New NFL Mock Draft Trends and Trade Scenarios from Top Experts' Updated Picks

The 2026 NFL draft is only a week out, and many of the top draft analysts have released fresh mock drafts in preparation. Unsurprisingly, these updated mocks all expect trades to be a big part of the first-round proceedings.

Trades are always a pivotal part of the draft, and the fact that we're going to see a few might be the only "sure thing" we know about Round 1—aside from the fact that the Las Vegas Raiders are going to take Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza first overall.

Here, we'll examine the latest mock drafts from ESPN's Mel Kiper Jr., The Ringer's Todd McShay, and The Athletic's Dane Brugler to uncover any new trends and trade scenarios worth noting.

Top 10 Comparisons

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Indiana QB prospect Fernando Mendoza

Kiper's Top 10

1. Las Vegas Raiders: Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana

2. New York Jets: David Bailey, Edge, Texas Tech

3. Arizona Cardinals: Arvell Reese, Edge, Ohio State

4. Tennessee Titans: Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame

5. New York Giants: Caleb Downs, S, Ohio State

6. Dallas Cowboys (Projected trade): Sonny Styles, LB, Ohio State

7. Washington Commanders: Carnell Tate, WR, Ohio State

8. New Orleans Saints: Rueben Bain Jr., Edge, Miami

9. Kansas City Chiefs: Jordyn Tyson, WR, Arizona State

10. Cincinnati Bengals: Mansoor Delane, CB, LSU

McShay's Top 10

1. Las Vegas Raiders: Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana

2. New York Jets: David Bailey, Edge, Texas Tech

3. New Orleans Saints (Projected trade): Arvell Reese, Edge, Ohio State

4. Tennessee Titans: Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame

5. New York Giants: Francis Mauigoa, OT, Miami

6. Dallas Cowboys (Projected trade): Sonny Styles, LB, Ohio State

7. New York Jets (Projected trade): Carnell Tate, WR, Ohio State

8. Arizona Cardinals (Projected trade): Spencer Fano, OT, Utah

9. Kansas City Chiefs: Jordyn Tyson, WR, Arizona State

10. Cincinnati Bengals: Caleb Downs, S, Ohio State

Brugler's Top 10

1. Las Vegas Raiders: Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana

2. New York Jets: Arvell Reese, Edge, Ohio State

3. Arizona Cardinals: Francis Mauigoa, OT, Miami

4. Tennessee Titans: David Bailey, Edge, Texas Tech

5. New York Giants: Caleb Downs, S, Ohio State

6. Dallas Cowboys (Projected trade): Sonny Styles, LB, Ohio State

7. Washington Commanders: Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame

8. New Orleans Saints: Carnell Tate, WR, Ohio State

9. Kansas City Chiefs: Rueben Bain Jr., Edge, Miami

10. Cincinnati Bengals: Mansoor Delane, CB, LSU

Caleb Downs On the Rise Again?

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Ohio State S prospect Caleb Downs

Ohio State safety Caleb Downs is undoubtedly one of the most talented prospects in this year's draft. Yet, opinions about where he'll be drafted have fluctuated throughout the predraft process.

Downs is the top-ranked prospect at any position on the Bleacher Report Scouting Department's big board\. However, safeties simply aren't traditionally valued highly.

"As good as Downs is, he also plays a position that tends to be devalued in the NFL," Bleacher Report's Gary Davenport wrote. "There hasn't been a safety drafted in the top 10 since Jamal Adams went sixth overall to the New York Jets in 2017."

However, Downs' stock appears to be trending upward and is likely closer to where it should be. While he fell to the 10th pick in McShay's mock, Kiper and Brugler both had him landing with the New York Giants at No. 5.

"I keep coming back to what Downs could do from the back end of this secondary. Next to Jevon Holland, his incredible instincts would pop in this defense," Kiper wrote. "Downs would be the first safety taken in the top five since Eric Berry went to the Chiefs in 2010, and he'd be worth it."

The Bleacher Report Scouting Department also mocked Downs to the Giants at No. 5 at the end of March.

Downs is probably a top-10 lock at this point, and it shouldn't surprise anyone if he goes within the first five or six selections.

Dallas Cowboys a Strong Candidate to Trade Up

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Ohio State LB prospect Sonny Styles

If Downs falls outside of the top five, he could become a target of the Dallas Cowboys. All three of the experts projected Dallas trading up to the No. 6 spot in order to take a defender.

That shouldn't come as a surprise, as the Cowboys' defense ranked just 30th overall and 32nd in points allowed last season.

McShay, Kiper, and Brugler all had Dallas moving up from No. 12 to No. 6 to take Ohio State linebacker Sonny Styles.

"The Cowboys could sit at No. 12 and have an impact defender fall to them, but it won't be surprising if the organization gets aggressive," Brugler explained. "Styles would not only be an immediate starter at a position of need, but also wear the green dot as a rookie."

Styles is the sixth-ranked overall prospect on the B/R board and the top off-ball linebacker in this year's class. With an elite blend of physical traits and football skills, he's worth a top-six selection—whether he's worth multiple high picks through a trade is more debatable.

However, Styles isn't the only defender Dallas may consider moving up to get. Downs would give the Cowboys a legitimate difference-maker on the back end, and Dallas could use an edge-rusher like Miami's Rueben Bain Jr. or a corner like LSU's Mansoor Delane.

Browns, Cardinals Strong Candidates to Trade Down

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Ohio State LB prospect Arvell Reese

While it's worth noting that the Cowboys moved up in all three mocks, it's equally noteworthy that the Cleveland Browns traded down in all three. The Browns should be considered candidates to move down, and not just because they have a history of doing so.

Cleveland's two biggest needs are at offensive tackle and wide receiver. Filling either with the sixth overall pick might not yield maximum value. Brugler had the Browns moving down and getting Utah offensive tackle Spencer Fano, while McShay and Kiper both had them taking Alabama's Kadyn Proctor.

"I've been told by multiple sources that the Browns have significant interest in Proctor," McShay wrote. "Taking him at no. 6 would be a reach, and he likely wouldn't make it to 24, so this becomes a logical solution."

While McShay was the only one who had the Arizona Cardinals moving down, they should be considered a prime candidate to do exactly that. For one, a premier edge-rusher like Ohio State's Arvell Reese or Texas Tech's David Bailey could draw significant interest. Secondly, the Cardinals need help along the offensive line and a new quarterback of the future. They're not going to get fair value for either at No. 3.

Bleacher Report's Brad Gagnon recently released a mock draft that examines what teams are likely to do versus what they should do. He believes that trading down and getting a tackle would be a logical option.

"If Arizona can't land Reese or Bailey, it makes even more sense to collect some extra draft capital and select the best offensive lineman available later in the top 10," Gagnon wrote.

Trading down might also give Arizona the capital needed to make a play for a quarterback like Alabama's Ty Simpson later in Round 1.

The B/R Scouting Department mocked a trade back into the first round that saw Arizona landing Simpson at No. 26. Kiper and McShay both had the Cardinals trading into Round 1 and taking him at No. 30, while Brugler had them getting Simpson at pick No. 34.