Men's NCAA Tournament 2026 Chaos Bracket That Could Actually Happen
The madness of March has finally returned thanks to the official unveiling of the 2026 men's NCAA tournament bracket.
And, friends, it's time for chaos.
If your favorite team is playing, of course, you'll be rooting for them. Beyond that program of choice, however, pulling for the underdogs and cheering for upsets are essential parts of watching the Big Dance.
After a relatively tame set of results in last year's tournament, we're hoping for mayhem in 2026. Our task today is predicting some of that excitement.
As always, a reminder that the following picks are not my formal predictions—those will be released with my colleagues in the coming days. Rather, this is a chaos-filled scenario built on seemingly sensible results.
East Region
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Biggest First-Round Upset: No. 14 North Dakota State over No. 3 Michigan State
In five straight games, Michigan State's ordinarily solid defense has yielded at least 10 three-pointers. North Dakota State has five players who attempt three-plus triples per game and connect at a 36.9 percent clip or better. This would be a massive upset, but NDSU might just frustrate MSU from beyond the arc.
Biggest Second-Round Upset: No. 8 Ohio State over No. 1 Duke
Duke won an ACC tournament crown without Caleb Foster, but his absence on the perimeter may quickly be noticeable. Bruce Thornton and John Mobley Jr. are high-volume shooters who knock down 40-plus percent of their long-range attempts. If the Buckeyes can tighten up their defense inside the arc, an early exit could befall a short-handed Duke squad.
Final Four Team: No. 2 Connecticut Huskies
Until a lopsided loss to St. John's in the Big East tournament, UConn had an argument to land a No. 1 seed. Instead, the Huskies landed a No. 2 position that would look awfully nice if both Duke and MSU lost in the opening rounds.
South Region
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Biggest First-Round Upset: No. 13 Troy over No. 4 Nebraska
If an underdog wins the rebounding battle, odd things can happen. Troy matches up well stature-wise to Nebraska, and Thomas Dowd is a vacuum on the glass with 17 double-doubles this season. The potential return of Theo Seng (knee) would only bolster Troy's ability to stun the Huskers.
Biggest Second-Round Upset: No. 11 VCU over No. 3 Illinois
Illinois is a fun offense to watch, provided you enjoy a barrage of threes. But on the defensive side, the Illini have the country's lowest rate of turnovers forced—and VCU is solidly above average at protecting the ball. Mix in VCU ranking 46th nationally from the perimeter, and Illinois would face a serious test in the second round.
Final Four Team: No. 5 Vanderbilt Commodores
The path to the program's first-ever Final Four theoretically will require a victory over top-seeded Florida. Well, the 'Dores just accomplished that in the SEC tournament anyway. Vandy is loaded with scoring threats, led by a pair of playmakers in Tyler Tanner and Duke Riley.
Midwest Region
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Biggest First-Round Upset: No. 12 Akron over No. 5 Texas Tech
Not only did Akron finish 29-5 and win the MAC tournament, but the Zips also return five players who appeared in March Madness last season. That experience should not be underestimated as the Zips attempt to knock off Texas Tech, which is without star forward JT Toppin (knee) and has dropped its last three contests.
Biggest Second-Round Upset: No. 9 Saint Louis over No. 1 Michigan
Look, I'm not suggesting you adopt this possibility as your bracket personality. What I am saying, however, is that Michigan has a considerable height advantage that probably would encourage Saint Louis to launch a ton of threes. Well, the Billikens have six legitimately dangerous three-point shooters who combine for the nation's third-best perimeter clip at 40.1 percent. What if they get hot?
Final Four Team: No. 2 Iowa State Cyclones
Iowa State has a roster built to threaten Michigan anyway, and that'd be an awesome showdown in the Elite Eight. If the Wolverines are out of the picture, though, ISU could ride its powerful balance to a first modern-era Final Four trip.
West Region
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Biggest First-Round Upset: No. 12 High Point over No. 5 Wisconsin
Wisconsin is among the country's most prolific teams from long distance, and High Point has amassed a staggering 90 points per game. May the best offense win! Sometimes, it's really as simple as whichever team hits more shots, and that looks like the situation in this 5/12 contest.
Biggest Second-Round Upset: No. 11 Texas over No. 3 Gonzaga
Texas must emerge from a First Four rematch with North Carolina State and topple sixth-seeded BYU to reach the second round. Nevertheless, the Longhorns could be a thorn when they—at their best—control the pace by rebounding well and attempting a bunch of free throws.
Final Four Team: No. 1 Arizona Wildcats
Although the 2023 tournament didn't include a No. 1 team in the Final Four, that otherwise hadn't happened since 2011. Arizona, which boasts an absurdly deep rotation with a variety of playmakers and pesky defenders, stands as our lone top-seeded representative in Indianapolis.
Final Four
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Inside the lovely Lucas Oil Stadium, the 2026 national semifinals would feature UConn against Vandy and Arizona opposite Iowa State.
The first contest offers a neat juxtaposition. Six-time champion UConn—which celebrated back-to-back titles in 2023 and 2024—would be aiming to reclaim glory, whereas Vandy has never advanced past the Sweet 16 in the modern era.
Conversely, the second clash is a familiar one. Arizona won both meetings this season, but only by two points in the recent Big 12 tournament game.
My winners? UConn and Arizona.
In a classic Dog vs. Cat battle, the latter finally sheds its decades-long drought. Arizona last cut down the nets in 1997, but the Wildcats' well-rounded roster is surging into March Madness and primed for a championship run.
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