Buying or Selling Top Contenders for College Football Playoff in 2026
All you need is a chance.
Though the size of the College Football Playoff—both now and in the future—is a source of disagreements, the fact is a dozen programs will have an opportunity to win a national championship in 2026.
Miami jumped out as a prime reminder last season, sneaking into the 12-team CFP field and ending as the national runner-up.
All the Hurricanes needed was a chance.
So, four months from the start of the campaign, which top programs do we think will ultimately earn a place in the bracket? And will any of them flame out like Clemson, Florida, Penn State and South Carolina did last year?
The teams included hold odds of +3500 or shorter, according to FanDuel.
Big Ten, SEC Chasers
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USC Trojans (+3500): Sell
Michigan Wolverines (+3300): Sell
The story is similar for USC and Michigan, which return their quarterback, a healthy number of core contributors and landed some impact-level transfers. But their schedules are also incredibly difficult. Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon and Penn State sit on both dockets, along with Washington for USC and then Oklahoma and Iowa for Michigan. If you're seeing 10-2 or better for either one, good luck.
Oklahoma Sooners (+2700): Buy
The defense should be fantastic again, and the offense—led by a healthy John Mateer—is loaded with experience. The argument in favor of OU isn't a difficult one. However, the Sooners can hardly afford an 0-3 run against Michigan, Georgia and Texas in the first handful of games. It's possible OU could recover and sneak into the CFP at 9-3, but that's certainly not an ideal path.
Texas Tech Red Raiders (+2500): Buy
Whether the reigning Big 12 champions have Brendan Sorsby leading the offense is still in question. Texas Tech, nevertheless, has a well-built roster that can handle a drop in QB performance. If Sorsby is ruled ineligible, I won't consider the Red Raiders a national title contender. To make the CFP, though? Sure.
SEC Wild Cards
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Alabama Crimson Tide (+2200): Buy
Given the depth of the conference, Alabama's schedule is about as friendly as you could want. That doesn't mean it's easy—a four-game stretch of Georgia, at Tennessee, Texas A&M and at LSU clearly is a challenge—but a 2-2 record in those matchups would leave Bama in position to chase a CFP berth. Pick the correct QB in fall camp, and the Crimson Tide can finish 10-2.
Ole Miss Rebels (+2200): Sell, but...
In short, I think the Rebels fall frustratingly short of the CFP. Simultaneously, the value of an elite quarterback is unmistakable. Trinidad Chambliss is the necessary piece of an argument in favor of Ole Miss returning to the Playoff. His availability is critical for the Rebels with a slate including Louisville, LSU, at Florida, at Texas, Georgia and at Oklahoma on the horizon.
LSU Tigers (+2000): Sell
This is not an "another 7-6 season" kind of sell. Rather, it's more a reflection of buying two other programs in this particular tier—all of which take on LSU, in addition to Texas and Tennessee. The offensive line, though rebuilt, is a major area of concern for Lane Kiffin's debut season. Think "narrow miss" for LSU.
Texas A&M Aggies (+1800): Buy, but...
Can someone craft an argument to talk me out of Texas A&M? My gut feelings are again in that "narrow miss" range, yet most everything on paper—coaching, experienced QB, solid receiving corps, good defense, impact transfers and so on—leads to a positive forecast for A&M.
Respected Threats
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Miami Hurricanes (+1200): Buy
As long as a revamped offensive line holds up and Darian Mensah is healthy, Miami essentially has no excuse to not reach the CFP. The road schedule is against Stanford, Wake Forest, Clemson, North Carolina and Notre Dame. None of Georgia Tech, Louisville or SMU—all recent setbacks for the 'Canes—are on the slate. Even if Miami loses at ND, an 11-1 record is plausible.
Georgia Bulldogs (+900): Buy
Heading into 2026, the program has claimed a top-nine position in nine consecutive final CFP rankings. In other words, had a 12-team CFP existed since 2017, the Dawgs would've been included every time. So, yeah, I'll buy UGA.
Oregon Ducks (+800): Buy
Back-to-back implosions in the CFP have heightened doubts, fair or not, of what Oregon may accomplish during the postseason. As for getting there, however, that is hardly an issue. The return of QB Dante Moore plus an overwhelming defensive front is a great foundation for the Ducks.
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The Favorites
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Texas Longhorns (+750): Buy
Indiana Hoosiers (+750): Buy
Notre Dame Fighting Irish (+650): Buy
Ohio State Buckeyes (+550): Buy
In reality, at least one of these programs will probably tumble out of the CFP picture. It happened to Penn State and Texas last season, and there are many other examples from previous years.
Favorites are favorites for good reason, though.
Texas and Ohio State are staring at the most difficult schedules of the group, and their offensive lines are both questionable. However, the skill-position talent surrounding Arch Manning and Julian Sayin, respectively, is electric.
Notre Dame's slate is friendlier, the defense should be stellar and the offense has high potential behind CJ Carr.
My greatest hesitation is with Indiana, considering the amount of production lost—even beyond Heisman Trophy-winning QB Fernando Mendoza. But the idea of loudly not trusting Curt Cignetti? Pretty dangerous, I would say!
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
