection may cost him his starting job this year.
According to Pro Football Focus, Strange allowed 21 pressures and two sacks over 451 pass-blocking snaps.
In 2022, the New England Patriots overdrafted Strange in the first round. This offseason, the Chargers overpaid him on a two-year, $13 million deal. He may hold on to his job only to keep fellow disappointing 2022 first-rounder Trevor Penning on the sideline.
Los Angeles Rams: TE Colby Parkinson
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Rookie first-rounder Ty Simpson isn't expected to start with Matthew Stafford at the helm, so he's not a true bust candidate despite his draft status. Colby Parkinson is coming off his most productive campaign, though he's unlikely to match his receiving numbers from the 2025 season.
Last year, Parkinson caught 43 passes for 408 yards and eight touchdowns, all career-high marks. Don't expect him to lead the Rams' tight end room in the upcoming term, though.
Los Angeles selected tight end Max Klare in the second round of the 2026 draft. The Athletic's Nate Atkins believes the Rams want the 2025 second-rounder Terrance Ferguson to "take the lead" in the tight end room.
With two second-rounders behind Parkinson on the depth chart, he'll likely cede a significant number of snaps to both in a contract year.
Miami Dolphins: QB Malik Willis
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Malik Willis isn't set up to flourish on a rebuilding squad with arguably the league's worst pass-catching group. The Miami Dolphins are heading into training camp with Jalen Tolbert, Malik Washington and Tutu Atwell as their top three wideouts. None of the aforementioned receivers has caught more than 49 passes in a season.
According to ESPN's Marcel Louis-Jacques, Willis has built a rapport with Greg Dulcich. Yet if his top pass-catcher is a fifth-year tight end who had his best year as a rookie, that's not a good sign.
Because of a below-average supporting cast, Willis will underperform on a three-year, $67.5 million deal.
Minnesota Vikings: DT Caleb Banks
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According to The Athletic's Dane Brugler, Caleb Banks broke his foot at the NFL Scouting Combine and was expected to be out until June. ESPN's Pete Thamel reported that teams received a letter with confirmation of that recovery timeline.
The Minnesota Vikings selected Banks with the No. 18 overall pick in the draft, and he's yet to participate in practice. Head coach Kevin O'Connell expects the 6'6", 327-pound defensive tackle to be ready for training camp (h/t ESPN's Kevin Seifert).
Even if Banks is on the practice field in a couple of weeks, the Vikings probably won't ramp him up to full speed right away. After missing spring practices, the rookie first-rounder may see limited reps, which may delay his start to the season and push for a prominent role on the defensive line.
New England Patriots: OT Caleb Lomu
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The New England Patriots have sent out mixed signals about their left tackle situation. On the one hand, head coach Mike Vrabel wants to keep Will Campbell in that spot after his abysmal Super Bowl performance. Yet the Patriots selected a two-year starting left tackle, Caleb Lomu, with the No. 28 overall pick in the draft.
So, if Campbell and right tackle Morgan Moses are healthy, Lomu won't see the field. He doesn't have notable experience at guard and didn't take reps on the interior during the spring.
Unless New England changes its tune about Campbell's status as a starter, Lomu will be a wasted pick for at least this year.
New Orleans Saints: TE Juwan Johnson
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Last season, Juwan Johnson logged career highs in multiple receiving categories, hauling in 77 passes for 889 yards and three touchdowns. He may not come close to matching those numbers this year.
The Saints selected wide receivers Jordyn Tyson and Bryce Lance in the first and fourth rounds of this year's draft, respectively. They also added a couple of tight ends in Noah Fant and third-rounder Oscar Delp.
While Delp may need time to develop, Fant could carve out a role in the passing game and eat into Johnson's playing time. The veteran newcomer has 334 receptions for 3,593 yards and 18 touchdowns.
New York Giants: CB Greg Newsome II
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The New York Giants signed Greg Newsome II to a one-year, $8 million deal. Big Blue should've used that cap space on another free-agent cornerback or a position of need.
After three years of solid coverage with the Cleveland Browns, Newsome has struggled as a pass defender. Over the last two seasons, he's allowed nine touchdowns and passer ratings above 100.
It's worth noting that Cleveland traded Newsome to the Jacksonville Jaguars last October. He gave up five touchdowns and allowed a 107.5 passer rating in 12 outings with the Jaguars. If he doesn't break out of a coverage funk, the Giants will have their newly signed $8 million cornerback on the sideline for most of the season.
New York Jets: TE Kenyon Sadiq
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The New York Jets made a somewhat puzzling selection with their second pick in the first round. They took Kenyon Sadiq, who plays a position that's typically tough for rookies transitioning to the pros. Brock Bowers is an anomaly. All-Pro Trey McBride only caught 29 passes for 265 yards and a touchdown in his first season.
In addition to Sadiq's adjustment to the pro game, he'll split time with second-year tight end Mason Taylor, who recorded a team-leading 44 catches for 369 yards and a touchdown last season.
Sadiq may emerge as a primary target in two or so years, but he could be behind Garrett Wilson, Adonai Mitchell, fellow rookie Omar Cooper Jr. and Taylor in the Jets' pass-catching pecking order for the 2026 campaign.
Also, keep in mind Sadiq underwent a procedure for hernia repair and didn't practice in the spring.
Philadelphia Eagles: Nolan Smith Jr.
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The Philadelphia Eagles picked up the fifth-year option in Nolan Smith Jr.'s contract, and that may be a mistake. They have another year before that $13.8 million option year kicks in, but the 25-year-old hasn't shown promising signs of meeting heightened expectations that come with a pay raise.
In three seasons, Smith has recorded 91 tackles (10 for loss), 10.5 sacks and 33 pressures. For a recent first-rounder, he's posted modest pass-rushing numbers. Moreover, he has started in 22 out of 45 games with defensive snap counts below 58 percent in each of his three seasons.
The Eagles acquired established veteran starting edge-rusher Jonathan Greenard from the Minnesota Vikings. Jalyx Hunt, a 2024 third-rounder, made a second-year leap, registering 52 tackles (nine for loss), 6.5 sacks, 29 pressures and three interceptions (returning one for a touchdown).
Greenard and Hunt may be far more impactful than Smith on the edge in 2026.
Pittsburgh Steelers: LB Payton Wilson
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Payton Wilson is headed into a crucial year for his development. In 2025, he logged a team-leading 126 tackles (six for loss), two sacks, two pass breakups and an interception across 17 games (four starts).
Wilson has shown the traits to earn a two-down role in run support, but he must show improvement in pass coverage for a true breakout year.
Although Wilson stood out as a tackling machine, he struggled in coverage, allowing two touchdowns and a 104.7 passer rating. With Patrick Queen's inconsistencies as a cover defender, the Steelers need a reliable linebacker on obvious passing downs.
Wilson's time on the field could be limited because of lapses in coverage.
San Francisco 49ers: WR Ricky Pearsall
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Following the 2026 season, the San Francisco 49ers must decide on the fifth-year option in Ricky Pearsall's contract. At this point, they would probably decline it because of his modest production and spotty availability last season.
In 2025, Pearsall caught 36 passes for 528 scoreless yards. Even without Brandon Aiyuk for an entire season, the 2024 first-rounder didn't take full advantage of increased opportunities in the aerial attack, partially due to injuries.
This offseason, the 49ers signed Mike Evans and Christian Kirk and selected De'Zhaun Stribling in the second round of the draft.
In his age-33 term, Evans can still command a significant target share. Kirk can see notable playing time as an inside-outside receiver. According to The Athletic's Matt Barrows, head coach Kyle Shanahan values Stribling's blocking ability. As a former first-round pick, Pearsall may be underwhelming again this year.
Seattle Seahawks: RB Jadarian Price
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The Seattle Seahawks selected Jadarian Price with the 32nd pick in this year's draft. He has a chance to fill a void in the backfield, following Kenneth Walker III's departure in free agency, while Zach Charbonnet recovers from a torn ACL.
Heading into training camp, Price may have to make up some ground on third-year pro George Holani to claim the lead role. According to ESPN's Brady Henderson, the latter had the "first crack" at the starting position during the spring.
Price has plenty of time to move up the depth chart, but he could be boxed between Holani getting the lion's share of the touches and Charbonnet's return from injury. The rookie first-rounder may produce modest numbers within a committee this year.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: LB SirVocea Dennis
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The Tampa Bay Buccaneers made a concerted effort to upgrade their linebacker unit. They signed Alex Anzalone and Christian Rozeboom and then selected Josiah Trotter in the second round of the draft.
Anzalone has started in 93 career games in nine seasons. Over the last two years, Rozeboom made 26 starts. Trotter comes to Tampa Bay oozing with potential, logging 176 tackles (17 for loss) 2.5 sacks, three pass breakups and an interception in his last two collegiate terms.
With those additions, SirVocea Dennis could lose one of the starting inside linebacker jobs before Week 1. As a first-time full-time starter in 2025, he logged 101 tackles (10 for loss), three sacks, five pass breakups and an interception but allowed a 122 passer rating in coverage.
Anzalone has been an above-average pass defender for most of his career. Rozeboom is decent in that regard and could get the edge over Dennis for a three-down role until Trotter is ready to crack the starting lineup.
Tennessee Titans: RB Tyjae Spears
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Tennessee Titans head coach Robert Saleh told reporters that Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears are the "bell cows" of the team, specifically on offense. Yet the latter hasn't shown he can handle that type of workload.
In three seasons, Spears has missed nine games and his rushing numbers have slightly dipped every year. He can handle a three-down role with his pass-catching ability, but the versatile tailback hasn't capitalized on his opportunities.
The Titans selected Nicholas Singleton in the fifth round of this year's draft. While he's not considered a big part of the backfield rotation, the 6'0", 219-pounder offers a downhill run style that's a better complement to Pollard's skill set than Spears' capabilities.
Washington Commanders: S Nick Cross
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Nick Cross is a proven starter who's versatile but has glaring limitations. In four seasons with the Indianapolis Colts, he lined up in both safety spots and in the slot. The 2022 third-rounder started in every game over the last two campaigns.
With more playing time, Cross' lapses in coverage became apparent. Since 2024, he's given up nine touchdowns while allowing passer ratings above 99 in back-to-back terms.
The Washington Commanders needed a reliable coverage defender at safety in center field alongside Will Harris, who's allowed passer ratings above 105 in five out of seven seasons. On a new two-year, $13 million deal, Cross won't fill that role adequately.
College football statistics are provided by cfbstats.com.
Maurice Moton covers the NFL for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @MoeMoton.
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