Buffalo Bills Breakdown, Week One: The New England Patriots

If you've been searching for an in-depth, detailed preview of tonight's game, look no further—Buffalo Bills Breakdown is exactly what you've been looking for...

It's here. Finally, tonight we can sit back and watch the Buffalo Bills in meaningful action. Monday Night Football is the biggest and brightest stage, and opening a season on national television has generated an electric buzz in Western New York today, even if everyone's Bills play in Foxboro on the night Tom Brady returns to the NFL.

The Bills last beat the Patriots on the road in 2000, and the players are hungry to come out of Gillette Stadium victorious after being shut out at home by New England in Week 17 of last season.

The Bills are, as you may well imagine, underdogs and have received much criticism for their recent offensive modifications heading into their divisional showdown.

Here's the breakdown of tonight's game, which has a chance to be a great one.

Bills Advantages

Lee Evans vs. Leigh Bodden

The Patriots brought in Bodden from the Detroit Lions as their once veteran secondary of Randall Gay, Asante Samuel, and Ellis Hobbs became increasingly thin over the past two offseasons. Bodden began his career in Cleveland and racked up six INTs in 2007, but he is hardly a shutdown corner and was used sparingly this preseason.

Much has been made of the Terrell Owens-Shawn Springs matchup. Owens has owned the "rivalry," averaging nearly 90 yards and over one score a game, but as far as an advantage for either team, I just don't see it.

Evans is a polished route runner, and his speed makes him a coverage nightmare. He should see his first single coverage since the days of Eric Moulds—Evans will relish in the fact that Owens is now his teammate.

He's never performed great against the Patriots, but this is a new defense, and there'll be few times when double coverage is rolled his way. Look for Evans to have his biggest night in New England. 

Roscoe Parrish/Leodis McKelvin vs. Patriots coverage team

The Patriots were near the cellar of the league in terms of covering punts and kickoff last season, and as we all know, the Bills have excelled in that facet of the game for years.

In a game where the Bills could run into some issues on the offensive side of the ball, field position could keep Buffalo in the game.

Parrish and McKelvin are amongst the league's most dangerous duos on special teams, and if there's one area of the game the Bills are ready to feast on, it's with these two returning kicks.

Bills offense vs. Patriots' base 4-3 defense

I know you're thinking I'm crazy for favoring the Bills offense against a New England defense that's owned Buffalo of late, but the Bills have had their problems when facing the 3-4 alignment.

The trade of Richard Seymour to Oakland is big (eliminates a truly underrated yet ferocious edge rusher). The Patriots have stated their base defense will revert back to the 4-3.

Last season Trent Edwards and the offense went 1-8 against teams using the 3-4 and 6-1 against teams whose defensive foundation is the 4-3. Just a thought.

How the Bills win

First and foremost, forget the offensive line—they need to get to Tom Brady. We've seen that even the game's better quarterbacks (Jay Cutler, Jake Delhomme) can look bad when pressure's applied.

Remember Brady's last full ball game was against the Giants in the Super Bowl, and then-defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo brought the house as creatively as possible, throwing off the All-Pro's timing consistently.

Perry Fewell is known for his "sit back and wait" defense (seems like I bring that up in every article), but that will be completely ineffective in tonight's game. If Brady has time to throw, it'll be a near impossibility for the Bills secondary, as deep as it may be, to slow down the likes of Randy Moss and Wes Welker. Please blitz.

When I say blitz, I mean bring a variety of blitzes—zone blitzes, delayed blitzes, corner blitzes, stunt blitzes, anything to throw their wily line off balance. Look at what the Jets did to Matt Schaub and the Texans.

Equally, the Bills' line needs to hold its own after a week of being bashed by the media. I'm sure AVP has devised plays to hide the apparent weakness of the line. I'm not fully against the moves made, although the inexperience is hard to miss.

I'm in favor of the new toughness and agility the line boasts, and hopefully screens, quick slants, and bubble screens will be used to put the line's new attributes on display.

This could have easily been listed first: The Bills need to take shots down the field. Apparently the Bills call for deep balls frequently, but the protection is never good enough for the plays to develop. I don't believe it, and even if the plays are called, Trent Edwards needs to man up and get the balls deep to his playmakers, even when they aren't wide open.

Think about it—what are the outcomes of a deep pass down the field?

- Outcome No. 1 | The ball is caught, which is an obvious positive. It keeps the secondary on their heels throughout the contest.

- Outcome No. 2 | Pass interference. With Terrell Owens' ability to get the ball thrown long, you should see a lot of jockeying for position that could result in the big penalty.

- Outcome No. 3 | Pass incomplete. No big deal, it's not like the offense has been clicking already. At least it tells the defense they need to be ready on every play to backpedal deep, thus setting up comeback routes.

- Outcome No. 4 | Interception. Probably the least likely of the four. Also on a third down, it's essentially a punt, minus any return. Still reminds the defensive backfield of the Bills' downfield threats.

See what I mean? If the Bills want to stay in a game that most likely will be a high-scoring affair, they need to keep pace with Brady's well-oiled machine, not by checking down, but by going deep, a lot.

Lastly, and most critically, don't turn the ball over. Or at least win the turnover battle. If the Bills can keep the ball off the turf, they've got a shot.

Patriots Stat of the Week

I'm not big on looking at the past when talking about the future, especially with all the player turnover, but the Patriots have won 42 straight games when leading at halftime. If that's the case tonight, the Bills will really have the odds stacked against them.

Bills Stat of the Week

Fred Jackson ran for 136 yards in the Bills' last meeting with the Patriots. This was in a game where New England knew plenty of runs were coming. As Chris Brown of BuffaloBills.com has stated, the blocking wasn't great in that contest either.

Prediction: Bills 27, Patriots 24.

For a few reasons. I haven't yet seen a prediction, anywhere, that's given the Bills the slightest chance. I can't name a legitimate wide receiver on New England besides Moss and Welker, and Welker's banged up—though Joey Galloway may have a few more big plays in him (Julian Edelman and Sam Aiken do not count).

Lastly, chances are, after a few games, I'll be frustrated, so my optimism is at its height right now, so why not pick a Bills win.

What do you think? Either way, you've gotta be pumped.