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2026 NFL Mock Draft Predicting What Will Happen Instead of What Should Happen in Round 1
Mock drafts can be tricky. That's not just because we're all trying to pin the tail on the donkey, but also because there's often confusion between a prediction and a suggestion.
So why not do both?
With the NFL draft on the horizon, here's what we predict will happen (excluding trades) and what we think should happen.
1. Las Vegas Raiders
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Will Happen: They draft QB Fernando Mendoza, Indiana
The betting odds alone suggest there is a 99.5 percent probability the Heisman winner lands with the Raiders in the top spot, and you won't find a mainstream mock draft that strays from that.
Should Happen: They draft QB Fernando Mendoza, Indiana
Keep it simple. The Raiders are in desperate need of their next franchise quarterback, and Mendoza has the complete package as a polished, high-IQ pocket passer. This is a no-brainer.
2. New York Jets
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Will Happen: They draft LB Arvell Reese, Ohio State
The versatile consensus All-American is widely considered the best defensive player in this draft class, and he is certainly a good fit for Aaron Glenn's defense.
Should Happen: They draft Edge David Bailey, Texas Tech
Bailey is actually an even better fit, and there would be fewer questions about his role as a pure edge rusher for a team that certainly needs that as well. Bailey is the more "pro-ready" player, and less likely to be a jack-of-all-trades but master-of-none.
3. Arizona Cardinals
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Will Happen: They draft OT Francis Mauigoa, Miami
They've got their future at wide receiver and tight end, so it makes sense to start building up the offensive line with this thick and powerful consensus All-American.
Should Happen: They trade down and take an offensive tackle
Mauigoa is a great fit, but so is Spencer Fano out of Utah. If Arizona can't land Reese or Bailey, it makes even more sense to collect some extra draft capital and select the best offensive lineman available later in the top 10.
4. Tennessee Titans
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Will Happen: They draft RB Jeremiyah Love, Notre Dame
Love looks like he could be the league's next superstar running back, and he'd be a shiny new piece in a skill position group that is severely lacking in talent to support young quarterback Cam Ward. Of course the mock drafters are all over this.
Should Happen: They draft edge David Bailey, Texas Tech
A running back at No. 4 is far too much of a luxury considering the state of Tennessee's roster. If one of those two elite defenders is on the board in this spot, the Titans have to go that route. If not, they'd be better off trading down in order to add more talent across the board.
5. New York Giants
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Will Happen: They draft LB Sonny Styles, Ohio State
The extremely athletic first-team All-American suits John Harbaugh's approach and fills a need at the same time.
Should Happen: They trade down and take an interior offensive lineman
The Giants are trying to complete a rebuild but have just two picks in the first three rounds. They already added a veteran off-ball linebacker in Tremaine Edmunds this offseason, and they need to focus on the trenches anyway.
6. Cleveland Browns
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Will Happen: They draft WR Carnell Tate, Ohio State
Receiver is an obvious need as they look to build things up around their young quarterbacks who will continue to audition in 2026, and Tate is considered by many to be the best wideout in this class. He'd make an immediate impact in Cleveland.
Should Happen: They draft WR Carnell Tate, Ohio State
Honestly, this is a good spot for the Browns as long as they don't get cute and take either the best receiver or offensive tackle available and then reverse that with their second first-round pick. I'm good with Tate, who is a polished high-volume target who can win at all three levels.
7. Washington Commanders
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Will Happen: They draft edge David Bailey, Texas Tech
In this case I have Bailey sliding and the pro-ready sack machine would be difficult to pass up for a Commanders team that is sort of spinning its wheels on the edge.
Should Happen: They draft S Caleb Downs, Ohio State
Wouldn't fault them for capitalizing on a Bailey fall, but they did at least add K'Lavon Chaisson and Odafe Oweh there. The B/R NFL Scouting Dept. ranks Downs as the best overall prospect in this class, and it wouldn't take long for him to pull this entire defense to the next level.
8. New Orleans Saints
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Will Happen: They draft WR Makai Lemon, USC
An argument can be made that Lemon is right there with Tate, and the Saints should absolutely be in the hunt for another receiver to pair with Chris Olave in support of young quarterback Tyler Shough.
Should Happen: They draft edge Rueben Bain Jr., Miami
The defense needs more work, and I'm not sure Lemon will be elite. With Olave there, you can put receiver off and focus on the best player available. In this case, that's either Bain or Downs.
9. Kansas City Chiefs
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Will Happen: They draft CB Mansoor Delane, LSU
This one has felt obvious for a while. The pro-ready man-cover outside corner represents solid value here and fills a significant hole for a Chiefs team looking to bounce back into contention.
Should Happen: They draft CB Mansoor Delane, LSU
Case made above, although I also wouldn't fault them for going best player available with Downs. Either would be stellar Day 1 contributors to a secondary in transition, and would suit Steve Spagnuolo's defense nicely.
10. Cincinnati Bengals
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Will Happen: They draft S Caleb Downs, Ohio State
Finally we find the ideal spot for one of this draft's best all-around players. Last year's 30th-ranked scoring defense needs the boost in a major way, and Downs has the polish to make a tremendous difference from the get-go.
Should Happen: They draft S Caleb Downs, Ohio State
Don't mess this up, Bengals. With Reese and Styles and Bain off the board, this is your guy.
11. Miami Dolphins
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Will Happen: They draft WR Jordyn Tyson, Arizona State
This one's pretty obvious if indeed Tate and Lemon go off the board in the top 10 and Miami stands pat. The Dolphins need to get Malik Willis a high-potential receiver, so it's either Tyson on offense or Bain to spark the defense.
Should Happen: They trade up for a receiver
I doubt Jon-Eric Sullivan gets this aggressive in his first draft, but dealing into the top 10 to ensure a better chance at the pick of the wide receiver litter is a good idea when you've got seven picks in the first three rounds. I don't think Tyson is necessarily a bad pick, but I'm not convinced he can physically hold up in the NFL. Tate and Lemon are better bets.
12. Dallas Cowboys
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Will Happen: They draft edge Rueben Bain Jr., Miami
This would be a dream situation for the Cowboys, who need more across the board on defense but could catch a free-falling Bain to immediately bolster a pass rush that has major question marks even after the acquisition of Rashan Gary. Bain has a potent combination of size and quickness and can deliver right away.
Should Happen: They draft edge Rueben Bain Jr., Miami
They'd want to run this draft card up. The only other guy who I wouldn't fault them for in this spot is Tennessee cornerback Jermod McCoy, who has a mega-high ceiling.
13. Los Angeles Rams (via Atlanta)
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Will Happen: They draft CB Jermod McCoy, Tennessee
A team with few holes has smoothed things over at cornerback for now but could use another body as part of the next generation. McCoy drops because of a lost 2025 season but is seen as a worthwhile gamble in this spot.
Should Happen: They trade up for a receiver
The Rams might be one of the best teams in the NFL, but that doesn't change the fact their window is closing due to Matthew Stafford's age. They are stacked enough to deal away some capital to ensure they land a receiver who can cover/support their two stars at that critical position.
14. Baltimore Ravens
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Will Happen: They draft IOL Vega Ioane, Penn State
The Ravens need to replace three-time Pro Bowler Tyler Linderbaum, and the interior offensive line was a major issue even before Linderbaum's departure. Ioane can make a major immediate impact as the best guard in this class.
Should Happen: They draft IOL Vega Ioane, Penn State
It works out well that he's also one of the best players available in this spot for a team that likes going that route. The only alternative that I'd approve of is taking Spencer Fano from Utah and moving him inside, but I think that carries more risk in 2026.
15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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Will Happen: They draft edge Keldric Faulk, Auburn
There's a need, this is about the right value, and I think Todd Bowles would drool over Faulk's potential fit within that Tampa Bay defense.
Should Happen: They draft edge Akheem Mesidor, Miami
Trading ceiling height for polish for a team that has to be all-in right now and could use a more developed product to spark the defensive front seven in 2026. There's a chance they could also trade down and get this done, with Cashius Howell from Texas A&M also a smart fit as a Plan B.
16. New York Jets (via Indianapolis)
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Will Happen: They draft WR KC Concepcion, Texas A&M
With their first pick devoted to defense, the Jets seem likely to take the best receiver available in this spot. Somebody to pair with Garrett Wilson. I wouldn't be surprised if they used some of the capital associated with four picks in the top 45 to trade up for one of the big three, but settling for the rising Concepcion seems like a strong possibility.
Should Happen: They draft QB Ty Simpson, Alabama
You just have to swing the bat, especially knowing that this is a bonus first-rounder and you've got two more picks between now and midway through Round 2. Simpson has a lot of progress to make, but at least this gets someone viable through the door now. The Jets can't afford to let this linger with just Geno Smith throughout 2026.
17. Detroit Lions
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Will Happen: They draft OT Spencer Fano, Utah
A team in significant need of versatile offensive linemen wouldn't likely hesitate to snatch up a falling Fano here. That said, Monroe Freeling from Georgia and Kadyn Proctor out of Alabama also work and represent strong value. It's a good spot for the Lions.
Should Happen: They draft OT Spencer Fano, Utah
Pass rush is a slightly overblown need considering that they at least added vets DJ Wonnum and Payton Turner in support of Aidan Hutchinson. With the top corners also off the board here, it's got to be Fano, Freeling or Proctor. Would they consider trading back a few spots if they view them all on a similar level? Regardless, Fano is more developed and versatile than the other two guys.
18. Minnesota Vikings
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Will Happen: They draft S Dillon Thieneman, Oregon
It's a glaring need and an appropriate location for the 2023 third-team All-American and 2025 first-team All-American. Mock drafts have been all over this one, as Thieneman should be on track to make an immediate impact for a team hoping to contend.
Should Happen: They draft S Emmanuel McNeil-Warren, Toledo
This is a nitpick. I'd applaud either selection for the Vikings. That said, I think McNeil-Warren can be more of a tone-setter and a chess piece within this defense. The fit is there, but the impact potential is higher.
19. Carolina Panthers
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Will Happen: They draft TE Kenyon Sadiq, Oregon
This is about building more around Bryce Young, with the line generally shored up and the receiver position relatively stable. The Panthers have a void at tight end, and Sadiq is a mid-first-round talent who can do anything you want at that position.
Should Happen: They draft TE Kenyon Sadiq, Oregon
It makes too much sense, especially considering the Rasheed Walker signing to cover for Ikem Ekwonu's injury. If the top tier of receivers in the class are gone, they have to go with Sadiq.
20. Dallas Cowboys (via Green Bay)
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Will Happen: They draft CB Avieon Terrell, Clemson
They addressed the front seven with their first pick. Now you'd surely expect them to hit the secondary. The extremely active Terrell leads the next tier of corners and would not at all be a reach in this spot.
Should Happen: They trade back and draft a corner at the bottom of the first round
I just don't see a huge gap between Terrell and Colton Hood from Tennessee or Chris Johnson out of San Diego State. I also wouldn't imagine many more corners will go off the board in Round 1. Might as well add some extra picks in later rounds.
21. Pittsburgh Steelers
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Will Happen: They draft WR Omar Cooper Jr., Indiana
I get the feeling they'll know by now that Aaron Rodgers will be back for one more kick at the can, which means this pick has to be dedicated to a guy who can make a significant impact in an all-or-nothing 2026 campaign. Cooper can be that guy to work with DK Metcalf and Michael Pittman Jr.
Should Happen: They draft WR Omar Cooper Jr., Indiana
I was tempted to suggest they should trade up for an even more polished receiver option, but I'm not sure the leap to the middle of Round 1 is worth it for the still-flawed KC Concepcion, and the price tag would be too high to land one of the big three at that position. So, this will do.
22. Los Angeles Chargers
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Will Happen: They draft edge Akheem Mesidor, Miami
The Chargers know they need to look to the future on the edge, and Mesidor is likely to be an every-down option early in his career.
Should Happen: They draft OL Kadyn Proctor, Alabama
I get the feeling the team feels more comfortable than it should about the offensive line, especially the interior following some "meh" free-agent additions. The fact is, there are still question marks everywhere and it's no guarantee their tackles will stay healthy this time around. This spot represents good value for Proctor, who has plenty of high-end outside experience but is a strong candidate to move inside anyway. This takes priority over edge from my perspective.
23. Philadelphia Eagles
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Will Happen: They draft edge T.J. Parker, Clemson
Considering the overall talent on the Eagles' roster, I'll bet they go best player available at a position of relative need (edge, offensive tackle, tight end, safety). For us, that's Parker hands down.
Should Happen: They draft edge T.J. Parker, Clemson
They certainly could go with Freeling or Proctor to address an increasingly shaky/aging offensive line, but they still have their starters there so that's realistically a pick for 2027 and beyond. This team has to focus on keeping up with NFC contenders, and Parker can contribute quickly even in a rotational role. Worry about a lineman of the future later in the draft.
24. Cleveland Browns (via Jacksonville)
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Will Happen: They draft OT Monroe Freeling, Georgia
I think they'll see how far Freeling has fallen, look at their left tackle situation and find themselves unable to resist.
Should Happen: They draft QB Ty Simpson, Alabama
They'll likely want to wait to give Shedeur Sanders and/or Dillon Gabriel plenty of looks in 2025, but the odds aren't in favor of either. You added a high-potential receiver in the top 10. Now it's time to collect as many dice as possible for the quarterback crapshoot. I'm not convinced of Freeling, and they've already invested heavily in the line this offseason.
25. Chicago Bears
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Will Happen: They draft edge Cashius Howell, Texas A&M
The Bears surely know they need something more on the edge with Dayo Odeyingbo recovering from a torn Achilles. This is about the right spot for Howell, who would fit in nicely in Dennis Allen's defense.
Should Happen: They trade with the Cowboys for the No. 20 overall selection
It would be uncharacteristic, but they do have an extra second-round pick as ammo, and this is no longer a rebuilding team that needs to stockpile draft picks. You know the Chargers and Eagles are likely to be in on edges, so get bold and position yourself for a higher-ranked player in that critical spot.
26. Buffalo Bills
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Will Happen: They draft DT Kayden McDonald, Ohio State
The Bills have to improve upon a 28th-ranked run defense, likely with a linebacker or run-stuffing defensive tackle here. There seems to be a lot of momentum for McDonald, who would provide that, as well as Peter Woods from Clemson, who represents nice value in this spot.
Should Happen: They draft LB CJ Allen, Georgia
Allen isn't the quick riser or the high-value pick based on draft stock, but he'd likely earn more quality playing time early on for a team that is low on patience. He can change the run defense dramatically as a rookie and eventually become the leader of that unit.
27. San Francisco 49ers
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Will Happen: They draft OL Kadyn Proctor, Alabama
They've been surprisingly quiet about addressing the offensive line, even though Trent Williams is nearing the end of his career and the interior is far from a strength. Proctor can launch his career inside and eventually become a candidate to start at tackle.
Should Happen: They draft S Emmanuel McNeil-Warren, Toledo
I actually really like the Proctor pick, and I believe they'll steer clear of a receiver (which is an overrated need). But I still believe they'd be better off adding the best defensive player available to mix it up within a unit that has trouble staying healthy. That's McNeil-Warren, who would have a chance to start from the get-go.
28. Houston Texans
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Will Happen: They draft DL Peter Woods, Clemson
I have a feeling they'll surprise and skip the offensive line after adding Wyatt Teller and Braden Smith and bringing back Ed Ingram. There are already plenty of bodies on the offensive line, both inside and outside. Defensive tackle is a soft spot that has received far less attention, which might be a clue they could go with the intriguing yet polarizing Woods.
Should Happen: They draft OL Emmanuel Pregnon, Oregon
Ignoring the line would be a mistake. It's quantity over quality right now, leaving C.J. Stroud in big trouble again entering a critical season. Pregnon has the ceiling to start at left guard as a rookie but won't face too much pressure right off the bat due to that aforementioned crowd.
29. Kansas City Chiefs (via L.A. Rams)
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Will Happen: They draft edge Zion Young, Missouri
With a cornerback already added and a need on the edge opposite George Karlaftis, Young is a real obvious choice as a true edge-setter who would fit well in Steve Spagnuolo's defense.
Should Happen: They draft edge Zion Young, Missouri
Hate to boringly give you will-versus-should matches for both Chiefs picks, but that's just how the chips fell. They need to address both spots, and these guys are great fits who make sense in these draft slots. Young suits this defense much better than our next-best edge, Malachi Lawrence out of UCF.
30. Miami Dolphins (via Denver)
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Will Happen: They draft S Emmanuel McNeil-Warren, Toledo
The slide finally ends, as the Dolphins get good value while addressing a need with our scouting department's No. 2-ranked safety.
Should Happen: They trade back with somebody desperate to grab a free-faller
You've already got your first-rounder and we're in crapshoot territory. This is a rebuild and you need those picks. You've got four in Round 3, now's the time to add another selection or two on Day 2.
31. New England Patriots
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Will Happen: They draft OT Max Iheanachor, Arizona State
Considering Morgan Moses is 35 and they lack depth along the line, there's been plenty of chatter that the Patriots will add reinforcements there early in this draft. I like Iheanachor more here for his brute power compared to alternatives Blake Miller from Clemson or Caleb Lomu out of Utah.
Should Happen: They draft WR Denzel Boston, Washington
Adding a receiver who can play a major role right away would have a much bigger early return on this first-round investment for the Pats. We have Boston dropping to this spot, but I'd also recommend using some of those seven picks between Round 4 and 6 to move up a few slots to be sure.
32. Seattle Seahawks
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Will Happen: They draft CB Chris Johnson, San Diego State
It's an appropriate pick in terms of both need and value, even if similarly talented corners D'Angelo Ponds (Indiana), Colton Hood (Tennessee) and Brandon Cisse (South Carolina) are also available to wrap up Round 1.
Should Happen: They trade back with somebody desperate to grab a free-faller
You lack picks in Rounds 4 and 5 and need to backfill depth in multiple spots. You can add a corner and an edge on Day 2 and bring in a back or two in the middle rounds while creating more competition throughout the roster.
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