NCAA Tournament 2026 Predictions for Men's Sweet 16 Bracket After Selection Sunday

The 2026 NCAA men's basketball tournament is a top-heavy bracket.

The four No. 1 seeds have been dominant forces for most of the season and the Nos. 2-4 seeds have strong resumes as well.

Upsets will always occur in the Big Dance, but there may be fewer surprise results in the first weekend this year because of the quality of the top teams.

If that's the case, we could be in for some epic matchups in the Sweet 16 and beyond.

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East Region

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Duke has a clear path to the Sweet 16.

The Blue Devils proved in the ACC tournament that they can win big games, even without the injured pair of Caleb Foster and Patrick Ngongba.

Cameron Boozer should carry the Blue Devils through their first two games of the tournament, like he did throughout the ACC regular season and tournament.

Darryn Peterson has the potential to do the exact same thing for No. 4 seed Kansas.

Peterson will be the best player on the floor in any of Kansas' opening-weekend matchups.

Imagine how much buzz a Boozer-versus-Peterson matchup would generate in the Sweet 16. That would be a dream matchup for college basketball fans and NBA fans looking at top prospects in the draft class.

UCLA is a fascinating team in the bottom half of the East region, especially if Donovan Dent plays at a high level.

The Bruins could test UConn, but if the Huskies play at their best, they should leave Philadelphia with a Sweet 16 spot.

The same applies to Michigan State, the No. 3 seed in the East. The Spartans should be able to deal with either Louisville or South Florida in the second round.

If chalk holds, the East regional in Washington D.C. would feature absolute powerhouses of the sport.

Sweet 16 Prediction: 1. Duke vs. 4. Kansas, 2. UConn vs. 3. Michigan State

South Region

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Florida and Houston are the pillars of the South region.

The Gators are the reigning champion and No. 1 seed in the region, but if they reach the Elite Eight, they could play a road game in Houston against the second-seeded Cougars.

The path seems clear for both programs to reach the Sweet 16. Houston could be in for a rock fight with No. 7 Saint Mary's, but the Cougars are suited to play a lower-scoring game, unlike some other high-paced power-conference squads.

Illinois and North Carolina are both potentially vulnerable in the bottom half of the bracket.

Illinois lost five of its last nine games and faces a tricky matchup against Ivy League champion Penn, who is coached by former Iowa coach Fran McCaffrey.

North Carolina isn't the same team without Caleb Wilson and it could struggle against A-10 tournament champion VCU.

VCU has a single loss since January 10. It is more than capable of knocking off both UNC and Illinois to reach the second weekend.

Nebraska started the season 20-0, but then it finished 6-6. The Huskers need to rediscover some of that early-season magic to make a run to the Sweet 16.

Vanderbilt made a surprise run to the SEC tournament final by beating Florida in the semifinals. The Commodores could play the Gators again in the Sweet 16.

Sweet 16 Prediction: 1. Florida vs. 5. Vanderbilt, 11. VCU vs. 2. Houston

West Region

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Arizona has an ideal draw to reach the Sweet 16.

The Wildcats should cruise past LIU and then shouldn't face much of a challenge against Villanova and Utah State, both of whom lost multiple games late in February.

Arkansas got a tough draw. It won the SEC tournament final in Nashville on Sunday and now has to play Thursday afternoon in Portland.

Darius Acuff was fantastic in Nashville, and if he plays well again in Portland, the Razorbacks won't have to use the schedule as an excuse.

Wisconsin can score with anyone, and it has one of the best top-tier resumes in the country with victories over Illinois, Purdue, Michigan State and Michigan.

The Badgers have gotten up for big games all season, so they should be able to handle Acuff and the Razorbacks.

Gonzaga and Purdue feel like safe picks to reach the Sweet 16. The Zags should run away against Kennesaw State and beat a depleted BYU team.

Purdue, led by point guard Braden Smith, earned eight of its last 10 victories by holding opponents under 70 points.

If that defense translates to the first weekend of the Big Dance, the Boilermakers will be in great shape.

Sweet 16 Prediction: 1. Arizona vs. 5. Wisconsin, 3. Gonzaga vs. 2. Purdue

Midwest Region

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The Midwest region looks to be where the upsets will happen.

Michigan should be fine through the first two rounds, but Texas Tech, Alabama and Kentucky are among some of the higher variance teams in the country right now.

Texas Tech has been on the downswing since J.T. Toppin's season-ending injury. The Red Raiders have a difficult first-round matchup with MAC tournament champion Akron.

Alabama just lost to SEC tournament No. 15 seed Ole Miss on Friday. The Crimson Tide are one of the best three-point shooting teams when they are on, but if they struggle from that part of the court, they could be in trouble.

Akron enters the Big Dance on a 10-game winning streak in which scored over 70 points in every game. The Zips could be perfectly constructed to knock off Texas Tech and Alabama.

Kentucky drew a tough matchup against Santa Clara out of the WCC. The winner of that game will likely struggle with Iowa State. The Cyclones are one of the most well-rounded teams in the country.

Virginia is playing tremendous basketball right now, especially with its defense down low. The Cavaliers could make things look easy in Philadelphia over two rounds.

Sweet 16 Prediction: 1. Michigan vs. 12. Akron, 3. Virginia vs. 2. Iowa State