Biggest X-Factor for Every NBA Team with 3 Weeks To Go
As we near the end of the 2025-26 NBA season, it's time to examine the X-factors for every team in the league.
Now, you might be wondering, "How can the losing teams have X-factors?" But even those trending toward the top of the lottery have pretty clear goals that could be reinforced or altered by individual players or other team factors. The winning teams have so-called X-factors (or potential X-factors) too.
To the extent possible, we'll try to avoid talking about superstars here. Of course, the Los Angeles Lakers' title pursuit will be heavily influenced by how well Luka Dončić plays. That's too obvious. Instead, we're looking for the players or factors that are a bit more subtle but could still bring serious implications.
Atlanta Hawks: Jonathan Kuminga
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Jonathan Kuminga has only appeared in four games for the Atlanta Hawks, but he's averaging 16.5 points, 8.0 rebounds, and 3.0 assists in just 24.8 minutes. His total plus-minus in those four games is 19.
And while the Hawks' starting five (especially since they replaced Zaccharie Risacher with CJ McCollum) is probably too well established for Kuminga to make much of a difference there, his length and athleticism could supercharge the second unit.
Of course, that assumes he can get and stay healthy before a postseason run. That's not a given. And actually, that's part of why he's the X-factor. If he's healthy, Atlanta has another potentially dynamic scorer to carry the offense for short stints without Jalen Johnson. If he's not, there's a much heavier load for Risacher and Corey Kispert.
Boston Celtics: Jayson Tatum
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At the outset, we said we'd try to avoid stars. And that only lasted one team, but the case here is unique.
Jayson Tatum was a perennial All-NBA forward prior to tearing his Achilles. At the start of the season, Tatum missing all of it seemed like a realistic possibility. But he's already back, with a few weeks to go before the playoffs.
That gives him some time to get his regular-season legs under him. And even if he can only get back to 90 percent of his old self, plugging that player into 25-30 of the minutes that were long occupied by younger players like Baylor Scheierman and Jordan Walsh could take Boston from Eastern Conference contender to Eastern Conference favorite.
Brooklyn Nets: The Rookies
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The Brooklyn Nets, like several other teams we'll look at over the course of this slideshow, need losses.
And the best way to do that will almost certainly involve more minutes for the five 2025 first-round picks currently on the roster.
Advanced numbers suggest none of Egor Dёmin, Danny Wolf, Drake Powell, Ben Saraf, or Nolan Traoré have played anywhere near a starter's level. Powell, Saraf, and Traoré have arguably been some of the worst players in the league this season.
And that's fine. Rookies need time to grow. Playing them now helps accomplish that, while also increasing the likelihood of adding more losses.
Charlotte Hornets: Coby White
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The Charlotte Hornets trading Collin Sexton for Coby White probably made some sense to casual NBA observers.
For years, White has probably been known as the more explosive scorer. And he makes about $6 million less than Sexton this year.
But over the last three seasons, Sexton is 123rd in the league in box plus/minus, while White is 233rd. And in this campaign, specifically, the new Hornet hasn't been as productive as the old one.
If that trend holds, Charlotte's prospects for winning a first-round series certainly aren't as good as they'd be if White figures out how to impact the game more consistently.
Chicago Bulls: Matas Buzelis
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The Chicago Bulls probably won a little too much earlier in the season to meaningfully chase lottery odds now. That makes it harder to pick an X-factor who'd help them lose more games.
So, for a team stuck in the league's purgatory, we'll focus on the only young talent on the roster who might be able to pull them out of it.
Matas Buzelis may not look like a surefire star, but he's only 21 and has shown more upside than anyone else on the roster.
From here till the end of the season, Chicago should prioritize his playing time and scoring opportunities. Give him as many minutes as the alpha as possible. Tweak the offense and set plays to get him more looks.
His experience should now lay the foundation for what he'll be for years to come.
Cleveland Cavaliers: Max Strus
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This is a lot like the Boston Celtics slide, though on a lesser scale.
Max Strus, who made his season debut this week, isn't the player Tatum is, but introducing a wing who's averaged 11.1 points, 2.6 assists, and 2.5 threes, while shooting 37.3 percent from deep, over the last five years to a playoff rotation in March could alter the landscape of the East.
Strus' shooting, particularly his ability to get threes up in volume, could go a long way toward pulling defensive attention away from Donovan Mitchell and James Harden. And that should make it more difficult for opposing defenses to scheme for the Cleveland Cavaliers in the postseason.
Dallas Mavericks: Cooper Flagg
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The Dallas Mavericks are another team that should probably be chasing losses at this point in the season, and it's their rookie star who may be impeding that pursuit.
Despite being in a bit of a slump since he returned from injury, Cooper Flagg is averaging 20.2 points, 6.6 rebounds, 4.4 assists, 1.1 steals, and 0.9 blocks.
If he maintains that level of productivity through the end of the season, the chances of the Mavericks sneaking into the bottom five records (and giving themselves a better-than-10-percent chance to land the No. 1 pick) aren't great.
That might lead especially tank-happy fans to wonder about shutting Flagg down for the season, but this is also an important stretch for him to keep adding experience as his team's top offensive option.
Denver Nuggets: Peyton Watson
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It'd be easy to go with Aaron Gordon here. Since he joined the team, the Denver Nuggets have been plus-9.2 points per 100 possessions with Gordon on the floor and minus-1.5 when he's off.
And with the amount of time he's missed with hamstring and calf injuries over the years, it feels like Denver's title odds could be directly tied to his availability.
His health is also what makes Peyton Watson so important. Gordon's absence is almost a given at this point, but it's not felt as significantly when Watson is available.
What Watson showed as a one-on-one scorer during Nikola Jokić's absence is big too. From December 31 through February 1, he averaged 22.5 points, 2.8 assists, and 2.5 threes. If he can bring that kind of production to the second unit, Denver will be far more likely to survive non-Jokić minutes.
Detroit Pistons: Non-Cade Playmaking
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Cade Cunningham is understandably getting some MVP buzz. He won't finish close to the top when the votes are calculated, but he'll certainly get a handful of fifth, fourth, and maybe even third-place votes for his playmaking.
But at least part of how productive Cade has been as a distributor has something to do with how little help he's had on that front.
Daniss Jenkins has been a fun story, and Ausar Thompson is clearly still developing as a distributor, but the Pistons don't have a star (or even near-star) level secondary creator. That could mean tons of defensive attention and pressure on Cunningham in the playoffs.
Jenkins, Thompson, and especially Caris LeVert will have to be a little more explosive to relieve that pressure. LeVert hasn't had a double-figure scoring game since January 17. He's the one guard in that trio with a 20-point-per-game season in his past.
Golden State Warriors: Stephen Curry
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Alright, we're breaking from the intro again. This time, for one of the greatest players of all time.
But there's a good reason we're going with Stephen Curry here. He's been out for weeks, and the Golden State Warriors have unsurprisingly slipped below .500. If he comes back, they'll be competitive again.
And therein lies the reason to be ultra conservative with his return timeline. Without Jimmy Butler, the Warriors have next to no chance of winning a first-round series. Tanking the play-in and going to the lottery will be more valuable in the long run.
And I fully expect Golden State to approach the rest of the season (and Curry's recovery) with that in mind.
Houston Rockets: Reed Sheppard
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He's cooled considerably since the first couple of months of the season, but Reed Sheppard is still averaging 13.5 points and 3.2 assists, while shooting 39.0 percent from deep.
And for the season, Kevin Durant's point differential per 100 possessions is better when he shares the floor with Sheppard than it is when he doesn't.
All the more reason for coach Ime Udoka to more fully embrace Sheppard's game and minutes.
Houston's offensive identity has withered since losing Steven Adams and his offensive rebounding. Playing Sheppard as a full-time 1, even with only a few weeks left in the season, could help the Rockets find a new one.
Indiana Pacers: The Injury Report
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In this gap year without the recovering Tyrese Haliburton, the Indiana Pacers have had a whopping 27 players appear in a game for them this season.
Right now, Haliburton, Johnny Furphy (both out for the year), Andrew Nembhard, Ben Sheppard, Pascal Siakam, T.J. McConnell, Ivica Zubac, Aaron Nesmith, Quenton Jackson, Obi Toppin, and Micah Potter are all on the injury report.
And you can be sure the team will be very cautious about the return timelines for all of them.
Expect a handful more season debuts from players on 10-day or two-way contracts. Expect plenty more funky lineups. And expect more losses between now and the end of the season.
The Pacers are doing what's right for their organization. If this campaign results in the addition of one of this draft class' potential stars, this will have been worth it.
Los Angeles Clippers: Bennedict Mathurin
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There's an argument for Darius Garland (or more specifically, his health) in this spot. But Bennedict Mathurin figures more likely to have an impact (for better or worse).
He's already appeared in 15 games as a Los Angeles Clipper and is averaging 20.1 points. He's having a positive (and significant) impact on the team's net rating. That's the good.
On the other hand, Mathurin is shooting 19.6 percent from three as a Clipper. And his assist-to-turnover ratio is a pretty rough 2.3-to-2.1.
If he can find some consistency as an outside shooter, L.A. could be one of the tougher outs in the playoffs. If not, his mistakes on both ends of the floor could doom the Clippers to another early exit.
Los Angeles Lakers: Marcus Smart
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Most of the analysis of the Los Angeles Lakers' recent surge has understandably revolved around Luka Dončić, followed shortly thereafter by what appears to be an improving ability to work with LeBron James.
But those two (and to a lesser extent, Austin Reaves) figuring out how to coexist was probably always going to happen. They're among the most cerebral offensive players in league history.
The biggest X-factor is Marcus Smart, whose defense and shooting have been a huge part of the recent wins. Since February 28, L.A. is 8-1, with Smart averaging 10.1 points and 2.6 steals, while shooting 41.3 percent from deep.
And for the entire season, the Lakers are allowing significantly fewer points per 100 possessions when Smart is on the floor.
If he continues to defend at the level he did during his Defensive Player of the Year campaign and occasionally hits some big jumpers, the Lakers may yet prove to be a title contender.
Memphis Grizzlies: Ty Jerome
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The Memphis Grizzlies are another team that should be (and for all intents and purposes, is) hunting losses.
They already unloaded Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr. in rebuild-focused trades, and now they need foundational talents to replace them.
They're probably not on the roster right now, which makes the 2026 draft their chance to cash in.
And among the players currently logging minutes for the team, Ty Jerome is the one likeliest to mess with Memphis' lottery odds.
He's averaging 20.1 points and 5.4 assists in just 22.1 minutes, while shooting 40.5 percent from deep. That kind of production, even in so few minutes, can turn a tanking loss into a devastating win.
Miami Heat: Davion Mitchell
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Bam Adebayo, Norman Powell, Tyler Herro (despite missing most of the season with injuries), Andrew Wiggins, and maybe even Jaime Jaquez Jr. generate the most headlines or attention for the Miami Heat, but Davion Mitchell has quietly been one of their steadier players.
And if Mitchell can continue to provide the defense, playmaking, and outside shooting that he has throughout this season, Miami could have a shot at a first-round upset.
This season, Mitchell is averaging 6.6 assists, 1.2 threes, and 1.0 steals, while shooting 41.8 percent from deep, making him one of just two players (with Jamal Murray being the other) to average at least six, one, and one, while shooting at least 40 percent from three.
Milwaukee Bucks: Giannis Antetokounmpo
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Will the Milwaukee Bucks shut Giannis Antetokounmpo down?
Given the disaster this season has been to this point, that's really the only legitimate question left to be asked.
They haven't won much since Giannis returned from injury, but continuing to play him risks at least two things.
One, of course, is that the Bucks are likelier to win some games and hurt their lottery odds if Giannis is on the floor. Two, Antetokounmpo is open to the chance of injury if he continues to play. That, of course, could affect the prospects of a trade this summer.
Milwaukee should almost certainly just call it a season and sit Giannis for the rest of it. But this organization has rarely been driven by what it should do since winning the title in 2021.
Minnesota Timberwolves: Donte DiVincenzo
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Anthony Edwards is obviously doing what he can to stretch the floor, but starting Julius Randle and Rudy Gobert means things are almost certainly going to be tight.
That's what makes Donte DiVincenzo's shooting so crucial. When he takes and makes them at a high volume, the Minnesota Timberwolves look like a juggernaut. They're 21-6 when he drills at least four (and 20-21 in all other games).
Regardless of who has the ball, finding DiVincenzo when he's open beyond the arc could go a long way toward making the T'Wolves a little more consistent.
New Orleans Pelicans: Dejounte Murray
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The New Orleans Pelicans' still hard-to-fathom trade that sent an unprotected 2026 first-round pick to the Atlanta Hawks for Derik Queen makes the end of this season almost completely meaningless.
They're too far shy of 10th place to meaningfully challenge for a play-in spot. But losing obviously doesn't help them either. All that does is improve the Hawks' chance of getting the first overall pick.
So the next few weeks are all about trying to pick out some sources of hope for the future. And though he's already 29, Dejounte Murray may be one.
He's averaging 19.8 points, 5.3 assists, and 1.8 steals in just 27.0 minutes. And if he can keep up that kind of production into next season (he's under contract through 2027-28, when he has a $30.8 million player option), lineups piloted by Murray and populated by Zion Williamson, Trey Murphy III, and Saddiq Bey could be a nightmare to defend.
New York Knicks: Mikal Bridges
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Oddly enough, Mikal Bridges' biggest scoring games don't correlate with winning all that often, but he's also been far too prone to come up shy of 10 points of late. And in the 11 games Bridges has failed to reach double-figures, New York is a ho-hum 6-5.
Considering what the Knicks surrendered to land Bridges in a trade (four unprotected firsts, one protected one, and one swap), that many appearances with that few points should be darn-near unacceptable.
If Bridges can be, at the very least, not invisible, New York has the potential to represent the East in the Finals. But one of his no-show scoring nights at the exact wrong moment could cost the Knicks their ability to contend.
Oklahoma City Thunder: Jalen Williams
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Jalen Williams was the Oklahoma City Thunder's second-best player during their run to the 2025 title. In the Finals alone, he averaged 23.6 points and had a 40-point performance in OKC's Game 5 win.
That the Thunder are on pace for 60 wins with Williams missing most of the campaign is both remarkable and terrifying. If they get him back anywhere near full strength for the playoffs, OKC could be borderline unbeatable.
There's no guarantee he gets there, but the Thunder's conservative approach to his current hamstring injury should at least give him a chance.
Orlando Magic: Franz Wagner
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Yet another star who's spent most of the season on the injured list, Franz Wagner could dramatically alter the playoff landscape of the East if he comes back in time for a playoff run.
Over the course of his career, the Orlando Magic are plus-1.3 points per 100 possessions with Wagner on the floor and minus-7.3 when he's off.
With his slashing and playmaking, everything else on offense suddenly seems to make more sense. And his impact on the defensive end may be about as big. His switchability, willingness to take on tough matchups, and knack for always being in the right spot in rotations make him a key cog on that end.
Without him, the Magic are likely a first-round out. With him, there's at least a chance Orlando makes a run.
Philadelphia 76ers: Joel Embiid
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We might as well keep the theme alive.
The Philadelphia 76ers are another team that's battled through this 2025-26 campaign without its best (or at least, one of its best) players. In their case, that's obviously Joel Embiid.
He's now been in the league since 2014 and has rarely made it to the end of a season in even moderately good health. Since he's out now, it's probably ridiculous to expect that of him in 2026.
But... if the Sixers can somehow get Embiid upright in time for the postseason, and then keep him that way throughout it, they have enough raw talent to make it all the way to the Finals.
When healthy, Embiid is one of the greatest scorers the league has ever seen. Tyrese Maxey has developed into an All-NBA-caliber guard. And Paul George, who should be back from suspension before the playoffs, brings defense, shooting, and experience.
Phoenix Suns: Three-Point Shooting
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In today's NBA, you could probably list three-point shooting as the biggest X-factor for every team and concoct a meaningful explanation all 30 times.
But it feels particularly important for the Phoenix Suns.
They're somehow in the top half of the league in three-point percentage, but their three leading scorers are way below average.
Right now, Devin Booker, Dillon Brooks, and Jalen Green are shooting a combined 33.1 percent from deep. And the Suns are winning in spite of that.
If one or two were to get hot for a series, Phoenix could prove a much more difficult out than it seems to be right now.
Portland Trail Blazers: Deni Avdija
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The Portland Trail Blazers are another team that should be angling pretty openly for losses.
The bottom five in the West will make it nearly impossible for Portland to miss the play-in, but the Blazers only keep their 2026 first-round pick if it's in the lottery.
The incentive to lose those win-or-go-home games is strong. And that means Deni Avdija will be uniquely important.
He's good enough to singlehandedly swing a game. And in a format like the play-in, that could be enough to cost the Blazers their pick.
They have some intriguing young talent, but Avdija is the only real star (or player who even looks like a future star). Contention will almost certainly require another, and the 2026 draft could offer several.
Sacramento Kings: The Vets
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It's time to shut down all of the Sacramento Kings' vets.
For most of the season, and despite the team's apparent intentions headed into it, DeMar DeRozan, Russell Westbrook, and Zach LaVine helped Sacramento cruise toward a bottom-three record and its best possible chance at the top pick in 2026.
But now, on the verge of stumbling backward into immense fortune, the Kings have suddenly won four of their last five. DeRozan is averaging 29.8 points in this stretch. Russ is averaging a triple-double.
Some kind of nagging issue or soft-tissue damage should probably show up on the injury report soon. Whatever it takes, Sacramento, which is suddenly no longer in the bottom three, needs to start losing again.
San Antonio Spurs: The Three-Guard Lineup
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Listing the San Antonio Spurs' "three-guard lineup" as if it's already a thing is a little misleading. De'Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, and Dylan Harper have played a grand total of 52 possessions together. Over the course of a full season, that's essentially nothing.
But at some point, the Spurs are going to have to see if those three can play together. Better now than in the playoffs or at some point next year.
If it works, San Antonio could suddenly have another look to throw at postseason opponents, one with loads of playmaking that could come from anywhere. If it doesn't, at least the Spurs would have a better idea of what it's equipped to do before a make-or-break game.
Toronto Raptors: Gradey Dick
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Despite his scoring dropping off a cliff (from 14.4 points last season to 6.2 in this one) and his three-point percentage plummeting (from 35.0 to 30.1), Gradey Dick has appeared in almost every Toronto Raptors game this season.
And the team's point differential is actually better with him on the floor.
The mere threat of his shooting is helping, at least to a degree. And if those threes start falling, Toronto is going to be a tougher puzzle to solve than it is right now.
Scottie Barnes is having an All-Star-caliber campaign, but he would be even more effective with more consistent outside shooting around him. At least in theory, Dick should be able to provide that.
Utah Jazz: Lauri Markkanen
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The league tried to make an example of the Utah Jazz by fining them $500,000 for sitting players down the stretch who played earlier in a game. But the move has done little to dissuade Utah (or any of the other teams just as transparently tanking) from pursuing what's best for the franchise.
The Jazz are leaning as hard into lineups made up almost exclusively of young players as they ever have, and Lauri Markkanen is on the injury report with a hip impingement and bone bruise.
If he returns to action before the playoffs, Utah risks weakening its chance of securing the top pick in the draft, which is more than enough reason to take his recovery as slowly and carefully as possible.
Washington Wizards: Trae Young
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Trae Young has now appeared in four games for the Washington Wizards. They're getting absolutely walloped in his minutes, which is obviously fine. They're another team that should be after losses for these final three weeks.
But seeing him in action can at least give the team and its fans some idea of what the Young-led attack will look like next season.
And though it obviously isn't a full picture without Anthony Davis, just seeing Young consistently set up some of the younger players on the roster would give us something to look forward to.
