2026 NFL Mock Draft Predicting Biggest Risers and Fallers of Draft Night

Gary DavenportApr 8, 2026

We have a current events update: the 2026 NFL draft is nearly here.

It sneaks up on us every year.

Mock draft season is in the homestretch. Over the next fortnight, a multitude of mocks will be released, as pundits attempt to predict how the first round will pan out.

All of them will have Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza listed as the first pick, but all will vary wildly beyond that.

One of the reasons the draft is so hard to forecast is that all 32 teams value players differently. One club's potential bargain is another's must-avoid bust. Add in positional needs, and players get scooped up or fall farther than most believed they would.

It's that disconnect we're going to dig into here by comparing a Round 1 mock to the most recent Bleacher Report NFL Scouting Department Big Board and highlighting players who could be selected much earlier or later than their rankings indicate.

Riser: OT Monroe Freeling, Georgia

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AP Photo/George Walker IV

Bleacher Report Big Board Rank: 48

Mock Draft Slot: 11 (Miami Dolphins)

It's no secret that offensive tackles are highly coveted in the NFL draft.

Starting with Will Campbell at fourth overall, five tackles were taken in Round 1 last year. Given that, it's not too surprising that two of the three biggest risers in this mock draft relative to where they are on the B/R Big Board are tackles, including the player many consider the top true left tackle prospect in the class.

Georgia's Monroe Freeling has the length and build NFL teams covet in left tackles. B/R's Brandon Thorn called him a, "well-built, long tackle prospect with good athletic ability who is fluid in pass pro and can snipe backers in the run game."

Dane Brugler of The Athletic sees Freeling as a solid fit for a Dolphins offensive line that needs help all over the place:

"Over the last few months, I've been pushing Freeling as an ascending prospect with talent worth an early-pick investment. His combine performance was uneven (NFL scout: 'His testing was good. His positional workout wasn't good at all.'), but a 1.71-second 10-yard split in the 40 at his size is impressive. Freeling would be a great building block for a new general manager, Jon-Eric Sullivan, looking to revamp the roster."

Faller: WR KC Concepcion, Texas A&M

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AP Photo/Michael Woods

Bleacher Report Big Board Rank: 16

Mock Draft Slot: 26 (Buffalo Bills)

This year's class at the wide receiver position may not be especially top-heavy, but it is deep. There will be wideouts available in the second half of Round 1 just due to the depth of the class who have the potential to make an immediate impact in the NFL.

B/R's Damian Parson believes KC Concepcion of Texas A&M can be just that sort of impact player in the pros.

"Concepcion changed the narrative from being a gadget-specific receiver into one of college football's most explosive run-after-catch weapons. He is an "instant" offensive threat for NFL teams," he said. "Concepcion is a dynamic, open-field weapon who can go beyond manufactured touches and easy completions. He's developing into a well-rounded, high-impact receiver with a high ceiling as an NFL option."

The Buffalo Bills already added veteran receiver D.J. Moore via trade, but Maxwell Owens of Buffalo Rumblings believes Concepcion could add even more explosiveness to a Bills offense that needs it:

"Concepcion is now one of the most electric players in this draft class, and he's really starting to pick up some serious buzz. A team that allows him to be free to work inside the numbers on choice routes or in-breakers is going to love what Concepcion brings to the table. The chops as a punt returner certainly won't hurt his resume."

Buffalo appears to agree. The team recently had the 6'0", 196-pounder in for a top-30 visit.

Riser: Colton Hood, CB, Tennessee

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AP Photo/James Pugh

Bleacher Report Big Board Rank: 54

Mock Draft Slot: 32 (Seattle Seahawks)

In this era of wide-open offenses, NFL teams can never have too many cornerbacks. But last year's rookie class featured just three taken inside the top 50, and there will likely only be a few selected in the first round in 2026.

Tennessee's Colton Hood ranks outside the top 50 on Bleacher Report's latest Big Board, but B/R's Daniel Harms wrote that the 6'0" 193-pounder showed quite a bit of potential over his collegiate career in Boulder and Knoxville.

"Hood plays with the confidence and man coverage tenacity that's seen him shut down some of the best receivers in college football," he said. "He makes plays on the football and comes downhill with explosiveness that limits yards after catch and lets him attack the catch point."

Mel Kiper of ESPN sees Hood as a good fit to help replenish a depleted secondary for the defending Super Bowl champions:

"Hood fits perfectly with the Mike Macdonald defense as a cornerback with length and decent speed, and while he had only one interception in 2025, he broke up 10 passes. The defending Super Bowl champions returned Josh Jobe and brought in Noah Igbinoghene, but Riq Woolen is off to the Eagles. Hood could get significant reps on the outside in Year 1."

There could be quite a run on cornerbacks on Day 2 this year. But in this mock at least, Hood sneaks into the back of Round 1.

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Faller: Caleb Downs, Ohio State

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AP Photo/Jay LaPrete

Bleacher Report Big Board Rank: 1

Mock Draft Slot: 10 (Cincinnati Bengals)

To be clear, this analyst believes Ohio State safety Caleb Downs is the best pure football player in this draft class. His combination of talent and knowledge of the game is unmatched.

The B/R Scouting Department agrees, and Downs is the highest-ranked prospect on its Big Board.

"Caleb Downs is the single best prospect for the 2026 draft cycle," Daniel Harms said. "With his experience in Matt Patricia's defense, he's going to hit the ground running for whatever NFL team drafts him."

However, as good as Downs is, he also plays a position that tends to be devalued in the NFL. There hasn't been a safety drafted in the top 10 since Jamal Adams went sixth overall to the New York Jets in 2017.

Bruce Feldman of The Athletic believes the Cincinnati Bengals would be wise to end that streak in 2026:

"My gut tells me that it'd be really hard for Cincinnati to pass on a star player from Ohio State who has excelled in a lot of big games and has a winning pedigree to go with off-the-charts football intelligence. Some scouts we've spoken to say the 6'0", 206-pound Downs reminds them of a bigger version of Budda Baker. That's high praise. Baker, a former second-rounder, has been to eight Pro Bowls in his nine-year career."

A Bengals defense that was atrocious last season and has needs at all three levels would be foolish to pass on this kind of value.

Riser: QB Ty Simpson, Alabama

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AP Photo/Phelan M. Ebenhack

Bleacher Report Big Board Rank: 28

Mock Draft Slot: 16 (New York Jets)

Ty Simpson may be the most polarizing prospect who could go in Round 1 this year. His supporters point to his arm talent and the fact that he was arguably the best signal-caller in the country over the first half of the 2025 season.

As B/R's Damian Parson noted, though, injuries and a rough second half have caused Simpson to fall on many draft boards.

"Simpson has emerged as a top quarterback in the NFL draft class with a savvy, polished skill set that translates well into NFL offenses," he said. "Simpson's first eight or nine games was a great display of his positives as a prospect. That said, injuries and roster flaws highlighted his youth down the stretch of the season."

Many draftniks have dropped the Alabama product out of Round 1 altogether. But Tyler Erzberger of Newsweek believes the New York Jets could look at him with the second of their first-round selections:

"No matter how much they hype up Geno Smith returning to New York to 'finish his story,' they need something, or more importantly, someone, to get excited about. Smith can mentor Simpson for a season or two before letting the Crimson Tide QB try to bring hope back to Gotham."

Yes, the Jets have three first-round picks in a 2027 draft that is supposedly better at quarterback. But it wasn't that long ago that folks were extolling the virtues of the class of 2026.

If you don't have a franchise quarterback, keep swinging until you find one.

Faller: CB Jermod McCoy, Tennessee

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AP Photo/Wade Payne

Bleacher Report Big Board Rank: 12

Mock Draft Slot: 19 (Carolina Panthers)

In a vacuum, Jermod McCoy would probably be the first cornerback drafted in 2026. The 6'1" 188-pounder may not have made it out of the top 10.

As Harms noted, tape of McCoy from 2024 shows a player who could be a difference-maker at the NFL level.

"McCoy has the best tape of any cornerback in the 2026 NFL draft class," he said. "McCoy is explosive, twitchy, physical and can do anything asked of him in the secondary. His combination of suffocating man coverage and instinctual zone ability is impressive."

The problem is that you have to look at tape of 2024, because McCoy missed the entire 2025 season with a torn ACL. However, he was able to participate in at least some pre-draft workouts, and it's still believed he will hear his name called on the draft's first day.

Ryan Wilson of CBS Sports predicted McCoy could fall to the back end of the top 20 before being selected by the Carolina Panthers.

"McCoy didn't play a snap in 2025 after tearing his ACL the previous January," he said, "but his 2024 tape is some of the best in the class. Jaycee Horn is elite when healthy, but Mike Jackson is in the final year of his current deal."

Admittedly, it's something of a risky choice, but the potential reward could be sizable. And once you get into the back half of Round 1, that reward becomes worth the gamble.