8 Early Predictions for the 2026 MLB Trade Deadline
Major League Baseball's 2026 trade deadline is less than 100 days away, and it's never too early to start trying to figure out who might be going where during that ultimate swap meet.
Plenty will change between now and that August 3 finish line.
Just compare the current standings to the playoff odds from the preseason for a reminder of how quickly perceptions and presumptions can go flying right out the window.
But track down your nearest pair of binoculars as we take a glimpse into the future with these early predictions on the biggest to-dos of this year's trade deadline.
Houston Astros Will Be Trade Deadline Sellers...
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We all know better than to throw in the towel on the Houston Astros in April—especially this April, where even dead last in the American League is still within about three games of a wild card spot.
Just two years ago, they were 10-19 at the end of April, 12-24 by mid-May, and a full 10 games back in the AL West in mid-June. They still won the division for the seventh time in an eight-year stretch featuring plenty of slow starts.
This year feels different, though.
Even with Yordan Alvarez leading the league in all sorts of mashing categories, and even with Christian Walker also looking better than ever for an offense averaging more than five runs per game, Houston is eight games below .500 because of its dreadful pitching.
Yes, a lot of that can be attributed to injuries. With Hunter Brown, Cristian Javier, Tatsuya Imai, Josh Hader and more on the IL, let's just say the current pitching staff isn't what Houston had in mind.
But it's not like any of their returns are imminent. Imai might be the only one of that quartet who rejoins the roster in the next four weeks, and he had walked 25 percent of the first 44 batters he faced in Major League Baseball before landing on the IL.
By the time this pitching staff gets to anything resembling full strength, it might be too late to salvage a trip to the postseason—just like it was for preseason contenders Texas in 2024 and Atlanta last year.
The question, though, is how far they would go if they embrace selling?
Our Zachary Rymer wrote last week about where Yordan Alvarez could land if the Astros made him available. But he's still under contract through 2028. Short of a trade package on par with what it took to get Juan Soto away from the Nationals with two-plus years of team control remaining, it's hard to imagine he'll actually be on the move.
The Astros have starting pitcher Lance McCullers Jr. as an impending free agent, as well as relievers Bryan Abreu, Steven Okert and temporary closer Enyel De Los Santos. They could get a decent return for those soon-departing arms.
Selling high on Walker would presumably be in the cards, too. He has one $20M season remaining on his deal after this one, and Houston has a well-documented logjam of infielders when at full strength. They could slide Isaac Paredes from 3B to 1B, recoup a significant chunk of cash and presumably get a decent prospect in the process. (Or it could be Paredes on the trade block with one arbitration year remaining.)
It wouldn't be a full-blown fire sale a la the 2021 Chicago Cubs, but they do have a few desirable expiring assets.
...But None of the Other Slow Starters Will Admit Defeat
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Houston is one of five teams that is presently at least three games below .500, despite a preseason win total of at least 86.5.
The others are the Blue Jays, Mets, Phillies and Red Sox—each of whom is very much in "will be paying a luxury tax" territory.
But unless the Mets are willing to part with Freddy Peralta just a few months after giving up top prospects Jett Williams and Brandon Sproat to get him, or unless the Phillies are able to find a taker for what's left of Zack Wheeler's three-year, $126M contract, it just doesn't make much sense for any of those teams to wave the white flag.
Boston, in particular, has no trade deadline escape hatch built into its roster/payroll situation, which is probably why it was the first team to show real desperation by firing Alex Cora and more this past Saturday. Sonny Gray is the Red Sox's only impending free agent with any particular trade value, and even that's questionable due to both his current status on the IL and the $10M buyout of a 2027 mutual option.
The one team of the quartet that could put together a semi-serious fire sale is Toronto.
With Kevin Gausman, Daulton Varsho, George Springer, Shane Bieber, Eric Lauer, Myles Straw and Yimi García among its impending free agents, the reigning AL champion could make a handful of MLB-for-MiLB swaps without giving up anything for 2027 and beyond.
However, after the sheer amount invested in this team over the past 18 months, if there's any hope of a playoff spot in early August, the Blue Jays will probably just let it ride.
Texas Rangers Acquire the Best Closer Available
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At the moment, it's tough to say who the trade deadline's best available closer might be.
It could be White Sox reliever Seranthony Domínguez, who has struggled to keep the ball in the yard, yet already has seven saves in the first season of a two-year, $20M deal.
If the Phillies and Red Sox continue to flounder, maybe Jhoan Duran or Aroldis Chapman will be auctioned off to the highest bidder. The former has one year of arbitration eligibility remaining, while the latter is slated for $13M in 2027 if he logs at least 40 innings pitched in 2026. Either one is more than good enough to be the primary closer for a World Series hopeful.
Whoever it is, though, look for the Rangers to acquire him.
Trading for Chapman midway through the 2023 campaign was a major piece of their World Series puzzle. He was kind of all over the map during the regular season, but he had six holds and a 2.25 ERA during the postseason.
Meanwhile, failing to adequately address their ninth-inning woes at last year's trade deadline was maybe the biggest reason the Rangers sputtered to a .500 record by losing 11 of their final 13 games.
If any team understands the importance of having a strong back end of the bullpen for the stretch run, it's Texas.
Yet, the Rangers are presently hoping for the best with a closer-by-committee approach in which Jakob Junis and Tyler Alexander have gotten the most save chances to date—two pitchers who entered this season with a combined three saves in their 1,393.2 career innings pitched.
If the Rangers are still in the postseason hunt three months from now, they'll make a big move for a closer.
Pittsburgh Pirates Plunder the Trade Block
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The last time the Pirates were buyers at the trade deadline, it ended disastrously for them. It was 2018, and they traded away Tyler Glasnow, Austin Meadows and Shane Baz to get Chris Archer from the Rays. They haven't sniffed the postseason since.
But for the first time in a long time, they're in it to win it.
They signed Ryan O'Hearn and Marcell Ozuna in a rare free agent spending spree by their standards. They also traded for Brandon Lowe, Jake Mangum and others. They promoted Konnor Griffin and immediately signed him to a massive extension. And they're not done yet.
Between Joey Bart and Henry Davis, "Pirates catcher" has to be one of the five least productive lineup spots in the majors this season. But Minnesota's Ryan Jeffers is very likely to be available, and Baltimore's Adley Rutschman might be gettable if the Orioles bottom out. Pittsburgh will improve its backstop situation.
Another starting pitcher is a near-must, too, but there should be plenty available. Maybe Robbie Ray if San Francisco's offense remains a trainwreck and the Giants fall hopelessly out of contention?
And if Ozuna's bat never wakes up, Pittsburgh will be in the market for whoever ends up playing this year's role of 2025 Eugenio Suárez as top slugger available. Colorado's Mickey Moniak and Angels DH Jorge Soler are early candidates.
Perhaps the Pirates won't be the most aggressive buyers, but they do have a good enough farm system to really pursue a title in this window with Paul Skenes as their laughably underpaid ace.
CJ Abrams Becomes This Year's Steven Kwan
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We should clarify up front that we aren't comparing CJ Abrams and Steven Kwan from a production standpoint. One is a four-time Gold Glove outfielder who has tallied at least 168 hits in three of the past four seasons; the other is a slugging shortstop who maxed out at 149 hits last year and who has one of the least valuable gloves in the majors.
In the final two weeks or so leading up to last year's deadline, though, Kwan—making $4.125M with two years of arbitration eligibility remaining for a team that was sub-.500 at the time—quickly became all the rage as a top trade candidate. He ended up not going anywhere, but seemingly every team with a need either in left field or in the on-base percentage department was linked as a possible suitor.
Well, Abrams—who, like Kwan a year ago, has been worth at least 3.0 bWAR in each of the previous three seasons—is making $4.2M with two years of arbitration eligibility remaining for a team that no one realistically expects to have a winning record three months from now. That is going to put him in a very similar trade block boat.
One key difference, however, is that the 2025 Guardians had been to the postseason in three of the five previous years and had realistic hopes of turning things around to reach the playoffs. The 2026 Nationals, on the other hand, are probably headed for a seventh consecutive season with a sub-.440 winning percentage.
Their willingness to turn Abrams into two or three quality prospects is presumably much higher than Cleveland's willingness was to part with Kwan, so a deal might actually get done this time around.
Minnesota Twins Re-Ignite Last Summer's Fire Sale
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After starting 11-7 and surprisingly leading the AL Central three weeks into the season, the Twins have dropped 10 of 12, settling into their expected below-.500 home.
In all likelihood, Minnesota will be a seller once again, one year removed from unloading 11 players from its 26-man roster in the span of four days.
How aggressive could this year's fire sale be?
Well, let's take a gander at some contract situations.
Absolutely on the Trade Block:
C Ryan Jeffers ($6.7M, Free Agent this winter)
1B/DH Josh Bell ($5.75M, $10M mutual option)
LHP Taylor Rogers ($2M, Free Agent this winter)
Probably on the Block:
RHP Joe Ryan ($6.2M, arbitration eligible for 2027)
RHP Bailey Ober ($5.2M, arbitration eligible for 2027)
OF Trevor Larnach ($4.475M, arbitration eligible for 2027)
RHP Justin Topa ($1.225M, arbitration eligible for 2027)
LHP Anthony Banda ($1.625M, arbitration eligible for 2027)
C/1B Victor Caratini ($7M, $7M in 2027)
Maybe Available:
CF Byron Buxton ($15M annually 2026-28; full no-trade clause)
3B Royce Lewis ($2.85M, arbitration eligible for 2027 and 2028)
It's quite unlikely the Twins will unload 11 players again, but that's 11 viable options right there. And, if healthy, our early guess is that at least six of them will be on the move in a bit of a Fire Sale 2.0.
Joe Ryan remains the big fish that everyone is monitoring. If he or Byron Buxton gets shipped out, that's essentially the Twins waving the white flag on the next couple of seasons, hoping to reload by the time top prospects Walker Jenkins and Kaelen Culpepper are key pieces of the puzzle.
Sandy Alcantara Becomes San Diego Alcantara
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Sandy Alcantara has shown up in so many of these trade predictions articles over the past two years that you may well have his contract situation committed to memory.
For those who don't, he's making $17M this season and has a $21M club option (or $2M buyout) for 2027. He also receives a $1M bonus if traded, and there are no known no-trade clauses in his deal.
And in stark contrast to last April, the 2022 NL Cy Young winner is pitching quite well for the Marlins, posting a 3.05 ERA through his first six starts—albeit with the lowest strikeout rate of his career.
Maybe he pitches so well for the next three months that Miami winds up hanging around as a contender.
If the Marlins fall by the wayside as expected, though, it's less a question of "if" Alcantara gets traded and more a question of "where."
Surely, there will be no shortage of interested parties, but look for San Diego's A.J. Preller to work his deadline magic once again.
The Padres' current farm system is pretty much unanimously regarded as the MLB's weakest, considering all the prospects they've given up in big trades over the past few years.
But who loves trading one MLB player for three or four prospects more than the Marlins do?
In 2024 alone, they did it with Luis Arraez, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Tanner Scott and Jake Burger. At last year's deadline, they did it with Jesús Sánchez. This past winter, they turned Edward Cabrera and Ryan Weathers into seven prospects.
And to add an ace who could possibly anchor a World Series run, Preller won't hesitate to part with a platter of the 19-year-old lottery tickets down on the farm.
New York Mets Make a Godfather Offer for Munetaka Murakami
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Munetaka Murakami entered Major League Baseball with a wide range of possible outcomes. But through about five weeks of action, the White Sox first baseman and AL Rookie of the Year hopeful has exceeded even our wildest expectations. Not only has he clubbed 12 home runs with a solid on-base percentage, but he has also provided above-average defense at first base.
Little good has it done the White Sox, though, who still have one of the worst run differentials and little to no realistic hope of making the postseason.
If (and when) things go south for the South Siders over the course of the next three months, Murakami's two-year, $34M contract is going to become the Belle of this year's deadline ball.
Meanwhile, arguably the most painful of all the offseason decisions that now look regrettable was the Mets letting Pete Alonso sign with the Baltimore Orioles and then inadequately dealing with his departure.
Instead of what had been one of the most reliable first basemen in the majors over the past seven years, they've been left hoping for the best on a daily basis with Mark Vientos, Brett Baty, Jorge Polanco and Jared Young—the latter two of whom are presently on the IL—getting a .581 OPS from that spot in the lineup.
First base certainly isn't the Mets' only problem, but it is one they might be able to resolve in a big way by offering Chicago a package headlined by their top pitching prospect, Jonah Tong.
Even if New York is still nowhere close to contention by early August, it might swing big for Murakami for 2027 purposes, especially considering the upcoming class of free agents is painfully light on first basemen.
