The Biggest NASCAR Storylines to Watch Ahead of the Cheez-It 355
Watkins Glen plays host to the Cheez-It 355, a serpentine road course that’s as delicious as a box of orange, cheese-inspired crackers1.
What a joy to see drivers forced to turn left and right for 355 miles, and on top of that there’s only five races to go in the regular season. That means the Chase is getting chase-ier. As if that wasn't enough, the chase for the Chase gets even more pressurized with guys pointing in and others orbiting on the fringe begging for a win.
That’s the case every week, but the fuse on the dynamite shrinks week after week until it explodes at Richmond.
AJ Allmendinger weaved his way into the Chase with his first career Sprint Cup win in 2014. He’s a genetically modified road-driving organism bred for the sole purpose of road courses. It's now or never for the No. 47 car.
For now, before these drivers hit the road in upstate New York for another crack at the postseason, let’s look at this week’s storylines.
Can you say ’Dinger?
*1: How many Cheez-Its can you fit into your mouth at one time?
Can Hendrick Motorsports Rebound?
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The NASCAR monolith that is Hendrick Motorsports isn’t as monolithian in 2015. Sure, it sports six wins on the season, but that is spread across two of its four drivers: Jimmie Johnson (four) and Dale Earnhardt Jr. (two).
Kasey Kahne and Jeff Gordon are meandering on the brink of Chase elimination in the final quadrant of the Chase Grid. Only Joe Gibbs Racing1, Team Penske and Furniture Row can boast that all of their drivers are Chase-bound—not so for HMS.
Kahne can’t get a whiff of the top 10, and who knows what will happen with Gordon's No. 24 car.
FoxSports.com’s Larry McReynolds wrote, “When it does kick off, the two places that are always the measuring stick for them are Dover and Martinsville. Dover naturally more so for the No. 48 team and Martinsville for the entire organization but they just seem to be missing something right now.”
That something is called mojo. Right now Joe Gibbs Racing has more mojo than Austin Powers. HMS had much of it early in the season, with Johnson and Earnhardt winning a chunk of races. Will they have enough horsepower once they reach the Chase? And how many HMS drivers will, in fact, make the Chase and contend for the Sprint Cup?
*1: Can we assume, at this point, Kyle Busch will reach the top 30? I think so.
So, Can Jeff Gordon Earn That Elusive Win?
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Speaking of Hendrick Motorsports, the soon-to-be-retired Jeff Gordon had one of his best performances of the season at Pocono Raceway. This should come as no surprise, seeing as he’s won a record six races at the Tricky Triangle.
“Sometimes you need just something to pull you through it,” Gordon said in Jerry Bonkowski’s NASCARTalk.com story, “and last week got us down quite a bit. This is definitely going to lift us back up. I think it’s not about carrying momentum, it’s about getting momentum, and I think this is the beginning of hopefully what can get us the momentum we need to get where we need to.”
He finished third in the Windows 10 400, and that could be the trampoline he needs to bound into Victory Lane at The Glen. Gordon has an impressive four wins at Watkins Glen, but there is somewhat of a caveat: He hasn’t won there in 14 years and hasn’t been inside the top 10 since 2007.
He did win the pole in last year’s renewal of the Cheez-It 355, but he followed that up by finishing 34th.
Gordon appears safe on the Chase Grid in 12th place, but a win by someone outside the Grid would drop him to 13th and so on throughout the rest of the shortening regular season.
Chase Scenarios Take Hold
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The Chase burns bright on the horizon, and only five drivers have clinched a spot: Jimmie Johnson, Kevin Harvick, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Matt Kenseth and Kurt Busch—all multiple winners in 2015.
The next tier includes drivers who, yes, are in, but they need another win to secure a spot: Joey Logano, Martin Truex Jr., Brad Keselowski, Denny Hamlin and Carl Edwards.
Then there’s the non-winners: Jamie McMurray, Paul Menard, Ryan Newman, Clint Bowyer, Kasey Kahne and the relentless Jeff Gordon, who followed his 42nd-place finish at Indianapolis with a third-place effort at Pocono.
Gordon said in Stu Hothem’s NASCAR.com story:
"As a team, even though we're not performing to the level we want to, we are performing well enough to make it into the Chase. If you knew that you were going to finish between 10th and 15th every week here going forward, but just like what happened last week, you can't afford to have many 42nd-place finishes. That could be disastrous. There are no guarantees, and so you've got to gain all the points you can when you have the opportunity.
"
Like September in baseball, August for NASCAR begins the watch for who’s in and who’s out of the Chase.
Let’s not forget that Kyle Busch's looming presence hangs over this entire scenario. Should he crack the top 30, that kicks everyone down a notch.
This will only intensify as we go forward over the next month.
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Will Kevin Harvick Snap Out of His 'Funk'?
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Ask the 42 other drivers in most Sprint Cup starting lineups and they’ll all take Kevin Harvick’s “slump.” This little hiccup, if you even want to go there, has seen him finish outside the top 10 just twice since the Coke 600: 29th at Kentucky and 42nd at Pocono.
But for a driver of his ability, not winning since Phoenix on March 15—nearly five months and 18 races—there’s some cause for concern for the No. 4 team, because when it’s Chase time, wins matter more than ever.
An engine failure at Pocono didn’t help the garage's confidence, this despite two wins on the season and being No. 1 in the Sprint Cup standings. As it stands, there are a number of drivers, including Joey Logano and Kyle Busch, to name two, you’d take over Harvick right now.
And that’s the thing: The season is so long, with so many ups and downs, hot streaks and cold streaks, that it’s easy to forget how good a driver can be. He locked up his Chase bid a long time ago, so he could be waiting to get serious.
With five races to go, and having won at The Glen back in 2006 (and finishing fourth a year ago), a strong showing by Harvick will remind everyone who has the hardware and who wants to keep it through 2016.
It's Now or Never for AJ Allmendinger
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When the usual drivers win a Cup race, it seems to routine. Yes, they’re happy, but it’s so…boring.
So when AJ Allmendinger won at Watkins Glen a year ago1 to claim his first Cup win and clinch a spot in the Chase, it was one of the most energized and inspiring scenes you ever saw on Victory Lane.
Allmendinger recalled on NASCAR.com:
"Winning a race, no one can take that away from you. You feel like you are king of the world for one day. At that moment, you are the best there is. I just remember on that day it was the best I had ever driven in my life.
On that day, I had to man up and say, 'I'm not letting this race get taken away from me.' It's something that no matter whether if I win again or not, it's memories that I will always have.
"
This is it for the No. 47 team. Its average finish is no better than 16.2 (Atlanta) at all other tracks. At Watkins Glen, ’Dinger has an average finish of 7.8, with four top 10s, two top fives and the lone win.
He must win his way into the Chase, and this is the one track where he’s no longer a long shot or even a dark horse. He’s a favorite at The Glen.
Swing away, 'Dinger.
*1: Look no further than the cover photo to this slideshow. That win was more than a win.
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