World Cup 2026 Predictions for Winners for Every Group amid Projected Odds

Joe TanseyJun 8, 2026

Heavy favorites are littered across the 12 four-team groups for the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

Eight of the 12 group favorites carry odds of -200 or higher, including Spain, Germany and Brazil.

The United States men's national team is the only group favorite with plus-money odds. That's such an intriguing bet to make since the Americans will be playing on home soil.

Finding a good plus-money bet on a group winner is difficult because there aren't many challenging groups with the field expanded to 48 teams.

However, there is one Europe-versus-South America battle that could end up in the underdog's favor.

Group D

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Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

USA (+130; bet $100 to win $130)

Turkiye (+175)

Paraguay (+400)

Australia (+800)

The United States men's national team is the only group favorite to sit at plus-money.

That's a little concerning if you're looking for positive signs about how far Mauricio Pochettino's side will advance on home soil.

The USMNT and Turkiye are only separated by five positions in the FIFA men's world rankings. Turkiye hasn't qualified for a World Cup since its magical third-place run in 2002.

Turkiye did make the quarterfinals at the last European Championships with a handful of key figures on the current roster, including Inter's Hakan Calhanoglu and Fenerbahce's Kerem Akturkoglu.

Real Madrid teenager Arda Guler is the playmaker for the European side. He could cause some damage in the USMNT back line.

The good news for the Americans is that center-back Chris Richards has extra time to heal before the showdown with Turkiye on Matchday 3.

You have to assume the Americans will be supercharged with emotion on home soil in Friday's opener against Paraguay and earn three points.

Australia is viewed as the weakest team in Group D. The Americans should pick up three points from Matchday 2.

The assumption is that Group D comes down to the U.S.-Turkiye clash on Matchday 3. The Turks beat the Americans 2-1 last June behind goals from Guler and Akturkoglu. Most of the top American attackers were not in the squad for that game, though.

With Christian Pulisic, Folarin Balogun, Weston McKennie and others on the field, the USMNT is either at an equal talent level, or higher, in comparison to Turkiye's top players.

The home-field advantage could be a real difference-maker for the Americans in a tight game.

All but one of the World Cup hosts dating back to 2002 earned at least four points in group play. That's the bare minimum expectation for the Americans, but in reality, they should record six or seven points and capture the group on home soil.

Prediction: 1. USMNT, 2. Turkiye, 3. Australia, 4. Paraguay

Group K

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Jordan v Colombia - International Friendly

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Portugal (-210; bet $210 to win $100)

Colombia (+200)

DR Congo (+2000)

Uzbekistan (+2700)

You'd be hard pressed to find a better group game than Portugal-Colombia.

The Cristiano Ronaldo-led Portugal is ranked fifth in the world and is viewed as one of the favorites to win the World Cup.

Colombia comes in with a No. 13 ranking and one of the best in-form attackers in the world in Bayern Munich's Luis Diaz. Diaz had 15 goals and 14 assists for the German champions.

Colombia scored 28 goals in 18 World Cup qualification games. Only Argentina outscored Los Cafeteros in South America.

Colombia beat Brazil and Argentina at home, tied with Argentina in Buenos Aires and lost by one to Brazil during qualification.

Portugal has a real fight on its hands on Matchday 3 in Miami. First place in Group K comes with a reward. A third-place team awaits the Group K winner in the round of 32. Then, the Group B winner, either Canada or Switzerland, is on deck in the round of 16.

Portugal needs to figure out how to not be entirely reliant on Ronaldo. It suffered disappointing exits at the quarterfinal or prior in each of its last three major tournaments.

Bruno Fernandes is more of a creator than a pure scorer, while Joao Felix has just 12 goals in 54 international appearances. Goncalo Ramos, who has 10 goals in 24 caps, is the best non-Ronaldo scoring option.

Colombia will rely heavily on Diaz, but it also should have some sort of home-field advantage in Miami. Another attacker does need to step up alongside Diaz to threaten a strong Portuguese defense, but it does have the quality to at least force a draw.

Scoring ability will be massive for both Colombia and Portugal in their first two Group K games against DR Congo and Uzbekistan. Goal differential is the first tiebreaker if the teams are tied on seven points.

Colombia's excellent record in qualification suggests it can run up the score and outpace Portugal over two games, in case the tiebreaker is needed to determine the Group K winner.

Prediction: 1. Colombia, 2. Portugal, 3. DR Congo, 4. Uzbekistan

Group F

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Holland v Algeria -International Friendly

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Netherlands (-125)

Japan (+270)

Sweden (+440)

Tunisia (+1300)

The Netherlands feel like an undervalued team at -125 to win Group F given their stature as the No. 8 team in the FIFA world rankings.

The Oranje will be without the injured Xavi Simons, one of the best attacking midfielders in the world, but there's still plenty of quality in the attacking third.

Cody Gakpo and Memphis Depay are the mainstay scorers for the Dutch, but keep an eye on Donyell Malen, who had a double-digit scoring campaign at Roma.

The Dutch defense is as strong as they come with Virgil Van Dijk leading the line. They allowed four goals during their eight-game UEFA qualification campaign. They also held France scoreless and reached the UEFA Euro 2024 semifinals by conceding one goal in the round of 16 and quarterfinals.

Japan had an equally as impressive finish to qualification with a +27 goal differential in the third stage of AFC qualifying.

But the Blue Samurai drew with Mexico and Paraguay, lost to the United States as part of their World Cup preparations last fall.

Sweden is the potential dark-horse in Group F because it has Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyokeres up top, but it hasn't kept a clean sheet in 12 months.

If the Dutch find the perfect combination in attack, they should easily take Group F and be in a good spot to make a deep run in the knockout round.

Prediction: 1. Netherlands, 2. Japan, 3. Sweden, 4. Tunisia