4 Ways Sean Strickland Can Upset Khamzat Chimaev at UFC 328

This Saturday, in the main event of UFC 328, Sean Strickland will attempt to reclaim the promotion's middleweight title. His opposition will be unbeaten champion Khamzat Chimaev, a suffocating and powerful wrestler, and one of the most dominant forces in the sport today. There are not a lot of people who believe he can pull it off — and that's putting lightly.

That being said, Strickland does posses some tools that could prove useful against an opponent like Chimaev, and with the right game plan, it's certainly possible he can spring the upset, and reclaim the belt he first won from Israel Adesanya in 2024.

Here are four things Strickland can do to better his chances of pulling off the win this weekend.

Weather the Storm

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Weathering Chimaev's initial assault is arguably the most important thing Strickland will need to do in this fight. The champion is a notoriously fast starter. In his middleweight title-winning defeat of Dricus Du Plessis, he succeeded on his first takedown just moments into the opening round, and that was also true in his fight with Robert Whittaker, who he choked out in under four minutes. Strickland will almost certainly need to survive a similar early onslaught. That doesn't necessarily mean stopping Chimaev's first takedowns. That will be a very tall order while the champion is fresh. What it really means is that he needs to stay calm if the fight hits the ground early, maintain positional awareness, and do whatever he can to get back his feet — probably multiple times.

If Strickland can do this, and survive the first round or two, there's a good chance Chimaev will start to slow down a bit. At that point, his takedown attempts will become a little more labored, giving Strickland some extra bandwidth to focus on offense, rather than defense.

Deter the Takedown

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Even if Strickland survives Chimaev's early onslaught, he's still going to be in trouble. Against Du Plessis, the champion proved that he can keep a pretty high pace for five rounds, even if he starts to slow down a bit. That means Strickland will need to be worried about takedowns for the duration of the fight.

One way he might be able to deter Chimaev's takedown attempts is with well-timed counters, specifically, knees and uppercuts, right down the middle. If he punish the oncoming champion with a few well-timed strikes, it could theoretically make him more reluctant to shoot at all. That will result in the two fighters spending a little more time on the feet, where Strickland seemingly has his best chances of victory.

Strickland's jab and teep — arguably his best weapons — could also be useful as he keeps the hard-charging champion at a safe distance. However, Chimaev shoots for takedowns from so far away that even these long-range weapons may be ineffective. Because of that, the best thing he can really do is try to sting the champion every time he gets close.

Never Stop Attacking

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Khamzat Chimaev has proven he is capable of scoring quick and brutal finishes in the Octagon. His 2024 win over Whittaker is obviously the best example of this. That being said, he's also been somewhat conservative in other fights, notably his recent win over Du Plessis. While that was an utterly dominant victory, marked by over 21 minutes of control time, he threw less than 30 significant strikes overall. If he employs a similar strategy at UFC 328, it's going to create an opportunity for Strickland.

While it is very hard to win a fight from bottom position, Strickland could theoretically steal some rounds from the champion, even if he's spending prolonged periods on his back. He could do this by throwing elbows, punches, and even attempting submissions from the bottom. Think prime Carlos Condit here.

Again, this strategy isn't going to win Strickland the fight on his own, but if he keeps his volume high — even when he's in bad positions — it could help narrow the gap in an otherwise one-sided fight. If he's able to bloody the champion from the bottom, it will impress the judges even more.

Flip the Script

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Khamzat Chimaev may be a new champion in the UFC, but he has already developed an aura like a prime Anderson Silva, in that he seems to have many opponents beaten before they ever get into the cage together. People expect relentless takedowns and suffocating top control. People expect non-stop aggression. People expect him to win.

While one would certainly hope Strickland and his team have done some tape study on Chimaev, he needs to fight like he doesn't know anything about the champion. If he starts to fixate on what Chimaev will do, and how to defend his takedowns, and how to get back to his feet when he's grounded, it's going to completely deprive him of the opportunity to implement his own game plan, and play to his own strengths.

Things will go far better for him if he gives Chimaev less respect than we're used to, and takes the fight to the champion from the opening bell. That means walking forward, putting him on his back foot to make takedowns more difficult, and ideally, hurting him as early and as often as possible. While Strickland is hardly a power puncher, his recent win over Anthony Hernandez was a reminder that he does have a little bit of pepper in his hands, and it's in his best interest to bring that to Chimaev's attention early. Even if he can't knock Chimaev out in the opening rounds, it will hopefully throw the champion off his game enough to create openings later in the fight.

Remember how he hurt Israel Adesanya in the opening round of their fight? If he can repeat that feat against the new champ, he might just find a way to win.