2026 Men's NCAA Tournament, B/R Expert Predictions for Second Round
Thursday's and Friday's nonstop action has trimmed the 2026 NCAA tournament with 32 programs headed to the second round.
For the second straight year, every top-four seed advanced. The primarily list of national championship contenders is still intact, and—right or wrong—you're destined to start hearing about a lack of parity in the sport.
But that doesn't mean the opening round stayed completely true to the chalk, as all four No. 9 seeds and four double-digit seeds moved into the weekend slate.
And if history has taught us anything, chaos is looming.
Bleacher Report's college basketball crew—David Kenyon, Kerry Miller and Joel Reuter—has assembled to preview and predict the second round.
No. 7 Miami vs. No. 2 Purdue
1 of 8
Details: Sunday at 12:10 p.m. ET (CBS)
One-Sentence Synopsis: Under first-year coach Jai Lucas, transfer-infused Miami is looking to upset a homegrown Purdue roster led by longtime boss Matt Painter.
Miami Wins If: The ugly, gritty and physical pieces of Miami's roster show up all game. In the victory over Missouri, the 'Canes grabbed 16 offensive rebounds, pushed in transition when possible and attempted 29 free throws.
Purdue Wins If: A deep collection of shooters takes advantage of Miami's vulnerable three-point defense. Tru Washington is a pesky defender, but overall the Hurricanes are 295th in guarding the perimeter. Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer and C.J. Cox combined for 10 triples in the triumph over Queens.
Star to Watch: Smith, a two-time All-American, is the most accomplished player on the floor. Malik Reneau was Miami's All-ACC selection, too. But when the 'Canes need a play, they count on Tre Donaldson. He stuffed the box score with 17 points, eight rebounds, six assists and four steals to lift Miami past Missouri.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Purdue
Kerry Miller: Purdue
Joel Reuter: Purdue
No. 7 Kentucky vs. No. 2 Iowa State
2 of 8
Details: Sunday at 2:45 p.m. ET (CBS)
One-Sentence Synopsis: Suddenly short-handed Iowa State must adapt to its disappointing new reality in a showdown with Kentucky.
Kentucky Wins If: Missed shots keep finding their way into UK's hands. Iowa State, in all seven losses, grabbed no more than a 46.3 percent share of total rebounds. Kentucky is not exactly a dominant rebounding team yet holds a clear size advantage since ISU is without an All-American forward.
Iowa State Wins If: The loss of Joshua Jefferson (ankle) does not derail what has made the Cyclones so dangerous. That's easier said than done, considering the offensive versatility and defensive instincts of the 6'9" forward. His floor-spacing, passing and activity will be missed. Killyan Toure and Nate Heise both surpassing 20 points in the first-round win is a reminder of Iowa State's depth, though.
Star to Watch: Jefferson's absence is set to place a brighter spotlight on Tamin Lipsey, a pesky defender and integral playmaker. Jefferson was the only other player averaging more than 2.2 assists. Lipsey's usage rate may skyrocket.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Kentucky
Kerry Miller: Kentucky
Joel Reuter: Iowa State
No. 5 St. John's vs. No. 4 Kansas
3 of 8
Details: Sunday at 5:15 p.m. ET (CBS)
One-Sentence Synopsis: Not since 1952—when Kansas beat St. John's to win a national title—have these programs met in the NCAA tournament.
St. John's Wins If: Its traditional brand of pesky defense does not allow Kansas to shake a recent cold streak. Even in Friday's win, the Jayhawks shot 40 percent from the floor with a 21.1 clip beyond the arc. Kansas has only converted 50-plus percent of its shots once since the start of February.
Kansas Wins If: The defense is relentless in contesting two-pointers. St. John's places an emphasis on crashing the offensive glass, partly because its perimeter group is average at best. Kansas needs to take pride in winning that end.
Star to Watch: This summer, Darryn Peterson will be a top-three NBA draft pick. First, however, he's hoping to write a positive chapter to close a strange one-and-done season at Kansas. Peterson lit up Cal Baptist for 28 points.
Predictions
David Kenyon: St. John's
Kerry Miller: St. John's
Joel Reuter: St. John's
No. 6 Tennessee vs. No. 3 Virginia
4 of 8
Details: Sunday at 6:10 p.m. ET (TNT)
One-Sentence Synopsis: Two defense-driven teams will attempt to scrap out enough offense and reach the second weekend.
Tennessee Wins If: Star freshman Nate Ament (ankle) is a net-positive while he battles a lingering injury. He went scoreless in 18 minutes during the comfortable win against Miami (Ohio), but the Vols are perilously thin on consistent offense after Ja'Kobi Gillespie and lately J.P. Estrella.
Virginia Wins If: The perimeter mostly belongs to the Hoos. Gillespie just buried six threes in Friday's victory, so his danger is apparent. Yet after him, Ament is the lone UT player who averages one triple per game. Virginia, meanwhile, has a stable of shooters and should be able to win that important category.
Star to Watch: Another key freshman in this contest is UVA forward Thijs De Ridder. The team's leading scorer and rebounder, De Ridder began his NCAA tournament with 10 points and six boards against Wright State.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Virginia
Kerry Miller: Tennessee
Joel Reuter: Tennessee
No. 9 Iowa vs. No. 1 Florida
5 of 8
Details: Sunday at 7:10 p.m. ET (TBS)
One-Sentence Synopsis: Eyeing a first Sweet 16 appearance since 1999, Iowa is taking its shot at the defending national champions.
Iowa Wins If: The pace grinds to a crawl as the Hawkeyes make their presence known on the offensive glass. Florida has the nation's 27th-fastest tempo, per KenPom, while Iowa is the fifth-slowest. Iowa cannot play UF's game. Burn the clock, keep possessions alive and the Hawkeyes have a chance.
Florida Wins If: An outstanding frontcourt is a menace on both ends of the court. Rueben Chinyelu, Alex Condon and Thomas Haugh each average at least 11 points, six rebounds and a block. Iowa's bigs cannot match that production.
Star to Watch: The great equalizer is Bennett Stirtz, a second-team All-Big Ten selection. He struggled a bit against Iowa but still finished with 16 points. Stirtz will be the best playmaker on the floor.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Florida
Kerry Miller: Florida
Joel Reuter: Florida
No. 9 Utah State vs. No. 1 Arizona
6 of 8
Details: Sunday at 7:50 p.m. ET (truTV)
One-Sentence Synopsis: Arizona's road to competing for a national title now runs through Utah State, a program with 20 straight NCAA tourney appearances that ended shy of a Sweet 16 bid.
Utah State Wins If: A season-best offensive day propels the Aggies. They've done a terrific job scoring inside the arc, and their perimeter shooting is quality. Taking on Arizona is a major ask, given that Utah State hasn't played a top-seeded, high-major opponent all year—but anything is possible in one-game samples!
Arizona Wins If: Nothing silly happens. Look, the Aggies are a formidable opponent. But we would be lying to suggest that Arizona is anything but a sturdy favorite in this contest. Avoid a bunch of turnovers, don't allow a ton of offensive rebounds and so on. All that fundamental business.
Star to Watch: This is a "take your pick" scenario with Arizona, which has several outstanding players. The steadying force is Jaden Bradley, a junior guard who tallied four assists and three steals in Friday's rout of Long Island.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Arizona
Kerry Miller: Arizona
Joel Reuter: Arizona
No. 7 UCLA vs. No. 2 Connecticut
7 of 8
Details: Sunday at 8:45 p.m. ET (TNT)
One-Sentence Synopsis: Two of the most accomplished programs in all of college basketball history are poised for a second-ever meeting in March Madness, previously playing in the 1995 Elite Eight.
UCLA Wins If: With or without top scorer Tyler Bilodeau (knee), the Bruins' ball movement is dynamic. They've defeated four top-10 opponents this season and registered 20-plus assists in three of those victories. More specifically, Donovan Dent averaged 12 assists in that set of games.
UConn Wins If: UCLA struggles to make a dent on the perimeter. Not until Friday against 10th-seeded UCF had UCLA beaten an NCAA tournament team without burying nine triples. Only seven opponents have hit that number on UConn.
Star to Watch: It doesn't seem possible, but Tarris Reed Jr. outrebounded Furman by himself in the first round. He brought down 27 misses, while Furman grabbed 23. Reed, the Huskies' leading scorer, had 31 points on the night.
Predictions
David Kenyon: UConn
Kerry Miller: UConn
Joel Reuter: UConn
No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 5 Texas Tech
8 of 8
Details: Sunday at 9:45 p.m. ET (TBS)
One-Sentence Synopsis: Both without a key player, Alabama and Texas Tech are vying for a cathartic Sweet 16 appearance.
Alabama Wins If: JT Toppin's absence in the paint is more of a problem than Aden Holloway not roaming the backcourt. Alabama is a perimeter-focused team but shows flashes of great offensive rebounding, something to which Texas Tech has been vulnerable since Toppin's knee injury.
Texas Tech Wins If: The complementary scorers are on fire again. Jaylen Petty tallied a team-high 24 points in the triumph over Akron, and three others provided at least 14 points in addition to Christian Anderson's typical 18.
Star to Watch: Labaron Philon exploded in the second half to vault Alabama past a stingy Hofstra team. The sophomore guard scored 21 of his 29 points after the break and dished seven assists, as well.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Alabama
Kerry Miller: Alabama
Joel Reuter: Texas Tech
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