New 2026 NBA Mock Draft with a Brutal Lottery Simulation
The NBA tank race is speeding toward a photo finish.
Well, sort of.
Because while teams have effectively stockpiled all of the losses they can by this point, it'll still be a while before the hoops world identifies the biggest winners among these losers. The draft lottery won't be held until Sunday, May 10, so expect to see plenty of finger-crossing, four-leaf clover collecting and shooting star-wishing between now and then.
It'll be an agonizing wait for those who just punted an entire 82-game marathon for the chance to snag a top prospect, though. So, why not try to speed things up, right?
While we can't actually accelerate the process, we can fire up Tankathon's lottery simulator and dress-rehearse everything from the ping-pong ball drawing to the draft picks that follow.
1. Washington Wizards: AJ Dybantsa, SF, BYU
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The race for No. 1 has felt too close to call for much of the pre-draft season, but Dybantsa might be pulling away from the pack. This oversimplifies things, but he sort of offers all of Darryn Peterson's upside without the injury risk and nearly all of Cameron Boozer's elite production without the worries about growth potential.
Dybantsa oozes star potential—he's a toolsy big wing who led the nation in scoring as a teenage freshman—but he competes like a scrappy role player. There is three-level power in his scoring punch, and his relentless downhill drives often either put him on a poster or send him to the foul line.
While the Wizards used their in-season trades for Anthony Davis and Trae Young to grease the gears for a return to relevance, they still find themselves without a clear-cut centerpiece. Hit this lottery's jackpot to collect Dybantsa as the prize, and that itch would be immediately scratched.
2. Dallas Mavericks: Darryn Peterson, SG, Kansas
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Unless you all know something about Tankathon's simulations that we don't, another big lottery win for the Mavericks here should be free of any conspiracy talk. Instead, it's all celebrations as Dallas finds its first building block to slot alongside Cooper Flagg.
Peterson's availability concerns are...well, concerning, but they also sort of cover the entire worry portion of his prospect profile. Everything else is drool-inducing praise. Get him to full strength to see elite athleticism coupled with the highest-end all-purpose offensive skills. He could be this draft's best scorer and shotmaker and in the discussion for its top two-way playmaker.
With Flagg perhaps already on a superstar path, Dallas could quickly add another blue-chip prospect who has a non-zero chance of winding up on the same trajectory. Short-term, the Mavs could also benefit from Peterson's ability to fill an off-ball role, since this offense could run through Flagg and Kyrie Irving next season.
3. Atlanta Hawks (via MIL): Cameron Boozer, PF, Duke
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With Dybantsa and Peterson off the board, the Hawks could pause long enough to perhaps overthink some fit concerns with Boozer. There'd be a lot of overlap with ascending All-Star Jalen Johnson, but maybe the two in tandem would cut down on what each could provide as a jumbo playmaker.
Then again, part of the reason there would be so much overlap is that their skill sets cover so much ground. That should be an absurd amount of rebounding, scoring and playmaking from the forward spots. As long as Atlanta aces its handling of the complementary pieces around that twosome, it could be a dangerous duo much sooner rather than later.
Unlike Johnson, Boozer will face some physical challenges at the NBA level, since he's a bit small for a power role and not especially bouncy. But he's ahead of his peers in terms of processing and skills. His resume is overloaded with team success. Betting on a player who is this young, this productive and this successful is almost always great basketball business.
4. Utah Jazz: Caleb Wilson, PF, North Carolina
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Wilson should be the fourth prospect listed on most draft boards. It's possible Utah could be one of the exceptions. Assuming the Jazz hang onto restricted free agent Walker Kessler—and it sounds like that's the plan—they don't have a clear opening for Wilson with Lauri Markkanen and Jaren Jackson Jr. already filling two frontcourt spots.
If Utah needed a tiebreaker between close-ranked prospects, that might be the one. But this project speaks to the fact Wilson might be too highly regarded over the alternatives to go a different direction.
He has anti-gravity bounce and an apparent desire to dunk any and everything within a halfway-realistic range of the basket. He also might have the best motor in this draft. There are flashes of outside shooting and ball-handling that could, if ever fully formed, skyrocket his ceiling.
5. Los Angeles Clippers (via IND): Keaton Wagler, PG/SG, Illinois
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This is the earliest possible pick the Clippers can land—it has 1-4 and 10-30 protection—so they won't want to waste this gift from the basketball gods. They can (and should) take a big swing knowing they have one of the league's least settled futures.
Buying into Wagler's meteoric rise might be the move to make. He is both a step-ahead offensive organizer and an attention-drawing off-ball shooter. He can thrive on either side of a drive-and-kick. While he's not a blur with the basketball, he is shifty and sharp enough to get where he wants to go.
There would be some defensive concerns with a Wagler-Darius Garland backcourt, but not the kind of defensive problems opponents would face when trying to contain them.
6. Brooklyn Nets: Darius Acuff Jr., PG/SG, Arkansas
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Acuff closed his lone collegiate campaign with such a flurry that this might represent the low end of his draft outcomes. The league might be moving away from undersized scoring guards, but he's a 6'3" lead guard who just happens to pack a knockout-powered scoring punch.
He dialed his own number early and often at Arkansas, but that had more to do with his standing as the best scorer than anything. He still kept his teammates plenty involved and was nearly allergic to turnovers: 2.2 in 35.1 minutes per game, an impressively low number for a teenager shouldering an enormous offensive burden.
The Nets need an offensive focal point. Acuff could fill that void in multiple ways: setting the table but also finishing the chances created by all of the playmakers Brooklyn assembled last summer.
7. Sacramento Kings: Kingston Flemings, PG, Houston
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This feels obvious. Maybe a little too obvious, honestly, since perpetual curveball-thrower Sacramento is the team on the clock.
But what better way to fill a De'Aaron Fox-sized hole in the backcourt then by adding a De'Aaron Fox clone? Flemings has as much blow-by burst as that description implies, but he's also a problem-solving processor at any speed.
The Kings, as they often do, appear in need of a full-scale overhaul. Flemings could be the perfect main character for their next chapter, since his blend of power and poise helps set a compelling, contagious tone.
8. Memphis Grizzlies: Mikel Brown Jr., PG/SG, Louisville
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The biggest believers in Brown will say the Grizzlies are getting a steal here—and a readymade replacement for Ja Morant. The jury remains out on the former, but confidence is easy to throw at the latter.
Brown might be too inconsistent to grant full control of an NBA offense right now, but maybe he could smooth things out by having more help around him and being further removed from the nagging back injury he struggled to shake this past season. Memphis should be fine letting him experiment, since it badly needs the kind of something-out-of-nothing creation he'd bring.
He is toolsy and talented, and his best-case scenarios are among the most interesting in this entire draft. And if his confidence proves contagious, he could get the Grizzlies on track quicker than they rationally should.
9. Milwaukee Bucks (via NOP): Brayden Burries, SG, Arizona
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Who knows how Milwaukee might look when it's actually making this pick, but it feels increasingly likely this could be the start of the franchise's post-Giannis Antetokounmpo plans. What seals this spot for Burries, though, is that he'd fit both as part of a long-term foundation or as an instant-impact energizer.
There's a whatever-we-need flexibility in his skill set, and the fact that he fits on or off the ball means he'd mesh with Milwaukee's young guards. He just showed a willingness to play his part as a Final Four participant, but he deftly handled ball-screen situations in a way suggesting he might have more creation than he was able to show with the Wildcats.
Whenever the Bucks kickstart their post-Antetokounmpo era, they'll be rebuilding from top to bottom. Burries' two-way adaptability will help him fit with whatever they put together.
10. Chicago Bulls: Nate Ament, SF, Tennessee
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The Bulls are plunging into the unknown. Finally! They gave their roster an overdue, future-focused reshuffling at the deadline, then split from the executives who took too long to dismantle their non-contending core. They should feel motivated—compelled even—to take the biggest swing they can here.
That means snatching up Ament and hoping this developmental staff manages to maximize his unique blend of size and skill. He didn't always move the needle at Tennessee, but when everything clicked, he looked like a 6'10" walking mismatch.
He defends, possesses a good feel and boasts the always coveted dribble-pass-shoot combo. Chicago should absolutely want to see what his future holds.
11. Golden State Warriors: Yaxel Lendeborg, PF, Michigan
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Lendeborg went from posting big numbers on some forgettable teams at UAB to contributing those same overstuffed stat sheets to the national champs. Consistently impacting winning in as many different ways as he does might be the easiest way for a prospect to endear himself to a win-right-now shopper like the Warriors.
And despite being one of the older players in this draft (he'll turn 24 before logging his first NBA minutes), a draft pick spent on him isn't a total abandonment of upside. His late-blooming rise gives him more growth potential than most players his age. His profile would grow infinitely more interesting if he keeps leveling up the volume and efficiency of his outside shot.
12. Portland Trail Blazers: Karim Lopez, PF, New Zealand Breakers
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The Blazers have found a Play-In-caliber winning formula built around defense, toughness and hustle. But they need to diversify their scoring menu. They shouldn't count on a 35-year-old, post-Achilles Damian Lillard fully handling that task.
It could make sense, then, to throw a dart at Lopez, who moves well without the basketball and provides both point-blank finishing and movement shooting. He also has the physicality and feel to serve as a versatile defender, which Portland will need once Jerami Grant ages out of the equation.
13. Miami Heat: Labaron Philon Jr., PG/SG, Alabama
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The Heat are forever in need of scoring help. That demand could grow more urgent this offseason, depending on how they handle Norman Powell's free agency and Tyler Herro's extension talks. Philon would immediately supply creation and shot-making and provide some insurance in case last year's first-round pick, Kasparas Jakučionis, underwhelms with his development.
Philon more than doubled his point production as a sophomore. While a role expansion explains some of that spike, so too do dramatically improved shooting rates. He is a limited athlete, but he's shifty off the dribble, smooth with long-range looks and in-between floaters while steadily piloting an offense.
14. Charlotte Hornets: Aday Mara, C, Michigan
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While the Hornets have gotten great mileage out of their Moussa Diabaté-Ryan Kalkbrenner combo at center, it wouldn't hurt to add another reliable option to the interior mix, especially with this league seemingly getting bigger and brawnier by the second.
Mara is a 7'3" paint presence who can control the restricted area on both sides. He could also add new dimensions to Charlotte's aerial attack, since he can both finish and throw lobs.
15. Oklahoma City Thunder (via LAC): Braylon Mullins, SG, UConn
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While Mullins ran a bit hot and cold at the NCAA Tournament, that stage still proved a great showcase for his deep range, supreme confidence and quick-strike mechanics.
The Thunder are basically unbeatable when their three-balls are falling—they average nearly two more triples in their wins than losses—but they haven't had the same frequency with those shots this season. As much as this roster has a need, shooting is probably the one.
16. Oklahoma City Thunder (via PHI): Jayden Quaintance, PF, Kentucky
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Unless Oklahoma City implements a cost-cutting strategy this summer, it probably doesn't need two incoming rookies. Maybe that convinces the Thunder to trade this pick (either to move up for someone they really like or to add to their future collection), but if they stay in this spot, they could take that same long-term view that led them toward Nikola Topić and Thomas Sorber in recent drafts.
Quaintance might need a longer runway than most, but there absolutely could be a pot of gold at the other end of his developmental rainbow. When he was healthy in college—as a 17-year-old freshman at Arizona State—he served as an intimidating, springy rim protector who looked just as comfortable and impactful handling perimeter switches.
17. Memphis Grizzlies (via PHO): Cameron Carr, SG, Baylor
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The Grizzlies could be short on shot-creation for the foreseeable future. While Carr wouldn't do much to scratch that itch, he could help the few creators they'll have as an athletic, sweet-shooting play-finisher.
Transferring to Baylor proved a true fortune-changer for Carr, who seldom saw the floor across two seasons at Tennessee. But with the Bears, he blew up as an ignitable (and team-leading) scorer with net-shredding, violent finishing and enough ball-handling to plot his path to the basket.
18. Charlotte Hornets (via ORL): Koa Peat, PF, Arizona
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Peat's showing at Arizona didn't exactly give a ringing endorsement to his long-term potential, but it highlighted all the ways he can help a winning team. He offers an intriguing mix of physicality and quick processing. He's a super-smart passer for a player of his size and playing style.
If he can just find consistency with his jumper, he could really be in business as a high-end glue guy. And that might be all the Hornets need if they feel sufficiently stocked with star power already.
19. Toronto Raptors: Hannes Steinbach, C, Washington
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While shooting is an obvious (and perhaps permanent) concern for the Raptors, backup bigs are a quieter need for this club. Particularly those who could contribute off the bench right away and eventually step into a starting spot, should Toronto ever find its way out of all the money still owed to Jakob Poeltl.
Steinbach's interior skills, activity on the glass and advanced instincts all have the 6'11" 19-year-old appearing ready for an immediate reserve role. Throw in flashes of legitimate spacing potential, and that's where you start to see a path toward him becoming a long-term starter.
20. San Antonio Spurs (via ATL): Thomas Haugh, SF/PF, Florida
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Maybe the Spurs feel emboldened by their rapid rise and want to take a bigger upside swing here. Or perhaps they'll be conscious of the real financial constraints of possessing a loaded roster under this collective bargaining agreement and instead desire someone they think can contribute on a cost-controlled rookie contract.
If the latter wins out, then Haugh should be firmly on the radar. His plug-and-play potential is obvious as a 6'9" spacer, finisher and dot-connecting passer.
21. Detroit Pistons (via MIN): Bennett Stirtz, PG, Iowa
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If it's possible for the Pistons to find the co-star Cade Cunningham needs in the draft, it probably isn't happening at this range. That said, Stirtz could supplement the offense in similar ways as Cunningham's ideal No. 2, since he's a knockdown shooter with enough handles and vision to pilot this offense in Cunningham's absence.
Stirtz will be physically challenged in all aspects at this level, but you never want to rule out someone with his skills and smarts.
22. Los Angeles Lakers: Motiejus Krivas, C, Arizona
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With the Lakers maybe not loving all aspects of the Deandre Ayton experience, and Jaxson Hayes headed toward unrestricted free agency, the center position could have this club's full attention at the draft.
Krivas may not be the athletic, explosive rim-runner who'd perhaps fit best with Luka Dončić, but he is a stingy paint protector, an energetic glass-cleaner and a deft finisher from close range. There's a throwback feel to Krivas' interior skills, but there are some modern enhancements with his passing vision and shooting potential.
23. Atlanta Hawks (via CLE): Christian Anderson, PG, Texas Tech
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If Anderson were bigger (6'3", 178 lbs) and more athletic, he might be pushing for lottery consideration right now. Since he isn't, he's probably getting drafted in the 20s (or later), allowing Atlanta an interesting option to increase its post-Trae Young backcourt scoring.
Anderson is a lights-out shooter off the dribble or off the ball. He is a tactician running pick-and-rolls. There are physical worries here, but his skills might win out.
24. Philadelphia 76ers (via HOU): Joshua Jefferson, PF, Iowa State
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The Sixers have options. They could seek out a plug-and-play prospect with hopes of maximizing whatever competitive window they have left with Joel Embiid and Paul George. Or they could swing for upside and hope to find a building block to slot alongside Tyrese Maxey and VJ Edgecombe.
Or they could maybe end two birds with a single stone by selecting Jefferson, who offers NBA-ready feel, footwork and strength but also ample long-term potential as he continues honing his craft as a jumbo-sized creator (6'9" 240 lbs). And that playmaking could shine bright on a team with several scoring options.
25. New York Knicks: Dailyn Swain, SF, Texas
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Between trade costs and contract extensions, the Knicks have made major investments in two-way wings Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby and Josh Hart. What they haven't managed to do is find any second-team wings of substance.
Swain could help attack that deficiency. His jumper needs work, but he is relentless going downhill, dynamic as a finisher and opportunistic as a defensive playmaker.
26. Denver Nuggets: Ebuka Okorie, PG, Stanford
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Backup point guard typically ranks near the top of Denver's wish list and likely will until someone stabilizes that spot. If Okorie ditches the college ranks for this draft, he could be up to that challenge.
His first-step burst looks blurry. He routinely renders defenders helpless with his separation skills and downhill drives. Okorie appears programmed more for scoring than table-setting, but he might share the rock more with the scoring help he didn't have at Stanford.
27. Boston Celtics: Amari Allen, SF/PF, Alabama
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If the Celtics draft for need, they could try targeting a center like Duke's Patrick Ngongba II or Florida's Alex Condon. But if they just go best player available—almost always the preferred option—Allen could be the one.
He is a 6'8" swingman with strong enough feel to serve as a connective playmaker. Allen possesses the physical ability to serve as a versatile defender. His improving outside shot should, at the very least, keep opponents honest.
28. Minnesota Timberwolves (via DET): Juke Harris, SF, Wake Forest
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The Wolves need support scoring. Harris appears to have plenty in his bag.
He plays hard, makes shots, gets downhill in a hurry and competes defensively. His profile just screams instant-energizer.
29. Cleveland Cavaliers (via SAS): Morez Johnson Jr., PF/C, Michigan
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The Cavaliers will likely want to give their frontcourt some attention this summer, whether that's building depth behind Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen or replacing one of them if a trade for one occurs.
Target Johnson here, and they'd add a 6'9", 250-pound wrecking ball with enough mobility and feel to offer elite versatility on defense. Cleveland will want reliable role players who can support stars and impact winning. Johnson just served in that exact capacity for the national champs.
30. Dallas Mavericks (via OKC): Chris Cenac Jr., PF, Houston
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The Mavericks should be fully focused on the future and intrigued about the ways Cenac might factor into it. He might have to reprogram his approach—better discipline on defense, more dirty-work interior duties on offense—but his potential should justify some patience.
He's an athletic 6'11" bouncy big power forward who glides around like a wing. If he converts his shooting from a theoretical strength into a tangible asset, he could electrify this frontcourt as a highlight reel-filling rim-runner with the unicorn combo of rim protecting and floor spacing.
